Where will Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, and others land in free agency?

NBA free agency kicks off on Sunday night, and there is a ton of intrigue as to where the top free agents will land. Clear favorites are emerging for players like Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson, while it’s anyone’s guess as to where other players such as Kevin Durant and Jimmy Butler will land. This isn’t an article where I’ll be breaking down which teams provide value to sign a certain player, but there are a few long-shot bets that have better chances of happening than the oddsmakers are giving them credit for.

Kawhi Leonard

Raptors: -250
Clippers: +150

Kawhi Leonard is the king of Canada after bringing an NBA Championship to Toronto. It’s going to come down to the Raptors (-250) and Clippers (+150) for his signature in free agency. While Leonard will likely take a meeting with Los Angeles, which is also his hometown, it’s hard for me to see him leaving Toronto. He is the most beloved athlete in Toronto since the days of Joe Carter. Raptors’ GM Masai Ujiri announcing that he is staying with the team with also likely have a positive impact on their chances of re-signing Leonard. Marc Gasol recently announced that he will be returning to Toronto as well. A core of Gasol, Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam, and Kyle Lowry has to be the most attractive starting lineup that Leonard could join.

Kyrie Irving

Nets: -400
Lakers: +300
Knicks: +1000

Is anyone surprised that Kyrie Irving’s time in Boston ended in a nasty breakup? After declaring that he was ‘definitely’ staying in Boston, it now looks like he is a near lock to head to the Nets. The Lakers have a shot at signing Irving, but they will still need to move some pieces around to pay him the maximum salary. The Nets have made signing Irving their top priority this offseason, and the prospect of teaming up with Kevin Durant will likely be too much to pass up on. The Knicks could make a late push, but it looks like it will be too little, too late for New York.

Kevin Durant

Nets: -125
Warriors: +200
Knicks: +500

Kevin Durant is the biggest fish in this year’s free agency pool, even after tearing his Achilles tendon in the NBA Finals. It looks like a two-team race between the Nets and the Warriors. While Durant opted out of his player option with the Warriors, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he isn’t going to re-sign with them. By declining his option, Durant will be able to maximize his earnings potential over the next 5 years, and the Warriors will be able to offer him a super-max deal. However, there might be some resentment between Durant and the front office after how his calf injury was handled, which played a role in his Achilles injury. The Nets are the most likely option, and Kyrie Irving would be a perfect player to pair with Durant. The Knicks are still in play at +500, but it’s hard to see any top-tier player signing for the Knicks given their organizational dysfunction.

Klay Thompson

Warriors: -250
Nets: +300
Mavericks: +600
Lakers: +600

There’s a chance that Klay Thompson leaves the Warriors, but I just can’t see it happening. Thompson is a Bay Area guy through and through, and they should have no problem paying him a max deal. The Nets might make a strong push for Thompson if they strike out with both Irving and Durant, but barring anything crazy happening, he will be back with the warriors.

Jimmy Butler

76ers: -150
Rockets: +200
Knicks: +600
Nets: +800
Clippers: +800
Lakers: +800

Jimmy Butler might have the most wide-open free agency among all players on this list. The 76ers are reportedly confident that they will be able to re-sign Butler, but the Rockets also have a great shot if they can move Clint Capela and Eric Gordon to free up cap space. A team that features James Harden, Chris Paul, and Jimmy Butler would be one of the most talented, but also one of the most volatile teams in the entire league. I don’t think that it will happen, but it would certainly be fun to watch. The Knicks, Clippers, and the Lakers will also likely make a push for Butler, and realistically he could sign with any of those teams. With that being said, I think at the end of the day he realizes the potential that the 76ers have with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons still yet to hit their peaks and will stay in Philadelphia on a max contract.

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