NBA Betting Playbook for Sunday, April 17
The top trends you need to know before betting on today's NBA playoff games
Nick Ashooh - Apr 16, 2022, 10:49pm EDTOdds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest NBA betting lines here: Latest NBA Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert NBA picks
Sunday's NBA trends are collected and ready to go. Let's take a look at what you should know for today's NBA slate.
One trend to note is that the BetQL NBA model closed the regular season strong, going 158-92 (63%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐ and higher in the final seven days. That includes a ridiculous 16-4 (80%) on ATS picks rated ⭐⭐ and higher over the final three days of the season for a total return of $1,055 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including player props, with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
Hawks at Heat (-6.5), O/U 218.5
After a dominant, blowout win over the Hornets and a strong comeback victory over the Cavaliers, the Hawks punched their ticket into the playoffs, where they'll be the 8th seed against the 1st-seeded Heat. Miami won the regular season series 3-1 and the one loss came by just two points, so it's pretty clear that they'll be heavy favorites all series long.
Something to consider if you're thinking about backing the Heat to cover is that the Hawks have gone 0-39 ATS in their 39 outright losses this season. When they've lost straight-up, they haven't covered a single time!
However, Nate McMillan's teams tend to do well in rematches after losing to that team in their previous matchup. In fact, under their head coach, Atlanta has gone 18-6 SU (+14.3 units, 57.2% ROI) revenging a straight-up loss as a favorite, which they were the last time these teams squared off.
If you're on Miami, you'll be happy to know that they've gone 15-3 ATS (+11.3 units, 58.5% ROI) against teams that made 36% or more of their three-point attempts this season.
Nets at Celtics (-4), O/U 225
This might go down as the best 2 vs. 7 matchup in NBA playoff history. It's been a roller coaster of a season for the Nets, but they at least made it out of the play-in. From injuries, to part-time players, to trade demands, the preseason favorite to win the NBA title has had a long windy road to get here.
Boston finished the year covering in four straight, while the Nets went just 3-7 ATS over their last ten, including against Cleveland.
Forget trying to factor Ben Simmons into this series, let alone Game 1, with Brooklyn still very vague on when or if he plays this postseason at all. It's all about Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving taking over for the most iso-heavy team in the league.
BetQL also points out that the Celtics are 25-14 against the first-half spread when playing against a team with a winning record this season, while the Nets are 7-0 ATS against division opponents while on the road this season.
Boston was one of the best teams down the stretch, dominating on defense while still putting up big numbers on the other end, so lean towards at bare-minimum at Boston cover here.
Bulls at Bucks (-10), O/U 228.5
The Bulls spent a good portion of the season as one of the surprise teams in the east, but eventually injuries took a toll, flopping to a 14-16 (13-17 ATS) stretch to end the season.
The Bucks come in as the defending champs, but also a team ranked just 19th in points allowed per game (112.1). The good news for Milwaukee though at least comes on the other end of the court, where the Bucks were the third-best scoring team in the NBA during the regular season (115.5).
According to one of BetQL's trends for this game though, the Bucks are 24-14 ATS against poor pressure defensive teams, who force 13 or fewer turnovers per game.
The Bulls finish to the season doesn't give a ton of hope for them in this series, and Game 1 could be a big win for the Bucks.
Pelicans at Suns (-10.5), O/U 224.5
Sure, the Pelicans had an easier path to beat the Clippers after Paul George was ruled out due to COVID, but a win is a win and they survived the play-in tournament. Now, they're double-digit favorites in a lopsided series against a Suns team that finished with the best record in the NBA in the regular season.
That doesn't mean you can overlook the dynamic duo of Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum though. While Devin Booker and Chris Paul will likely outshine them in this series, this team became a lot more dangerous after acquiring McCollum before the trade deadline.
Although all indications point to Zion Williamson returning to action next year, could we see him return at some point in this series if New Orleans has a chance to pull off a miraculous upset? We will find out.
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Click below to sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!
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