Bet The Under On These 3 Warriors-Mavs Game 4 Player Props

Spencer Dinwiddie Under 11.5 Points (-105, BetMGM)

I have been waiting to bet this prop for three full days. In the first five games of the Phoenix series, Spencer Dinwiddie scored a total of 35 points; in the final two games of the Phoenix series, Dinwiddie scored 45 points.

The marketplace has completely lost track of Dinwiddie’s place as a secondary scoring option in this Dallas offense. Not only is he unlikely to connect on five three-pointers in this game, but he’s perhaps even more unlikely to attempt seven. That’s just not what his role is.

This is, on principle, a sell-high spot. And it’s my favorite bet of the day.

Klay Thompson Under 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)

Perhaps a less obvious sell-high spot is here, fading Game 6 Klay after a monster 30-point performance in which he hit eight three-pointers. Klay just hasn’t looked right for large stretches of these playoffs. He hasn’t moved right and shot 42 percent in the Griz series, leading the Warriors offense to rely more on other scoring options.

Case in point: Klay would have hit this PRA number only one time in the five Memphis games prior to his Game 6 explosion. He’s also been underutilized by Steve Kerr in both Game 1s during these playoffs.

Draymond Green Under 7.5 Points (+100)

This seems like a dramatic number for an under, but it really isn’t if you’ve watched Warriors games. It’s not just that Draymond isn’t shooting well or scoring on offense – he’s not even trying to keep defenses honest. He’s actively looking to pass the ball to other players.

Draymond scored eight or more points just once in the entire Memphis series, averaging six points per contest. I don’t expect a dramatically different approach in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.