BetQL Staff College Football Picks For SMU at UCF

Dan Karpuc: Over 61.5 Points
As seen in their last two games against good offenses, this SMU defense is going to have a difficult time on Wednesday night. At Maryland, they surrendered 34 points, and last time out against TCU they allowed 42. While UCF’s defense has statistically been better than SMU’s, they haven’t played a quality offensive opponent … until now.

Former Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai has thrown for 1,385 yards with 12 touchdowns and five interceptions through four games for SMU, and wide receiver Rashee Rice is off to an incredible start, amassing 34 catches for 565 yards and four touchdowns. The Mustangs offense will run through them. Meanwhile, QB John Rhys Plumlee has given this UCF offense a productive dual-threat option. He’s accumulated 827 passing yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions through four games, but also leads the team in rushing (404 yards) and rush attempts (69) and has found pay dirt four more times on the ground.

The tempo of this game should also be very fast. SMU ranks third out of 130 FBS teams in plays per game (84.7), while UCF ranks eighth (81.0). More plays equal more potential points. Give me the over.

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Lucy Burdge: UCF -140
UCF has won their last two games, while SMU has lost their last two, so I think UCF can take down SMU in this one. Some trends in favor of UCF are that Gus Malzahn in his career is 12-2 vs. teams with 28 or fewer possession minutes per game; 6-1 after gaining 275 or more rushing yards in two straight games; and 25-13 vs. teams averaging 250 or more passing yards per game. So I think UCF can keep their recent success going and beat SMU tonight.

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Brad Pinkerton: UCF ML + Over 59.5 + SMU Over 28.5 (+495 at DraftKings)

DraftKings is running a sweet promotion for a 50% same-game parlay boost on this game, so I'll use Lucy's pick on UCF with Dan's analysis on the game tempo and take over 59.5 on the game total plus over 27.5 for SMU, who could really push UCF in a high-scoring game. That SGP had +350 odds as of Wednesday morning, boosted 50% to +495 at DraftKings. If you don't already have DraftKings, take advantage of the welcome offer below and boost your own SGP tonight!

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