NBA Betting Guide: NBA Odds, Best Bets For Thursday, March 30
NBA odds, best bets & trends for today's games
Kate Constable - Mar 30, 2023, 11:25am EDT
NBA Betting Odds, Best Bets
Thursday's NBA slate is just two games but features two big-time matchups. The Celtics and Bucks are up first in what could be a preview of the Eastern Conference Finals. Then it's the Pelicans and Nuggets in Denver. Don't forget, BetQL is here to help you make smart, informed bets with live NBA betting odds, best bets from our model, sharp picks, public bets, line movement data, exclusive NBA articles and much more to help you cash tonight.
Speaking of cashing, the BetQL model has hit 60% of all its NBA bets in the last 14 days for a total return of $1,368 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see all of today's best bets, including NBA player props, plus game projections, betting trends and more!
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NBA Best Bet From BetQL
Celtics vs. Bucks u237.5 ⭐⭐⭐
The Bucks are on a back-to-back after winning at Indiana last night. Milwaukee put up 149 points and the game ended with a total of 285, all in regulation! Tonight’s matchup with the Celtics is going to look much different, and I like the under 237.5. I’m not terribly concerned that Milwaukee is on a back-to-back because Khris Middleton sat out last night for load management but the Bucks' top defender should be back tonight.
Plus, the under has hit in eight of the Bucks' 11 games when playing on no rest this season. Both teams rank in the top 10 in defensive rating over their last 10 games and I expect that to be a major focus tonight with the magnitude of this game. This matchup has seeding implications because these two teams have split the season series so far and this is the final time they’ll meet. The Bucks are three games up on the Celtics, so a win tonight would not only separate them by another game, but it would give Milwaukee the tiebreaker over Boston. Because of that, this game is going to have a playoff feel and could be a preview of the Eastern Conference Finals.
Top NBA Player Prop
Jaylen Brown o2.5 Made 3s (-105, DraftKings)
Jaylen Brown is coming off a terrible 3-point shooting performance on Tuesday against the Wizards. Brown went 0-for-4 from deep, finishing with 18 points. The game before that, he went 2-for-10 from beyond the arc against the Spurs. However, prior to those games, Brown went over tonight’s 3-point prop in five of the last six games. Despite a few bad performances, March still marks his second-highest percentage from deep in any month this season. Plus, over the last 10 games, the Bucks rank 23rd in opponent 3-point percentage, allowing teams to shoot 38.2%. Brown has been in a bit of a slump, but he’s going to shoot his way out of that tonight. This is also a BetQL four-star play, so at -105 at DraftKings, there is plenty of value here.
Best Sportsbook Offers & NBA Promos
Here's a play for one of our favorite daily NBA promos at BetMGM (we'll update if anyone drops a good NBA boost, though):
BetMGM NBA One-Game Parlay Insurance Play of the Day
Opt in to the promo and place a four-leg (minimum) NBA one-game parlay with at least +400 odds; if your OGP loses by one leg, you'll get your stake back in a free bet up to $25 -- and you can take advantage of this promo once every day there's an NBA game!
We've already hit several of these using the strategy of "middling" the alt total and alt spreads for each team to increase our chances of getting the insurance if the OGP doesn't hit. Also, DO NOT play these OGPs without the promo, as the insurance is the only reason these bets are valuable over time. Here is my play for today. You can adjust each leg to your liking and apply this strategy to any NBA game, any night:
Pelicans-Nuggets o217.5
Pelicans-Nuggets u237.5
Pelicans +11.5
Nuggets ML
OGP odds: +425
Join BetMGM to start taking advantage of their daily OGP insurance promos across NBA, MLB, NHL and EPL/UCL. New BetMGM customers also get a risk-free first bet up to $1,000 using the offer below!
NBA Betting Trends For The Win
Not only does the BetQL model find the most valuable NBA bets every day, but it also finds some fantastic betting trends to help you make more informed bets. Whether that be a situational trend, an historical trend or a coaching trend, we have something for every game that shows why a team might be valuable that night.
Celtics-Bucks: The Milwaukee Bucks are 9-1 ATS when playing on back-to-back days this season. They're also 17-2 SU at home when playing against a team with a winning record.
Pelicans-Nuggets: The Denver Nuggets are 16-5 ATS and 20-1 SU in home games where the total is greater than or equal to 230 this season. However, New Orleans is 13-2 ATS versus teams that allow opponents to shoot 48% or better this season.
BetQL Trending Bets
A new section of our site highlights bets that check the most boxes when it comes to four categories: BetQL Model projections, BetQL Community picks, Sharp Betting data, "Fade the Public" data. Check out which bets are checking the most boxes today!
MORE: SEE ALL NBA TRENDING BETS NOW
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