Don't Bet Chris Paul To Win Sixth Man Of The Year

It was very strange to look at the NBA awards market and find Chris Paul listed under Sixth Man of the Year odds. In his 18-year career, Paul has never come off the bench. However, that's the role that he was presumed to take after being dealt to the Warriors after the Suns' trade with Washington for Bradley Beal. That would certainly be uncharted territory for the veteran point guard, but you shouldn't count on it playing out like that, as I'll explain below.

Chris Paul +2000 To Win Sixth Man of The Year (DraftKings)

There are a few reasons that I would advise against betting on Paul to win this award. For starters, in order to be eligible, a player has to come off the bench in more games than he starts. As of right now, Paul is listed as the starting PG on the Warriors depth chart. That's not to say that's where he'll be in a month when the season starts, but it certainly indicates that the Warriors could have him in that spot for various stretches of the season.

This is also a Warriors team that has dealt with its fair share of injuries over the years. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have both missed large chunks of time recently and they aren't getting any younger. If one of them goes down, Paul will most certainly assume a starting role.

Then there is also the fact that Paul himself can't stay healthy. At 38 years old, he is the third-oldest player in the league behind LeBron James and P.J. Tucker. He's had a variety of muscle strains that have kept him sidelined for significant stretches in previous seasons and I don't have confidence that won't be the same case again this year. That said, it would also be fair to argue that health and age are the exact reasons he should be coming off the bench to begin with. But it also makes me believe that the Warriors are going to be super conservative with Paul's minutes during the regular season to ensure he's healthy come playoffs.

Paul's stats are also likely to take a big hit with so many other scorers around him. He only averaged 13.9 ppg in 32.0 minutes per game and I have a hard time believing he's going to be able to top that with a more limited role. That matters significantly because no winner of the award in the last 10 seasons has averaged fewer points per game than Jamal Crawford's 14.2 in 2016. If an average of 14.0 points per game is the threshold, then I can say with pretty strong conviction that Paul won't be taking home the award.

Lastly, look at the other players that are ahead of CP3 on the odds board. Immanuel Quickley is a rising star that made a huge impact on the Knicks last year. New York has refused to include him in any trade offers from other teams because they know what he has the potential to become. He had a great second half to the season last year and finally solidified his role in New York's offense, which is why I am expecting a big upcoming year from him.

Bennedict Mathurin and Jaden Hardy are both second-year players who are expected to make a big jump this season. If Mathurin comes off the bench again this season, he might just be my favorite to win after receiving two third-place votes last year. Josh Hart, Malik Monk and Derrick White are other solid options with similar odds as Paul.

All in all, there are better, younger options for a comparable price. The upside to taking one of those players feels greater than an aging Paul who's in a brand new role for the first time in his career.