Bills at Titans: Best Bet, Top Trend, Player Prop Value

• On Monday night, the Buffalo Bills (4-1) will take on the Tennessee Titans (3-2) at Nissan Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EST and will be broadcast live on ESPN.

• The Bills are 6-point road favorites (-260 moneyline) while the over/under is 53.5 points.

• The Bills (-260) are a ⭐⭐⭐ value, per BetQL. Under Sean McDermott, Buffalo has gone 16-5 SU after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game (+13.5 units). They’ve also gone 8-1 SU under McDermott after gaining 375+ total yards in two consecutive games (+9.1 units) and have gone 27-6 SU (+17.2 units) as a favorite under his leadership.

• The Bills have gone 10-0 vs. the 1st half spread after scoring 35+ points in their last game under McDermott. Buffalo is a -3.5 first half favorite in this game.

• The model is projecting Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs to catch 6 passes for 100 yards and a TD. Therefore, over 84.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) is a solid value.

Setting The Scene

Remember when the Buffalo Bills lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1? It seems like a long time ago. Since then, they’ve recorded two shutout wins: 35-0 at the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 and then 40-0 at home against the Houston Texans in Week 4. They also earned a 43-21 win over the Washington Football Team in Week 3 and a statement game on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs (38-20) last week. It’s easy to make the claim that this is the best team in the NFL right now.

Bills quarterback Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level. Through five games, he amassed 1,370 passing yards, 188 rushing yards, 14 total touchdowns (two rushing) and two interceptions. Four of his targets have over 214 receiving yards, led by Stefon Diggs, who has 28 catches for 374 yards and a touchdown. Overall, Buffalo’s 34.4 points per game led the NFL heading into Week 6, as did their +21.6 average scoring margin (by a wide margin).

It’s been an up-and-down season for the Tennessee Titans. After getting dominated by the Arizona Cardinals (38-13) in their season-opener, they earned a 33-30 overtime win at the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2. Tennessee then followed that up with a 25-16 win at home against the Indianapolis Colts, shockingly lost a 27-24 overtime road game against the New York Jets and then easily took care of the Jacksonville Jaguars (37-19) last week. Key injuries to AJ Brown and Julio Jones certainly contributed to their inconsistency, but it’s been very difficult to get a read on this team.

Tennessee’s offense completely runs through Derrick Henry, as it has in the last few years. He has 142 carries for 640 yards and seven touchdowns heading into this game and has been the three-down workhorse his team needs him to be. With Jones and Brown back, it should be fascinating to see if Ryan Tannehill (1,251 passing yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions) has a big game through the air.

Value Bet: Bills (-260) ⭐⭐⭐

The Bills (-260) are a ⭐⭐⭐ value, per BetQL, and have gone 27-6 SU (+17.2 units) as a favorite under coach Sean McDermott.

Under McDermott, Buffalo has gone 16-5 SU after gaining 6+ yards per play in their previous game (+13.5 units). The Bills averaged 8.1 yards per play last game against the Chiefs and 6.3 in their Week 4 win over the Texans.

They’ve also gone 8-1 SU under McDermott after gaining 375+ total yards in two consecutive games (+9.1 units). Buffalo had 450 yards against Houston and then 436 against Kansas City.

Top Trend: Bills 10-0 vs. 1st Half Spread

The Bills have gone 10-0 vs. the 1st half spread after scoring 35+ points in their last game under McDermott. Buffalo is a -3.5 first half favorite in this game. As mentioned above, they scored 38 points in last week’s win, which activates this trend. 

It’s tough to ignore a trend with this sample size that’s undefeated, isn’t it?

Click the button at the bottom of this article to see which team you should bet on.

Player Prop: Diggs Over 84.5 Receiving Yards

The model is projecting Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs to catch 6 passes for 100 yards and a TD. Therefore, over 84.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) is a solid value.

Shockingly, Diggs has been held between 60 and 69 receiving yards in four of his five games this season despite seeing 47 targets, including double-digit targets three times. That’s in part due to the emergence of Cole Beasley and tight end Dalton Knox and the addition of Emmanuel Sanders. However, there’s also going to be some positive regression coming his way in the form of a breakout game. 

BetQL is projecting this to be that breakout game.

No team in the NFL had given up as many receiving yards to wideouts than the Titans (1,122) heading into Week 6. (That amounts to 224.4 yards to the position per game.) Further, receivers have been targeted by Josh Allen 70.3% of the time in Buffalo's offense (3rd-highest rate) heading into this week. 

Diggs’ 26.9% target share is elite and is well ahead of Beasley (19.4%), Sanders (17.7%) and Knox (13.7%) in this offense. Therefore, there are many signs pointing to a big week, as projected by the model. 

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