Texas Longhorns Rank Very High In This Shocking Metric

Keeping It Close

A new study by Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports dove into which teams most frequently play in blowouts, and which teams play in the most one-score affairs in college football since the start of the 2014 season. This is very interesting and a good thing to keep in mind when handicapping these programs in terms of their history. Some teams on their list won't shock you at all, while others might shock you a bit.

One of the teams that I was pretty shocked about was the Texas Longhorns. The study found that 54.32% of their games ended with a one-score margin. That's third-most in CFB since 2014, only behind Virginia (54.93%) and North Carolina (54.67%)!

Texas is known as a bit of a powerhouse in college football, so you would think there would be a lot of blowouts, but that is not the case. For instance, Georgia, Ohio State, and Michigan were all inside the top six in most games resulting in a blowout one way or the other.

A Pattern Emerges

When taking a look at this list, a pattern starts to emerge pretty quickly. Taking a look at teams that are involved in the most blowouts, four of the top 10 teams are from the Big-10 conference. Rutgers, Ohio State, Maryland, and Michigan are all there. Oregon is 10th on that list, and they are joining the conference this year. Penn State is ranked No. 14. All of this suggests that games in the Big-10 are usually pretty uncompetitive. Betting favorites might be the move here.

In contrast, you may want to bet the underdog in Big-12 and ACC games. In addition to Texas (who is now in the SEC, mind you), Virginia, North Carolina, Kansas State, and Miami are all inside the top-10 in games that are decided by one score.

Futures Odds

The Longhorns' first game of the season is already up at most sportsbooks for you to bet on, and it is against Colorado State. It also shouldn't be a shock that they are massive 36.5-point favorites. However, based on this new study, maybe it would be smart to bet the Rams at that kind of huge number.

You can also bet on some of their key games this season. Texas is a 3.5-point favorite against Michigan, an 8.5-point favorite against Oklahoma, a two-point underdog to Georgia, a 16.5-point favorite against Arkansas, and a 4.5-point favorite against Texas A&M.

They are 7.5/1 to win the championship in 2024, and 3.2/1 to win the SEC.