Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Game 4 Preview, Best Bets

The Brooklyn Nets will look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday afternoon.

Who has the betting edge heading into the marquee matchup?

Brooklyn Nets (-2.5, 228) vs. Milwaukee Bucks - 3:00 PM EST

BetQL Model Trends and Plays:

• Steve Nash is 16 - 4 after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread while coaching Brooklyn
• Final score projection: Brooklyn Nets 116.5 - Milwaukee Bucks 116
  
  For all of BetQL’s NBA Playoff top plays click here.
  * These are the model's ratings at the time the article was published. Star ratings can change due to line changes, injuries, and other breaking information.

Game 3 was far from how we expected it to go. An 86-83 rock fight that saw the Bucks squander a 30-9 lead, only to score the games last six points and win the pivotal matchup.

I don’t think there are sweeping conclusions to make from the game considering just how poor the shot making was. While the score was a throwback to the early 2000’s, each team got their fair share of looks. 

According to Shot Quality, the projected final score was 111 to 110.8. If you look back at the game though, and where those shots came from, the Nets should feel confident heading into Game 4. 

Both teams ran through their two offensive work horses. Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined for 68 of the team’s 86 points, while Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving attacked Brook Lopez on defense, which opened shooting lanes for their de facto center Bruce Brown to hit his patent floater. 

Therein lies the issue for the Bucks as head coach Mike Budenholzer stuck with Lopez until the bitter end of the game. While he altered shots down the stretch, the Nets were also dealing with a rare off shooting night from Kevin Durant, who hit on 11 of his 28 shots. He still got to 30, but Durant will not be as kind when he gets to his mid range jumper in Game 4 with Lopez dropping in the pick-and-roll.

Game 3 showed that while the Bucks are capable of getting a win, a lot of things need to go their way, including a rare night where one of the league’s best shooters goes 1-of-11 from the field in Joe Harris.

The Nets offense feels more reliable, especially with Antetokounmpo settling for three's at this rate. He has hit three of his 16 three pointers this series, including 1-of-8 in Game 3. If Milwaukee possessions end with a Giannis three, the Nets will be more than happy. Not to mention he is shooting 31% from the free throw line.

After closing as 3.5 point underdogs, the Nets moved to 2.5 point favorites in Game 4, and I agree with the line move. Despite spotting the Bucks three touchdowns, the Nets battled back to grab a late lead despite a comically poor shooting night. 

Expect Durant and Irving to continue to go at Lopez, but the Bucks are a guy short to make a true adjustment. I'm not sure they can win this game, let alone the series with the roster as currently constructed with Donte DiVincenzo on the sideline. Milwaukee will always have a shaky defender on the floor that the Nets can hunt for.

I’d lay the points with the Nets, especially considering I don’t trust Antetokounmpo’s late game free throw shooting. 

Pick: Nets -2.5