Sun Belt Football - Over Under Picks

BetQL's College Football Over Under Picks for This Week:

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Nebraska vs Minnesota

Despite an impressive rally last week, the Nebraska Cornhuskers fell short against Michigan. The pressure is back on Scott Frost and company this week when they travel to face the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Gophers are still trying to put that embarrassing loss to Bowling Green behind them while also getting their offense on track, which is why the over/under of 48 points in this game could make for an intriguing bet.

On paper, the Minnesota offense should be one of the best in the Big Ten. They have an experienced quarterback in Tanner Morgan and a strong rushing attack. However, they’ve combined to score just 30 points over their last two games. With Mohamed Ibrahim lost for the season and Trey Potts hospitalized after the game against Purdue two weeks ago, there are now serious questions about the Minnesota rushing attack. Meanwhile, Morgan looks like a shadow of the player he was two years ago. He’s completed just 52% of his passes this year with just one touchdown pass in his last three games. The silver lining is the Minnesota defense has allowed just 27 total points over the last three games, albeit against weaker competition.

As for the Cornhuskers, they showed what they’re capable of doing offensively in the second half of their loss to Michigan last week. They also scored 56 points the previous week in a win over Northwestern. When he’s playing well, Adrian Martinez is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. He’s looked much better as a passer this season than in the past, although he’s also Nebraska’s leading rusher by a wide margin, which puts a lot on his shoulders. Against a tough Minnesota defense, the Cornhuskers could run hot and cold the way they did last week, which could lead to a low-scoring game, especially with the underrated Nebraska defense allowing less than 18 points per game.

Stanford vs Washington State

It’s been an up and down season for the Stanford Cardinal, as David Shaw’s team has wins over USC and Oregon but has lost to UCLA and Arizona State. The Cardinal is also coming off a poor offensive showing against Arizona State last week, scoring just 10 points. They hope to get back on track this week when they travel to play the Washington State Cougars. With Stanford’s offense looking sluggish last week, the over/under for this game is a modest 51.5 points.

In the past, 51.5 points would have been on the low side for any game involving Washington State. But the Cougars have had a different MO this year, scoring just 24.3 points per game while conceding just 24.8 points per game. Wazzou has finally decided on Jayden de Laura as the team’s quarterback. He threw for nearly 400 yards last week in a 31-24 win over Oregon State, so the Washington State offense is trending upward. However, the Cougars also have a modest rushing attack while de Laura has struggled with ball security. The Washington State defense also has a lot to prove despite playing well against lesser competition.

Likewise, this year’s Stanford team looks a little different from past years. The Cardinal hasn’t been able to develop a stable rushing attack, putting a lot of pressure on quarterback Tanner McKee. To his credit, McKee has played excellent since assuming the starting job. But his 356 passing yards last week were canceled out by five sacks and three interceptions. Keep in mind that Stanford’s offense is fairly one-dimensional, which doesn’t give McKee a lot of room for error. Meanwhile, the Stanford defense has held its own this year but has given up a minimum of 23 points in every game, which could force a high-scoring game if McKee can avoid turnovers.

Arizona vs Colorado

The Arizona Wildcats might actually have a chance to win their first game of the season this week when they visit the Colorado Buffaloes. These two teams are a combined 1-9 on the season with Colorado just 1-4. But if picking a winner in this game is too challenging, bettors may want to consider the over/under of just 44.5 points.

The winless Wildcats have been a disaster offensively this year, failing to reach 20 points in any of their five games. That was even the case in their loss to FCS opponent Northern Arizona. Three different quarterbacks have been given an opportunity to play, but none have provided an answer for Arizona. Jordan McCloud got the bulk of the playing time last week but couldn’t get the Wildcats into the end zone. A lackluster rushing attack isn’t helping and neither is the Arizona defense. They’ve given up at least 34 points in three of their five games this year, including their two Pac-12 losses, so reaching the over/under is possible if the Wildcats continue to struggle defensively. 

Of course, that’s up to the Colorado offense, which has scored 34 total points in the team’s four games against FBS opponents. Redshirt freshman quarterback Brendon Lewis is still going through some growing pains, completing just 53% of his passes with two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Colorado backfield of Jarek Broussard and Alex Fontenot has also been held in check for most of the season, even with Lewis able to use his athleticism to help with the running game. On the flip side, the Colorado defense has also been vulnerable this year, especially since the start of conference play. In fairness, the Colorado offense isn’t doing the defense any favors. But the Buffs have still allowed at least 30 points in three straight games, so it’s possible for either offense to get going a little despite the low over/under.

Toledo vs Central Michigan

There should be an interesting matchup in the MAC this week when the Toledo Rockets visit the Central Michigan Chippewas. Both teams are 1-1 in conference play this year, so this game will be pivotal in the West Division race. This game figures to be a close and competitive game, which means the only question is whether it’ll be a classic MAC shootout or if the quality of both teams will lead to a low-scoring affair, especially with the over/under set at just 51.5 points.

The Rockets haven’t quite taken off offensively this year, scoring just 20 points in last week’s loss to Northern Illinois and only 22 points in their other MAC game this season. Toledo has used two quarterbacks this year, although freshman Dequan Finn seemed to have provided some answers last week, albeit in a losing effort. Finn isn’t an accomplished passer, but he’s yet to throw an interception this season and helps himself by being the team’s second-leading rusher. Along with Bryant Koback, the Rockets have a strong ground game, although they are more functional than explosive offensively. Toledo has also been sound defensively this year, as Notre Dame is the only team to score more than 22 points against them.

On the other side, Central Michigan has been more apt to play high-scoring games. Daniel Richardson seems to have finally won the quarterback competition after the Chippewas played two quarterbacks for the first few games of the season. Richardson threw two picks last week, but he’s been otherwise able to throw the ball downfield. The Chippewas have a stable rushing attack, which has allowed them to score at least 21 points in every game this season. On the other hand, Central Michigan has given up at least 27 points in every game this year outside of their win over Robert Morris. If that trend continues, the only chance Central Michigan will have in this game is if the total points exceeded 51.5.

San Diego State vs San Jose State

On Friday night, the no. 24 San Diego State Aztecs will try to keep their undefeated record intact against the San Jose Spartans, the defending champions of the Mountain West. The Aztecs are favored on the road, but oddsmakers are also expecting a low-scoring game with the over/under set at just 42 points.

As has become customary, the San Diego State defense is one of the best in the country on paper. Outside of a high-scoring win over Utah, the Aztecs have held teams to 21 points or less in every game this year. They were borderline dominant last week against New Mexico, allowing less than 200 total yards and just seven points. At the same time, questions linger about the San Diego State offense. Behind Greg Bell, the rushing attack is one of the best in the country. However, the Aztecs are averaging just 121 passing yards per game. Oddly enough, they’ve still managed to score at least 28 points in every game this year. But if they’re met with any resistance, Jordon Brookshire is not the type of quarterback to put a team on his back, as he’s completed just 47% of his passes this season.

Meanwhile, the Spartans have quarterback questions of their own with Nick Starkel sidelined indefinitely. Nick Nash has proven to be a suitable backup and gives San Jose State more of a running threat at quarterback than Starkel. However, he completed just half of his passes last week against Colorado State and could struggle against a top-notch SDSU defense. The Spartans have one of the least productive rushing attacks in the country, so they’ll need a big performance from Nash if they hope to score points against the Aztecs. Finally, the wild card in this game could be the San Jose State defense, which has allowed at least 30 points in back-to-back games. If that continues, this game could exceed 42 points because the Aztecs have proven that they can score points against lackluster defensive teams.

Michigan State vs Indiana

The no. 10 Michigan State Spartans have become one of the biggest surprises in the country this season, not to mention a genuine contender in the Big Ten East Division. They’ll try to keep that undefeated record intact this week when they visit the Indiana Hoosiers, who have become one of the biggest disappointments in the Big Ten this season. Much like past seasons, MSU’s bread and butter has been on defense, which is a big reason why the over/under for this game is just 48.5 points.

Only one team has been able to score more than 21 points against the Spartans, and that team was somehow Western Kentucky. The Michigan State defense has been able to get a good handle on the running game, which is usually a good recipe for a low-scoring game. However, the Spartans aren't necessarily playing defensive slugfests week after week. The MSU offense has been far better than expected. Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker is less than 100 yards away from reaching 1,000 rushing yards on the season while averaging over seven yards per carry. At the same time, Payton Thorne is averaging 10 yards per pass attempt on the season. In other words, the Spartans have an offense that can create big plays, making a low-scoring affair less likely.

Of course, the Hoosiers were shut out by Penn State in their last game. They also managed just six points when they played Iowa in their season opener, so points have been in short supply against some of the better teams in the Big Ten. Plus, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is out indefinitely because of a separated shoulder, so his status for this week’s game is still up in the air. The Indiana rushing attack has been subpar this year, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry. That leaves open the possibility that the Hoosiers could be limited to 10 points or less for the third time this season, which would make it hard for this game to reach 49 points, even if the Michigan State offense has a productive game.

Florida vs LSU

There seems to be a rivalry game in the SEC every week, and this week it’s time for the no. 20 Florida Gators and LSU Tigers to renew acquaintances. While the Gators are road favorites in this game, it’s the Tigers who have gotten the better of the rivalry lately, including a massive upset over a top-10 Florida team last year. That could make the over/under of 59 points a better option for bettors.

On the surface, both of these teams have shortcomings offensively. For the Gators, they are a little too reliant on quarterback Emory Jones, especially when it comes to his running ability. Jones and backup quarterback Anthony Richardson are the team’s leading rushers, which is unusual. To his credit, Jones has made some big throws when he’s needed to. However, his decision-making has been lacking at times, which is why he’s already thrown seven interceptions this season. Granted, the Gators have been able to steamroll lesser teams. But just a couple of weeks ago, the Florida offense managed just 13 points and could get little going against Kentucky.

On the flip side, LSU’s problems have been a little different. The Tigers have been one of the least productive rushing teams in the SEC, gaining just 2.9 yards per carry. That has shifted the pressure to Max Johnson, who has responded well, throwing 17 touchdown passes in six games. However, Johnson has had most of his success when throwing the ball to Kayshon Boutte, who has been lost to an injury for the rest of the season. That injury could have serious consequences for the LSU offense moving forward. Boutte has nine receiving touchdowns, which is tied for the national lead, while nobody else on the LSU roster has more than two receiving touchdowns this year. If the Tigers don’t find suitable playmakers to replace Boutte’s production, it’ll be hard for this game to become the kind of shootout that would surpass 59 total points.

Ole Miss vs Tennessee

The most ambitious over/under in college football this week comes from the game featuring the no. 13 Ole Miss Rebels and the Tennessee Volunteers. Most of the time, the Big 12 provides games with an over/under of 80 or more points. But this time around, it’s a pair of SEC teams that are all offense and no defense that are set to entertain fans and make bettors ponder whether two teams can combine for that many points.

If last week’s Ole Miss game is any indication, the answer is clearly yes. The Rebels beat Arkansas 52-51 last week, showing just how good they can be offensively and how much room for improvement there is for them defensively. Matt Corral has emerged in the Heisman conversation thanks to 12 passing touchdowns and eight rushing touchdowns in five games. Of course, Corral is averaging close to 300 passing yards per game, and that’s without throwing an interception, so he moves the ball without making mistakes. At the same time, the Ole Miss defense has allowed 42 and 51 points, respectively, in their first two SEC games of the season, which is more or less what we expected from Lane Kiffin’s team heading into the season.

Meanwhile, Josh Heupel is living up to his reputation as a great offensive coach by getting the Tennessee offense going over the last couple of weeks. Hendon Hooker appears to be the answer at quarterback for the Vols. His mobility combined with the threat of running back Tiyon Evans has turned the Vols into one of the top rushing teams in the conference. At the same time, Hooker has been an effective passer as well, averaging 9.5 yards per pass with 13 touchdowns and just one interception. In back-to-back wins over Missouri and South Carolina, the Volunteers have scored a total of 107 points, which explains why the over/under for this game is 81.5 points and why it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ole Miss and Tennessee surpass that total on Saturday night.

Duke vs Virginia

Just about anything can happen in the ACC Coastal Division, and that includes this week’s matchup between the Duke Blue Devils and Virginia Cavaliers. Both teams already have two losses in conference play but are still very much alive to win the Coastal Division. That means both the result of the game and the over/under of 69 points will be tough to call without taking a closer look.

The Blue Devils have deceptive numbers offensively. They’ve moved the ball well all season, particularly on the ground with Mataeo Durant close to 800 yards on the season while averaging 5.3 yards per carry. However, they haven’t always been able to finish drives in the end zone, particularly in a lopsided loss to North Carolina a couple of weeks ago. Even in a losing effort, the Duke offense got a little more on track last week. Quarterback Gunnar Holmberg has quietly had a good season, connecting on 72.5% of his passes. But he’s also thrown an interception in four straight games, which is part of the reason the Blue Devils haven’t scored as many points as one might expect. If that changes, the Blue Devils could find themselves in some shootouts, as they’ve also allowed over 30 points in three straight games.

As for the Cavaliers, they’re getting in the habit of playing high-scoring and compelling games. They benefited from a missed field goal in a 30-28 win over Miami a couple of weeks ago and then came storming back in the fourth quarter to beat Louisville 34-33 last week. Of course, the Cavs are giving up over 34 points per game in ACC play, so they need their offense to be consistent in order to win games. With a mediocre rushing attack, the pressure has fallen on the shoulders of quarterback Brennan Armstrong. Much like Holmberg, Armstrong has caused himself trouble with six interceptions in six games. He’s also taken a few more hits than you’d like to see. But when he’s not getting sacked or picked off, Armstrong is pushing the ball downfield, already surpassing the passing yards he amassed in nine games last season.

BYU vs Baylor, 50.5

After suffering their first loss of the season last week, the no. 19 BYU Cougars face another tough test this week when they hit the road to face the Baylor Bears. In a few years, this will be a Big 12 conference game, but unlike a typical Big 12 game, oddsmakers aren’t expecting this to be a shootout. The over/under is set at a modest 50.5 points, although there’s a chance that this game could easily exceed that point total.

Outside of Baylor’s loss to Oklahoma State, the Bears have been in good form offensively this year. Baylor has a top-20 rushing attack behind the tandem of Abram Smith and Tristan Ebner, which has helped quarterback Gerry Bohanon to have a breakout season. Bohanon has completed 66% of his passes while averaging over nine yards per pass, giving the Baylor offense plenty of balance. Even more impressive, Bohanon hasn’t thrown an interception and has only taken five sacks this season. That means that Bears aren’t seeing their drives stall because of sacks or end on turnovers, increasing their chances of putting points on the board. After putting up 45 points last week, Baylor could nearly match this week’s point total with a similar performance.

Of course, BYU has been solid defensively this year, holding three straight Pac-12 teams to 17 points or less to start the season. Even in last week’s loss to Boise State, the Cougars kept the Boise State offense under wraps for most of the game but were hurt by turnovers by the offense. Boise State scored two touchdowns on drives of 25 yards or less that followed turnovers, putting the BYU defense in a bad position. That being said, turnovers haven’t been a huge issue for the Cougars, even though they’ve had multiple injuries at the quarterback position. Regular starter Jaren Hall is back and threw the ball well last week outside of his one interception. The Cougars are also able to stay balanced offensively with running back Tyler Allgeier having a strong season, so there’s a chance that the Cougars can get their offense back on track following last week’s loss if they can just avoid turnovers. 

During the college football season, there is no better place to come to for weekly picks than BetQL. Whether you are a spread, money line, or total bettor, BetQL has you covered. Every week during the season, including Week 1, we will unlock 3-4 games to let you experience what we have to offer first hand. You will learn how we work and everything we have to offer for each game, including all the data and analytics that we use to make our pick. For each of the free picks that we offer during Week 1, you will be able to see our projected score, which side our college football model is projecting, all the public betting info and percentages, and which side the sharps are on for each of these games. We also will have entire previews written by our college football experts giving away their picks and thoughts on each game. All of that information will be available to you no matter how you bet, so make sure to check out BetQL every week after that for all the information you need to make smarter and more informed bets on college football.

College Football Over Under Picks Explained

Betting on the over under total is very tough in college because games are much more unpredictable with these young athletes out on the field. Even the most talented players have poor games and stretches throughout their college career, which makes it that much harder to predict the final score of each game. Have no fear though, because BetQL is here to get you all the best possible picks for the total each and every game, each and every week. We rank each of our bets on a scale of 1 to 5 Stars, with 5 Stars being the most profitable bets each week. Our computer model is able to identify trends and player statistics to see who is performing up to par, and who is slumping. We use real time data and analysis to predict each score, so picking the over under total has never been easier. When there is a large discrepancy between our model projection and the actual line, we give the bet a 5 Star rating so you know you’re making a smart bet. Each pick will include analysis on how the model projected its bet, as well as where the model would have the game lined. You also get the picks faster, because our model begins working on them as soon as the line opens. With BetQL, there is no more worrying about which games to bet on during the college football season. We even adapt in-game, so you can find the best value while the ball is in the air. We have you covered for every game, from the first kickoff of the season until the last second ticks off the clock in the College Football Championship. No other sport betting service can get you the picks faster and with a higher winning percentage than BetQL, meaning we will keep you ahead of the bookmakers all season long. If you want to start making the most informed college football picks and getting the best closing line value around, then subscribe to BetQL and start beating the books.

College Football Totals Betting Explained

As stated above, betting the over under is one of the hardest things to do in a college football game because of the incredible amount of unpredictability involved in the sport. However, betting over unders is a pretty straightforward way of betting that doesn’t require much information to understand how it works. The total is a very common way for sports bettors to wager on a game, and you will see below why even the most inexperienced sports gambler will have an easy time understanding the basics of total betting. We have compiled an example that explains how betting the total works, as well as explaining the odds that are associated with making a total bet on the over under. Check it out below.

College Football Over Under Example: Notre Dame vs. Clemson (O56,-110) (U56, -110)

Betting the total in a college football game is hard when it comes to picking a winner, but not hard to understand how it works. As you can see above, the total for this game between Notre Dame and Clemson is set at 56. This simply means that the total score between both teams when combined is projected to be 56 points. Betting the over for this game would imply that you believe the total amount of points scored during the game will be higher than 56. If the game lands on exactly 56 points scored, the bet pushes and you get the money back that you wagered on the game. A bet on the under would imply that you believe the total score of the game will be under 56 points. The bet would also push should the number land on 56. So, as you can see, it’s pretty simple to understand. You are just betting if the total amount of points scored in the game is higher or lower than the number listed.

Now for the second part, the actual odds you have to pay to make the bet. This is fairly simple to understand once you know what the numbers mean. In this instance, both spreads are listed as -110. What this simply means is that in order to win $100, you must bet $110 dollars. The amounts do not have to be this small or large either, as it would mean the same thing with any amount. An $11 wager would win you $10, while an $1100 dollar wager would win you $1000, and so on. This extra price you have to pay is called “vigor” or “juice” on a line. Think of it like a tax you are having to pay the books to place your bet.

There are times when you will occasionally see a “plus-money” line with a spread bet, however, that is very rare. If you do see one, it will simply have a “+” instead of a “-“ in front of the number. Let’s say the number is +160. What this means is that if you bet $100 on this line, you would win $160. So you are not having to pay a tax at all, and instead, you are getting a much higher payout. Lines like these are always on a bet that is more unlikely to win, so you will have to be okay with the risk that involves being in the unfavorable situation.

Expert College Football Over Under Picks:

At BetQL, we know that sports bettors want the most options possible at their disposal before they place their hard-earned money on a college football game. Not only do we have our computer models picks on each game every week, but we have a team of experts working throughout the season to help you make your bets. This is a team of real people who work each week to crunch the numbers and do their own research to find you the best value on certain games. But that’s not where the options stop with BetQL. We have all the betting data you need from the sports books to figure out where the money is going, from public money percentage to sharp money. This lets you see where the big bets are being placed, and which side the sharp bettors are on.

One of the best ways, and most profitable ways, to bet the over under total is by looking at the sharp action. These numbers will tell you where all the huge tickets are going on a game, compared to where the small wagers are being placed. For example, one team may have a huge number of tickets on them compiling of 90% of the total bets placed on that game for that type of wager, while the other team only has 10%. However, that 10% team may have over 70% of the total money bet on the game, meaning that the bets placed on that team are very large amounts of money. This lets you separate the more inexperienced bettors from the big cats that are placing massive amounts of money on bets every single night. These gamblers are usually sharp bettors, people that gamble for a living and have inside sources that help them win bets. We have this data via our BetQL model that tells us the Sharp %, making sure you know where the pros are betting each and every game.

College Football Over Under Lines

One of the best things about BetQL is the lightning-fast speeds in which we are able to get our picks and projections out to our clients. As soon as the sportsbooks release their numbers on a game, we instantly update our database with the current number and pick based off of that number. This way, you get closing line value immediately, and are able to make a smart bet as soon as the number is released. The best part about it is that we always update our pick based on the current number that is listed at the books, so no matter what, you will always be getting the best value for your bet where ever the line is set at. Picking college football totals is one of the hardest tasks for any handicapper, but that task becomes much easier with computer models like BetQL. The computer simply is much faster sorting through all the data and analytics, able to do research in a fraction of the time it would take a human. This is how we are able to get you the information instantly, and continue to update that information the second a line moves.

When Do Our College Football Over Under Picks Come Out?

As stated above, there is no-one that is quicker to get their picks out than BetQL. We want to be sure that you get the best of the number and secure that closing line value before it is stripped away. Our picks go live the instant the odds come out, so you won’t have to wait on the experts to sort through all the research and data. Our computer does that in seconds after each game is played, so it is already able to make a pick as soon as the lines come out on which way the data is telling you to bet. BetQL is a faster way to make smarter and more informed bets.

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