NFL Draft 2021: Trey Lance, Justin Fields or Mac Jones No. 3 to the 49ers?

The 2021 NFL Draft truly begins at pick No. 3 with the highly anticipated San Francisco 49ers selection. 

The 49ers traded with the Dolphins for the third pick and will be deciding between quarterbacks Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Trey Lance. 

San Francisco brass is expected to be “heavily involved” in Lance’s workout on Monday, per ESPN’s Dan Graziano.

The betting markets reacted to the news swiftly. Lance’s odds to be the No. 3 pick dropped to +175 from + 300 on Sunday afternoon. 

Justin Fields remains the favorite at +100 with Mac Jones also at +175 after being as high as -300 about a week ago. 

This is pretty ho-hum based on the news cycle. Players that are linked to a team will see their odds shorten purely based on smoke. So, how much smoke is around Lance to San Francisco? 

I am not putting too much stock into it. I wrote last week that I saw value in grabbing Justin Fields under 4.5 and think he is still the guy who goes third.

While Lance is connected to quarterback coach John Beck, so is Fields. I think this is part of the due diligence process from San Francisco and the recent odds shift creates opportunities elsewhere.

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I now see Jones as a good bet at +175.  

While I still don’t see the Alabama signal caller as a QB ready to lead a San Fran roster that is built for a Super Bowl run, I can’t deny the smoke around it.

I bought the dip on Fields in the market, and I see the odds shift for Lance a way to buy a dip on Jones at +175, giving myself multiple ways to come out with profit when the third pick is announced. I expect Lance's odds to grow as we get closer to Draft night.

I don’t buy Lance as a threat to go third at this point in time. With more than a week until the draft, expect more movements in this market.

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