Russell Wilson Faces Major Test Against 49ers On Monday Night Football
The NFL MVP candidate squares off against the league's top pass defense
- NFL fans are in store for a phenomenal Monday Night Football matchup when the Seattle Seahawks (7-2) take on their NFC West Division rival San Francisco 49ers (8-0).
- San Fran is the only remaining undefeated team in the NFL and will square off against Seattle for the first time this season (they will also meet in Week 17).
- The Niners opened as six-point favorites and, per BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard, remain six-point favorites a week later. Further, San Francisco is a -270 moneyline favorite and the over/under is set at 47.5 points.
- BetQL’s NFL Model lists a five-star spread bet, five-star moneyline bet and four-star over/under bet for this game. Keep reading to find out what one of them is.
- All data presented is as of Monday morning.
Per BetQL’s NFL public betting dashboard, 52 percent of total bets have been placed on the Seahawks +6 and 69 percent have been wagered on Seattle’s +220 moneyline. Since the spread creates some beneficial wiggle room for Seahawks truthers and the moneyline has some upside, that’s not entirely shocking.
After all, Seattle has won five of their last six games and the team has gone 24-8 ATS in Weeks 10-13 under Pete Carroll. Plus, Russell Wilson is playing like a legitimate MVP candidate and has put the team on his back. He has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 2,505 yards, 22 touchdowns, just one interception and has added three rushing touchdowns with 203 additional yards on the ground.
But, this 49ers defense is elite. Heck, they might be the best unit in the entire NFL. Incredibly, they’ve allowed just 138.1 passing yards per game (112.7 per contest at home), both of which are the best marks in the entire league. That’s bad news for Wilson and his pass-catchers. The 49ers are in the middle of the pack when it comes to rushing defense (102.9 yards per game — 14th). Therefore, expect a high volume of carries for Chris Carson, but don’t necessarily expect a 30-point output by Wilson and company.
In today’s pass-happy league, Kyle Shanahan’s offense features a run-heavy approach. In fact, they’ve called rushing plays an NFL-high 55.9 percent of the time this season and have managed 171.1 rushing yards per game (only the Baltimore Ravens average more). Further, they’ve put up 29.4 points per game, good for the third-best mark.
When Jimmy Garoppolo threw four touchdown passes against the Arizona Cardinals last week, he also eclipsed 300 yards passing for the first time this season. He had thrown four touchdown passes total in his four previous games combined. If he can use that performance as momentum while getting Emmanuel Sanders and George Kittle going, this offense could reach new heights, assuming that the running back duo of Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida can produce at their 2019 standard levels.
Garoppolo and San Francisco’s passing attack could be busy in this matchup, as the Seahawks rank 28th in passing yards allowed per game (278.1) and 13th in rushing yards allowed per game (102.7). While those numbers could be skewed by game script (opponents tend to pass the ball more when they’re trailing), it’s important to note that this Seahawks defense is nowhere close to as daunting as the “Legion of Boom” days.
BetQL’s NFL Model labels the 49ers’ -270 moneyline as a five-star bet (maximum value) in this matchup. Check out BetQL’s NFL Best Bets Dashboard to find out who the algorithm likes for the spread and over/under bets.
You can find all updated NFL lines, odds and spreads at BetQL!