How Sharps are Betting Game 6 of the NBA Finals

Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors

Spread: Golden State -2.5
Money Line: Golden State -140, Toronto +120
Total: 212
Time: 9:00 PM ET
TV: ABC

Toronto Leads 3-2

Money Line

Public: 59% Total Tickets on Toronto
Sharp: 52% Total Money on Warriors

The money line is fairly even between sharp and public money, with the Warriors seeing a slight edge in terms of total money with 52% on GSW -140. This really shouldn’t be surprising after we saw sharp money back the Warriors at over 60% in Game 5 and 85% in Game 4. The Warriors will be without Kevin Durant after his brutal achilles injury that he suffered in Game 6, but we also saw huge percentages of total money on Golden State in Games 1 and 2 when Durant was also out.

The Warriors have been a good team to back at Oracle Arena this season on the money line , having won 38 of 53 home games. They have continued that success into the playoffs, winning 6 of 10 at home, but it should be noted that the have already lost both of home games that they’ve had thus far in this series.

Spread

Public: 60% Total tickets on Raptors
Sharp: 61% Total money on Raptors

While sharp money is slightly favoring the Warriors on the money line, the against the spread numbers favor the visiting Raptors. Toronto heads into Game 6 as +3 road underdogs despite having already won both games thus far in Oracle Arena in this series. The Raptors looked well on their way to clinching the NBA Title in Game 5, but some poor late-game shooting and an inexplicable timeout from HC Nick Nurse helped hand the Warriors an improbable win on the road.

We are seeing both public (60% of total tickets) and sharp (61% of total money) bettors backing TOR +3. The Raptors have covered each of their last 3 road games in the playoffs and they were a solid team all year long as road underdogs, going 13-8 ATS.

The Warriors have been one of the worst teams in the league against the spread at home this season -- a major contributing factor to why they finished the season with a negative ROI against the spread on the year. Golden State covered only 37.7% of their home games this season, so it seems like sharp money is on to something by backing Toronto at the 60% clip that we are seeing.

Total

Public: 64% Total Tickets on Over
Sharp: 88% Total Money on Over

Sharp money has been on the over in every game in this series at over a 55% clip in each game, so it comes as no shock that both public and sharp money is looking to jump on the over yet again for Game 6.  The 212 total is the lowest that we have seen in this series since Game 3, where the closing line was 210.5. This comes after we saw totals of 217 in Game 5 and 215 in Game 4 -- both games went under.

The Warriors were a team that heavily trended towards unders when playing at home this season, covering the total in only 43.3% of their home games in 2018, including the regular season. The Raptors were right around 50% on the season in road game over/unders, but have been heavily favoring unders in the playoffs, with 7 of their 10 games in the 2019 playoffs going under the closing total.

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