Longshot NBA Award Picks For The 2024-2025 Season

The 2024-2025 NBA season is right around the corner and I’m so jazzed up that I started looking at player award markets. While it’s not advisable to bet full units on any of these picks below, a sprinkle is worth consideration for reasons you’ll find out. Without further ado, let’s get into six longshots that have a ton of upside.

Ja Morant To Win NBA MVP (+5000, BetMGM)

Would you be shocked if the Memphis Grizzlies were the No. 1 seed in the West after getting Ja Morant back and adding Zach Edey to a core that consists of Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., among others? I wouldn’t. As we saw with MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander last season, voters care about seeding in MVP voting and after going 27-55 last year largely without Morant, this could be a magical story for the young star.

Morant played only nine games last season (due to suspension and injury) and looked as solid as ever, averaging 25.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 8.1 assists. In the previous season, he put up 26.2 points, 5.9 rebounds and 8.1 assists over 61 games, the best campaign of his young career. Now entering season No. 6 with a major chip on his shoulder, if Morant averages something like 28.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 9.0 assists while leading the Grizzlies to a high seed in the West, he will be in consideration. He needs to stay healthy and stay out of trouble, of course, but the talent is otherworldly and undeniable and his supporting cast is better than ever.

Guys like Nikola Jokic, SGA, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are currently atop the odds board, but as we saw with Joel Embiid a couple seasons back, a player can take over the conversation and win this award with consistently stellar play with team success.

Alex Caruso To Win Defensive Player Of The Year (+5000, FanDuel)

When the Oklahoma City Thunder traded Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso, they did so for one main reason: his proven defensive prowess. Regarded as one of the best on-ball defenders with defensive versatility, Caruso is no stranger to accolades for his play on that end of the floor, having been named to the All-Defensive First Team in 2022-2023, All-Defensive Second Team in 2023-2024 and winning the NBA Hustle Award last season as well.

Unlike the Bulls, who needed him to produce offensively as well, OKC will rely on him to expend most of his energy on the defensive end of the floor. The Thunder ranked 4th in Defensive Rating last regular season and 2nd in the playoffs, so they already have an elite scheme on that end of the floor. But unlike Giddey, who was benched for his defensive ineptitude, Caruso will likely be able to stay on the floor and vault this team to the top defensive unit in the league. If the Thunder become the best on that end of the floor and improve on or get around their 57-25 mark from last year’s regular season, Caruso will certainly be in the mix.

Sure, Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert are the obvious guys at the top of the odds board, but a lot can happen over the course of a season. These +5000 odds have a 1.96% implied probability, which is silly for an elite defender of Caruso’s caliber.

Terrence Shannon Jr. To Win Rookie Of The Year (+5000, BetMGM)

Terrence Shannon Jr. had a tumultuous senior season at Illinois last year in which he won a rape case that was brought against him with a not-guilty verdict. That overshadowed his on-court production despite his claims of innocence and he won a case to reinstate his active status on the Illinois basketball team after the university suspended him for six games midway through the year. All in all, the situation is now behind him and the Timberwolves were comfortable enough to call his name with the 27th pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

On the floor, Shannon was sensational in his fifth collegiate season, averaging 23.0 points on a career-high 47.5% shooting with 4.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists in 33.9 minutes per contest. He enters a very good Timberwolves team as one of the most NBA-ready players from this draft class and should immediately begin to contribute on the second unit, alongside fellow rookie Rob Dillingham and reigning 6th Man of the Year Naz Reid.

Zach Edey is currently the Rookie of the Year odds leader and there are essentially question marks alongside everyone taken up top in the draft, leaving the door wide open for someone like Shannon to make an instant impact. Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will be the main offensive focal points, but if Shannon averages something like 13-to-15 points off the bench, this could be a rare winner from the end of the first round. Shannon’s quickness and athleticism should instantly translate to the NBA style of play and while he may not project to be a star, he should be a solid contributor for many years.

Russell Westbrook To Win 6th Man Of The Year (+3200, FanDuel)

Last season, Russell Westbrook played in 68 regular season games for the Clippers with 11 starts and averaged 11.1 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists in just 22.5 minutes per game. With 510 double-doubles and 199 triple-doubles to his name, he now will join the Nuggets and will likely continue to come off the bench, where he should serve in an important role. For years, coach Michael Malone has trusted Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and very few others to pick up the offensive slack when Nikola Jokic rests.

Enter Westbrook, who is still the great facilitator he has always been and is still in incredible shape. Even if he plays 22-to-25 minutes off the pine, he should still put up well-rounded numbers and since he will now have a better supporting cast off Denver’s bench, I expect his shooting percentages to improve as well.

It’s worth noting that even though Westbrook’s counting stats all declined with his minutes in Los Angeles over the last few seasons (with the Lakers and then Clippers), he enjoyed his two best shooting seasons at lesser volume, posting 48.9% and 45.4% field goal percentages over the last couple years. Taking over in Reggie Jackson’s role (plus a bit more), I see Westbrook being a huge part of Denver’s success in the upcoming season and I also expect him to be on the floor with Jokic, Murray and Porter quite a bit as well.

James Harden To Win Clutch Player Of The Year (+10000, BetMGM)

Speaking of Westbrook, his departure and Paul George’s departure will leave the Clippers in a scary place. James Harden and oft-injured Kawhi Leonard will now be tasked to lead a squad consisting of the following core: Terance Mann, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Derrick Jones Jr., Nicolas Batum, Mo Bamba, Amir Coffey, Kris Dunn, Bones Hyland, Kai Jones, Kevin Porter Jr. and others. With the new $2 billion Intuit Dome ready to house the team, though, there’s a lot of intrigue coming their way. 

After averaging 16.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 8.5 assists last season, not impressive for his standards, I think this is going to be a resurgent year for the 34-year-old veteran. Not only will he only need to compete with Leonard for clutch shot opportunities late in games, but he will likely see the majority of them based on Leonard’s past. Given the huge market that L.A. is, Harden’s game-winners will get extra attention and his unique ability to get to the basket could also come in very handy late in games.

I expect huge usage numbers from him all year long and while he won’t be the same guy that singlehandedly took over games when he was with the Rockets years ago, it’s worth noting that De’Aaron Fox and Steph Curry won the first two of these awards. While Curry wasn’t a shock last season, DeMar DeRozan finished right behind him based on the fact that he was trusted and converted shots down the stretch of games. Based on his past production, there’s no reason why Harden can’t do the same thing. Especially if he leads the Clippers to the playoffs, I love his odds to win this award.

Dereck Lively II To Win Most Improved Player (+6000, BetRivers)

As he showed in Dallas’ playoff run, Dereck Lively is going to be an absolute force in this league. In the regular season, he dealt with some nagging injuries and started 42 of 55 games, averaging 8.8 points (74.7% FG), 6.9 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per contest. Then in the postseason, he put up 7.9 points (67.4%), 7.4 rebounds and 1.0 block in 22.0 minutes, playing all 21 games off the bench.

The now-20-year-old center recorded two double-doubles against the Celtics in the NBA Finals and was a proven finisher above the rim, converting alley-oop opportunities from both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving with ease.

I expect Lively to start this year and emerge as a nightly double-double threat. Not only that, but he’s been working on his touch from the outside and the development of a three-point shot. If he can introduce that aspect of the game, the sky’s the limit. A jump to something like 16.0 points, 10.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game would likely put him in contention for the award if the Mavericks are successful again this season, which they should be. While most past winners of this award tend to be All-Stars, I think he’s going to emerge as one of the best young centers in the game, which should allow him to get some looks here.