NBA Finals Game 6 Preview

Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors

Spread: Golden State -2.5
Money Line: Golden State -140, Toronto +120
Total: 211.5
First Half Spread: Warriors -1.5
First Half Total: 103
Time: 9:00 PM ET
TV: ABC

Game 6 is back in Oakland as a result of the Warriors win in Toronto by a score of 106-105. Warriors forward Kevin Durant made a short-lived Finals appearance, scoring 11 points in 12 minutes before leaving with a devastating torn achilles tendon injury. Warriors guard Stephen Curry picked up the slack to lead all scorers with 31 points. Toronto was led by forward Kawhi Leonard, who had 26 points. Tip-off time at Oracle Arena is set for 9:00 pm Eastern.

Toronto Raptors Keys for Game 6

Raptors forward Pascal Siakam continued his teeter-totter Finals play Monday night, finishing with 12 points and was the only starter with a negative +/- number on the game (-5). Reserve Fred VanVleet recorded a +/- of -12 and was lit up by Curry on Monday night. For the series, Siakam has a +/- of +4 with VanVleet +/- of +3, so we should expect bounce back performances from them in Game 6.

Toronto shot 28% from beyond the arc in Game 2 and 28% from downtown in Game 5. Both of those games were at home and unsurprisingly the two poor shooting performances resulted in losses. Contrast those pitiful numbers with their 39% 3PT shooting in Game 1, 44% in Game 3 and 31% in Game 4 and we can clearly see what the Raptors need to do to close out the Warriors tonight. Make a higher percentage of triples and they lift the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

Kawhi Leonard averaged two turnovers per game in their three victories but five turnovers per game in their two losses. Much of that is due to his teammates not being able to knock down shots, and he tends to force the ball in situations where he usually doesn't when his teammates aren't shooting well. Fewer turnovers and a better contribution from his teammates and the Raptors walk out of Oracle with a win.

Toronto should have won Game 5 and they’d better forget about those last three minutes from that game and focus on the task at hand, otherwise they are in serious trouble tonight. Head Coach Nick Nurse must also forget about the egregious timeout that he called late in Game 5 that seemingly halted all of Toronto’s momentum.

Toronto is 6-4 straight up during the playoffs as the away team.

Golden State Keys for Game 6

The Warriors are playing with house money and must win tonight, or they will watch the Raptors celebrate the NBA Championship at Oracle Arena.

Kevin Durant is listed as out after his torn achilles and forward F Kevon Looney did further damage to his collarbone, but is listed as probable. Someone must step up and match the early 11 points Durant gave Golden State Monday night otherwise this series is over.

Golden State shot 47% from long range in Game 5. That's an incredibly efficient  number and without Durant, the backcourt combo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson will need to resemble their Game 5 performance where they combined for 12-27 shooting from 3PT range. As a team, Golden State knocked down 20-triples in Game 5. Can they repeat this? Probably not, but they had better get close to that number.

DeMarcus Cousins has a +/- of -1.8 for this series and was -4 in Game 5, but still finished with 14 points on Thursday night. In the Warriors' wins, Cousins averages 12.5 points with 8 rebounds. In losses, he averages just 4.3 points and 2.3 rebounds. Cousins is the key here. An aggressive Cousins on the offensive end and on the defensive glass are necessary for the Warriors to win and send this series back to Toronto.

Andre Iguodala averaged 9.2 points during the regular season, but has averaged just 6.6 points-per-game in this series. He’s taken more triples than in the regular season, but is making them at a lower rate. He also has a difficult task guarding Kawhi Leonard, but Golden State will need Iguodala to knock down a higher percentage of his 3PT attempts in Game 6.

Golden State is 6-4 during these playoffs at Oracle Arena.

Prediction: Golden State -1.5 First Half

I’m not interested in anything other than the first half spread and I’m going to go with the Warriors at -1.5. This will be the last time Green, Curry, and Thompson play in the building that made them famous. After two disappointing losses at Oracle this series, they are going to want to run Toronto off the floor. Golden State is 1-1 ATS in the first half of their home games this series and I look for Golden State to cover the 1.5 points with ease.