Why You Should Avoid Betting Bronny James Specials

Just because you can do something doesn't mean you should. That message can be applied to many different aspects of life, but it's especially true in sports betting.

Right now DraftKings is offering several "special" props surrounding Bronny James and his performance this upcoming season. This is a perfect example of something that you can do, but absolutely should not. Let me explain...

Bronny's Summer League Stats

Bronny James has played in four NBA Summer League games for the Los Angeles Lakers, participating in both the California Classic and the Las Vegas Summer League.

In the California Classic, James played two games, averaging 3.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game. He was 3-for-12 combined from the field, 0-of-4 from deep, and 1-of-4 from the line in 25.5 minutes of play.

With such mediocre performances in those games, the only direction for Bronny to go was up. However, that upward trajectory has yet to materialize in his two Las Vegas Summer League games. The 55th overall pick has been underwhelming, to say the least, and hasn't been able to establish any sort of rhythm.

He's averaging 5.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 0.5 assists, and 1.0 steals in 26 minutes. His shooting percentages dropped to 21.1% from the field, going 3-for-14 against the Rockets and 1-for-5 against the Celtics. He's attempted 11 threes in those two games and still has yet to knock one down, shooting 0% from deep in his early NBA career.

Stay Away From Bronny "Specials"

DraftKings has a market solely dedicated to betting on Bronny James specials and if I were you, I'd run as far as I could in the opposite direction. Among the choices are:

• Bronny James 20+ Points in any 2024-25 Regular Season Game (+550)
• Bronny James 5+ Threes Made in any 2024-25 Regular Season Game (+1200)
• Bronny James 8+ Assists in any 2024-25 Regular Season Game (+1600)
• Bronny James to Record a Double Double in any 2024-25 Regular Season Game (+3500)

At such large prices, the odds are enticing, but based on his Summer League performances, the implied probability of these bets is still too generous based on what we've seen from Bronny.

Hitting 5+ threes in a game at 12-1 has an implied probability of 7.69%. Bronny is 0-of-15 from beyond the arc in Summer League. If he can't hit one against other rookies and G-League talent, there is no way he's knocking down five threes in a regular season NBA game.

Bronny reaching 20+ points in any game has an implied probability of 15.38%. In order for any player to score 20+ points, they'd need to see significant playing time while also being efficient from the field, which Bronny lacks. There will likely be a handful of games where he receives a good amount of garbage time minutes, but even then, getting to this mark in a game that is likely already out of reach is unrealistic.

The books know that the public wants to bet on Bronny, which is why they post these bets. They'll gladly take your money. After all, Bronny was BetMGM's biggest liability to go No. 1 overall in the NBA Draft. My best advice is to stay far away from these props.

The only way you'll catch me betting on Bronny is after DraftKings posts unders on all his props. That is a market where, if you can, you should bet the under!