Should You Back Miami to Make the Expanded CFP?

ACC media days are underway in Charlotte as the conference gears up for the start of the 2024 season. Clemson and Florida State are dominating headlines with the two schools taking the conference to court in hopes of finding a way to leave the league. Both squads are also heavily talked about because of their talent, ranking among the top two in various ACC power rankings heading into the season. With so much focus on the Tigers and Seminoles, other conference teams are flying under the radar.

Ok, maybe Miami isn't exactly under the radar, but it isn't being talked about quite as much as the aforementioned schools. For betting purposes, I see that as a good thing. The Hurricanes have the third shortest odds to win the ACC, sitting at +400 on DraftKings, which is behind Florida State (+290) and Clemson (+350). They are also +220 to make the College Football Playoff and -300 to miss it.

I think both bets - Miami winning the ACC and making the CFP - are worth making, but my favorite of the two is for the Canes to win the conference title at +400. Here's why...

Hurricanes Reloaded with Talent

The Hurricanes were better than their 7-6 regular season record showed last year. A bonehead coaching decision by head coach Mario Cristobal cost Miami the win in Week 5 against Georgia Tech. Instead of instructing his QB to take a knee and run the clock out, he opted to run the ball on 4th down. The play wasn't successful and the Hurricanes turned it over on downs, allowing Georgia Tech to score a touchdown with two seconds left. (The same situation happened with Cristobal and Oregon back in 2018.)

If he can learn from those massive mistakes and manage in-game scenarios better this season, Miami will hopefully avoid unnecessary losses.

On top of that, the talent that the Canes brought in this offseason is significant. Miami ranked second in the ACC in total offense last season with Tyler Van Dyke under center, but Washington State transfer, Cam Ward, is an upgrade that should lead to fewer turnovers. Ward was the best QB in the transfer portal, throwing for 3,735 yards and 25 touchdowns with only seven interceptions a year ago.

In the backfield, Miami landed another top player with running back Damien Martinez coming over from Oregon State. He averaged over 6.0 yards per carry in his two seasons with the Beavers and will operate behind an offensive line that is great at both run blocking and pass protection.

On the other side of the ball, the defensive line will look quite different this season. Francisco Mauigoa and Wesley Bissainthe are among the returners at linebacker, but Cristobal also brought in defensive linemen Tyler Baron from Tennessee and Simeon Barrow from Michigan State, both of whom should be immediate factors.

With new names in the secondary too, I expect all facets of this defense to rank among the top in the ACC as the season goes along.

2024 Schedule Favors the Canes

Miami's schedule offers a relatively easy path to the conference title game without Clemson, NC State, or North Carolina on the calendar. The Hurricanes will have a tough test right off the bat, playing at Florida in Week 1, but their most important game is October 26 against Florida State. This matchup could decide who goes to the ACC Championship game and the fact that it will be played in Miami is a major advantage for the Canes.

I don't love that they play at Louisville the week before and meetings at South Florida and Syracuse could be tough. That said, there aren't any games on that I see as surefire losses, so as long as Cristobal and Company don't beat themselves, they could certainly win enough games to put themselves in contention for the conference title.