NBA Futures: There's Value on Utah's Live Win Total

Heading into the 2022-23 NBA season, the Utah Jazz had a projected season win total of just 24.5. That was the fifth-lowest total, ahead of only the Pacers, Thunder, Rockets and Spurs. It was also a huge fall from the 49 wins they amassed last season.

Trading away Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert in the offseason, the Jazz were expected to be a team tanking for this year's top draft pick. However, 43 games into the season, Utah is just five wins away from recording its 25th win and cashing any over tickets. If you missed out on placing a preseason ticket, you still have a chance to profit off the Jazz's live win total of 38.5. At DraftKings, taking the over on that number is juiced to -125, while there is more value on the under at +100, which is a bet I would recommend taking.

The Jazz shocked the NBA world early in the season, winning 10 of their first 13 games. They did that with a new, first-year head coach in Will Hardy and a number of new pieces to their roster. Since then, their record has been up and down, going through a tough losing streak, followed by a number of wins and so forth. However, over the last 10 games, Utah has only won three. They are being held up by Lauri Markkanen, who has led the team in scoring in nine of those games. While many of those losses haven't come by a significant margin, this is exactly the type of play we expected out of Utah from the start.

Now that the Jazz have dropped to under .500 on the season and currently sit outside of a play-in spot, the real tanking is about to begin. Utah was able to use the first half of the year to figure out which pieces were worth keeping to build around and which pieces they would be fine parting with. Now that they have a better understanding of that, there is no reason to continue winning, especially with a pretty solid draft class coming in. We could also see Utah trade away players like Mike Conley or Jordan Clarkson as the deadline, which would accelerate their downfall.

The Jazz have also been significantly worse on the road this year, going 8-16 away from Vivint Arena, compared to 12-7 at home. That's going to make winning over the back half of the season even more difficult because not only does competition get stiffer as teams are fighting for playoff spots, but 15 of Utah's final 26 games are on the road.

In order for the Jazz the hit the over on their live win total of 38.5, they'll need to win 19 more games. With just 39 games remaining on the schedule and nearly half of those away from home, I'm not confident that they can surpass that mark. Whether or not that's good news for the organization, it is good news for bettors because taking the under on that number gives you a +100 payout.

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