Picking Winners For Every 2024 College Football Conference

The college football season is approaching quickly and now is the perfect time to place futures on conference winners. After using exclusive BetMGM data and taking a look at each team in each conference, I compiled my favorite “to win conference” bets below at the sportsbook.

AAC: Memphis Tigers (+225)

Last season: 10-3 (6-2), Win In Liberty Bowl

Schedule: vs. North Alabama, vs. Troy, @ Florida State, @ Navy, vs. Middle Tennessee, @ South Florida, vs. North Texas, vs. Charlotte, @ UTSA, vs. Rice, vs. UAB, @ Tulane

Analysis: Veteran QB Seth Henigan is back, this team is loaded with skill position players and should have an elite defense. The Tigers ranked 6th in the nation in scoring offense last season and Henigan should be one of the most productive QB’s in the nation after racking up 10,764 yards, 79 touchdown passes compared to 25 interceptions so far in his collegiate career. The team loaded up in the transfer portal on the defensive side of the ball and addressed multiple pain points from last season. The key to winning will likely be establishing the run on the offensive end. With Houston, SMU, UCF and Cincinnati all gone, the path to the AAC title game and title is obvious for a team of Memphis’ caliber. Tulane (+400), Texas-San Antonio (+450) and South Florida (+650) check in after Memphis on the odds board. The media gave Memphis 23 of 30 first-place votes to win the AAC in the preseason poll.

Key To Winning: Last season, the Tigers went 10-0 when rushing for 100-plus yards and 0-3 when they didn’t. Therefore, establishing the run with South Carolina transfer running back Mario Anderson will be of utmost importance.

ACC: Virginia Tech Hokies (+1200)

Last season: 7-6 (5-3), Win In Military Bowl

Schedule: @ Vanderbilt, vs. Marshall, @ Old Dominion, vs. Rutgers, @ Miami FL, @ Stanford, vs. Boston College, vs. Georgia Tech, @ Syracuse, vs. Clemson, @ Duke, vs. Virginia

Analysis: The Hokies return 86% of their production from last season, which is the highest percentage in the entire nation, including 95% of their offensive production. Per BetMGM, Virginia Tech is their biggest liability in this market since a whopping 41% of the handle is backing the team. Their win total also moved to 8.5 since opening at 7.5. After starting 2-4 last year, coach Brent Pry’s second at the helm of the team, the Hokies won five of their last seven games and finished with a winning record for the first time since 2019. QB Kyron Drones (2,084 passing yards, 17 passing TD, 3 INT, 818 rushing yards, 5 rushing TD) broke out last season and should be one of the most dynamic players in the ACC at the helm of a fun offense, the team has a very solid defense and the toughest road battles they have are at Miami and Stanford. I love their schedule overall and am a believer in them on both sides of the ball. Florida State (+275), Clemson (+360), Miami (+450), NC State (+700) and Louisville (+750) all have shorter odds than VT, making them a really nice value option. At the ACC preseason media days, Pry said that he'd be disappointed if his team didn't make the ACC Championship Game this season, which highlights how high he is on his group.

Key To Winning: Limiting rushing yards will be a major focus for VT. Under Brent Pry, they’ve gone just 1-11 when surrendering more than 140 rushing yards, including 1-6 last season. In 2023, the Hokies went 6-0 when allowing less than 140 yards on the ground. Therefore, this should be a major area of focus in 2024.

Big Ten: Nebraska Cornhuskers (+5000)

Last season: 5-7 (3-6)

Schedule: vs. UTEP, vs. Colorado, vs. Northern Iowa, vs. Illinois, @ Purdue, vs. Rutgers, @ Indiana, @ Ohio State, vs. UCLA, @ USC, vs. Wisconsin, @ Iowa

Analysis: Via BetMGM, 7.7% of tickets (4th-most) and just 2.9% (T5th-most) of the handle is backing the Cornhuskers while Ohio State (+150, 25.5% tickets, 60.9% handle) and Penn State (+500, 31.1% tickets, 21.2% handle) have been the most attractive options. New highly-touted freshman QB Dylan Raiola decommitted from Georgia to join the program and will instantly become one of the top rookie names to watch in the entire country. The Huskers ranked 11th in the nation in total defense last season and will bring back DC Tony White, who got some HC consideration from other programs in the offseason. While games at Ohio State, at USC and at Iowa will be major tests at the end of the season, there’s a lot of optimism around this program and the value is clearly there at +5000. Ohio State (+150), Oregon (+200), Penn State (+525), Michigan (+700), USC (+2200), and Iowa (+4000) all have shorter odds than Nebraska, making the Huskers an awesome value to consider.

Key To Winning: It’s impossible for me to ignore what coach Matt Rhule managed to do in Year 3 of his previous two college stops at Temple (10-4) and Baylor (11-3) after going 2-10 and 1-11 respectively in his first seasons at those schools. He’s an expert rebuilder and with additional resources at Nebraska, I'm excited to see what he can do in this situation.

Big 12: Iowa State Cyclones (+1000)

Last Season: 7-6 (6-3), Loss In Liberty Bowl 

Schedule: vs. North Dakota, @ Iowa, vs. Arkansas State, @ Houston, vs. Baylor, @ West Virginia, vs. UCF, vs. Texas Tech, @ Kansas, vs. Cincinnati, @ Utah, vs. Kansas State

Analysis: According to BetMGM’s latest data, the Cyclones have attracted 3.9% of the tickets and 2.6% of the handle in this market while Colorado (+3000), Utah (+350), Oklahoma State (+700) and Kansas State (+350) have been the most popular options. Iowa State will return 85% of its production from last season, which is the 2nd-highest mark in Division I. Head coach Matt Campbell has had six winning seasons in seven years and went a very impressive 4-0 on the road down the stretch last season. QB Rocco Becht showed his potential with a 446-yard passing performance in the team’s Liberty Bowl loss to Memphis and he will get his top four receivers back. Defensively, the Cyclones ranked 2nd in the Big 12 last season and the team that finished first (Texas) is now a member of the SEC. They’ll return a load of talent and production on that side of the football and will be a force. Utah (+350), Kansas State (+350), Oklahoma State (+700), Kansas (+800) and UCF (+900) all have shorter odds, but I love ISU’s price at this number. 

Key To Winning: Establishing the run is going to be very important once again. ISU went 6-1 when rushing for at least 100 yards last season, they’re bringing back four starters on the offensive line and 2023 leading rusher Abu Sama will be joined by transfer Jaylon Jackson from Eastern Michigan in the backfield.

Conference USA: Liberty Flames (-210)

Last Season: 13-1 (8-0), Loss In Fiesta Bowl

Schedule: vs. Campbell, @ New Mexico State, vs. UTEP, vs. East Carolina, @ Appalachian State, vs. Florida International, @ Kennesaw State, vs. Jacksonville State, @ Middle Tennessee, @ Massachusetts, vs. Western Kentucky, @ Sam Houston

Analysis: Even though Liberty got massacred by Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl, they had a very impressive 2023 campaign and will have their sights set on a College Football Playoff berth in the expanded field if they go 13-0 to start the year once again (like last year). With a very easy schedule and weak Conference USA opponents, there’s simply no way I have interest in another program. Coach Jamey Chadwell’s up-tempo offense should continue to thrive with QB Kaidon Salter back after accounting for 44 touchdowns last year (32 passing, 12 rushing). Keep an eye on Western Kentucky (+475), the only other viable option in this conference, in my opinion, but it’s impossible for me not to love Liberty.

Key To Winning: Play adequate pass defense. That was the only real weakness of this team last year and losing in this regard will likely be the only way they lose.

MAC: Miami-OH Redhawks (+225)

Last Season: 11-3 (7-1), Loss In Cure Bowl

Schedule: @ Northwestern, vs. Cincinnati, @ Notre Dame, vs. Massachusetts, @ Toledo, @ Eastern Michigan, vs. Ohio, vs. Central Michigan, @ Ball State, vs. Kent State, vs. Northern Illinois, @ Bowling Green

Analysis: Fresh off an 11-3 year (7-1 as MAC champions), the Redhawks will return 74% of its production from last season, the 9th-highest mark in Division I. Miami will return sixth-year starting QB Brett Gabbert, four of five offensive line starters and the MAC Defensive Player of the Year: LB Matt Salopek. The Redhawks allowed just 15.9 points per game last season, which ranked 7th nationally, so it’s easy to be optimistic about that unit as a whole once again. Gabbert is one of the most experienced Division I quarterbacks and should be leaned on all year long, barring injury, after returning from a broken leg that knocked him out last season. Toledo (+325) has the next-shortest odds to win the conference.

Key To Winning: Learning from potential early-season losses against Northwestern, Cincinnati and Notre Dame will be important for this team. All three aforementioned teams are superior in terms of talent and two of the three will be on the road. When entering conference play with what will likely be an 0-3 overall record, Ohio will need to lean on their veteran leaders and coaching staff to stay focused in conference play.

Mountain West: Boise State Broncos (-110)

Last Season: 8-6 (6-2), Loss In LA Bowl

Schedule: @ Georgia Southern, @ Oregon, vs. Portland State, vs. Washington State, vs. Utah State, @ Hawai’i, @ UNLV, vs. San Diego State, vs. Nevada, @ San Jose State, @ Wyoming, vs. Oregon State

Analysis: The defending Mountain West champs are loaded at skill positions. RB Ashton Jeanty averaged 159.7 yards from scrimmage per game and scored 19 touchdowns last season and should be in the Heisman Trophy conversation if Boise State has a big year. USC transfer Malachi Nelson will likely be QB1. Former Ole Miss and Texas A&M 5-star WR Chris Marshall will get another chance to shine on the outside. Overall, there’s a lot to love for this offense with new OC Dirk Koetter at the helm. Defensively, this team should be similar to last year’s unit and it’s also worth mentioning that this could be the best special teams unit in the entire country. Kicker Jonah Dalmas is likely to set the all-time NCAA record for made field goals (he needs 18 and has made 24, 23 and 26 the last three seasons) and punter James Ferguson-Reynolds ranked 2nd in Division I with a 49.7-yard average last year. That ability to convert efficiently can make the difference between wins and losses. Boise State is the clear favorite in the conference, with Fresno State (+340) and UNLV (+600) behind them. Keep an eye on UNLV with former Holy Cross (Go Cross!) QB Matthew Sluka now under center after an historic career as a rusher at the position in FCS action.

Key To Winning: Solidifying QB1. With the dynamic Taylen Green now at Arkansas, Nelson will be competing with redshirt sophomore Maddux Madsen for the role. Since QB is the most important position on the field, figuring out which guy will be trusted as the starter will be essential, especially since this program has dealt with a lot of turnover at the position in recent years.

SEC: LSU Tigers (+900)

Last season: 10-3 (6-2), Win In ReliaQuest Bowl

Schedule: vs. USC, vs. Nicholls, @ South Carolina, vs. UCLA, vs. South Alabama, vs. Ole Miss, @ Arkansas, @ Texas A&M, vs. Alabama, @ Florida, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Oklahoma

Analysis: This is Brian Kelly’s magical third year at the helm of LSU. At Central Michigan in 2006, he went 9-4. At Cincinnati in 2009, he went 12-0. At Notre Dame, he went 12-1 with a BCS title game appearance. Now at LSU, he has a tough schedule in a ridiculously tough SEC, but the Tigers had the most efficient offense in the nation last year and should continue to operate in an elite way, even after losing Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and first-round picks Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. at wideout. QB Garrett Nussmeier is going to put up huge numbers behind an elite o-line (perhaps the best in the country) and Kelly added a number of impact players in the transfer portal. In case you missed it, Nussmeier threw for 395 yards and led a 98-yard game-winning drive to win the ReliaQuest Bowl when given the opportunity to take over for Daniels, who sat out to avoid injury before the NFL Draft. There are questions defensively, but I’m going to put my faith in Kelly and his track record rather than targeting a team with shorter odds due to the overall strength of the conference. Georgia (+200), Texas (+300), Ole Miss (+600) and Alabama (+750) all have shorter odds, but I love this price for LSU.

Key To Winning: Limit huge plays. The team ranked 115th in explosive run rate (18%) and 88th in explosive pass rate (15%) allowed last year and against the opponents on their schedule, they’re going to need to not only get stops, but prevent chunk plays.

Sun Belt: Texas State Bobcats (+350)

Last season: 8-5 (4-4), Win In First Responder Bowl

Schedule: vs. Lamar, vs. UTSA, vs. Arizona State, vs. Sam Houston, @ Troy, vs. Arkansas State, @ Old Dominion, vs. Louisiana, @ UL Monroe, vs. Southern Miss, vs. Georgia State, @ South Alabama

Analysis: I may be a bit biased because Texas State is my dynasty team in EA’s College Football 25, but I am a fan of 35-year-old head coach G.J. Kinne, who led this program to an upset over Baylor and 40-plus points six different times with a top-10 tempo and elite efficiency on the offensive end. After a very interesting offseason (which involved bringing in Arizona’s Jayden de Laura at QB, losing incumbent QB TJ Finley to the transfer portal and watching de Laura drop out of school due to a campus uprising about an off-field lawsuit before attracting James Madison’s star QB Jordan McCloud to transfer in), this offense is now locked and loaded to deliver some huge numbers once again. RB Ismail Mahdi, WR Kole Wilson and WR Joey Hobert combined for 27 touchdowns last year and should all be huge producers again. Defensively, this will be a solid group once again, but I’m most in love with their offensive potential, which makes them stand out in this conference and the main reason why they have an 8.5-win team total. Appalachian State (+275) has shorter odds, but I really like this price for Texas State.

Key To Winning: Give McCloud the green light under center. After beginning his college career at USF in 2019, he transferred to Arizona and then James Madison before ending up here at Texas State, but it was his play last season at JMU that showcased his potential. There, he completed 68.2% of his passes for 3,657 yards, 35 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and added eight rushing scores on the ground (with 276 additional yards there).