NBA Playoffs 2021: Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs Preview and Prediction

The San Antonio Spurs are in Memphis on Wednesday night with the winner moving on to an elimination game for a postseason berth against the loser of the Lakers-Warriors game. For the loser, their season is over.

Who has the edge in the 9-10 matchup of the Western Conference Play-In game?

When: Wednesday, May 19

Where: FedEx Forum, Memphis, Tennessee 

Watch: ESPN

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on Tuesday morning

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Memphis Grizzlies (-4, 222) vs. San Antonio Spurs - 7:30 PM EST

These two have played three times this season, but have not seen one another since February 1. We won’t be able to derive too much from those early season matchups, but Memphis took two of the three. 

The Spurs come into this matchup reeling. A rigorous final stretch that saw them face one lottery team since the calendar flipped to May, the Spurs have dropped 10 of 12. 

The first key to this game will be how the Spurs match up with the Grizzlies size. 

San Antonio doesn’t have a ton of size in the frontcourt, typically opting to trot out rangy wings to limit opponents three-point shooting. This could be a good spot for Grizzlies big man Jonas Valančiūnas to have a big game. The Lithuanian big man anchors a Memphis club that is fourth in offensive rebounding rate since the All-Star break and will be going against a Spurs team that is in the bottom third of the league in defensive rebounding percentage. 

On the other side, Valančiūnas is going to be highlighted in pick-and-roll action from DeMar DeRozan and co. The Spurs run pick-and-roll action at a top five clip in the league, per NBA.com’s player tracking data. 

Valančiūnas is a traditional big man that is going to play drop coverage, exactly what the Spurs want, allowing San Antonio to walk into mid-range two’s. The team shoots three’s at the lowest rate in the league -- more on this below -- and are going to attack the open space the Memphis big leaves. 

Referring back to the three-point rates, the Spurs have taken the fewest shots from beyond the arc this season, but the Grizz have the fourth lowest mark. Both teams are going to look to do their damage inside, but doesn’t mean they won’t find success. The Spurs like to attack towards the rim, and the Grizzlies crash the glass very well. Despite the lack of shots from the perimeter, all three of these games were shootouts -- totals of 250, 241, and 235.

I don’t see significant value in this game, but I do lean with the over 222 as both offenses will be able to get their serving of points.

Lean: Over 222, DeMar DeRozan over 25.5 points