NBA Player Prop Picks Today: Fade Joel Embiid, Back De'Aaron Fox & Tyrese Haliburton

Top NBA Player Prop Values Tonight

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76ers At Celtics Player Prop Picks Tonight

Joel Embiid Under 30.5 Points -105 at BetMGM

Yes, Embiid averages 33.4 points and is an absolute beast. However, the Celtics are one of the few teams in the league that can effectively limit him. Not only is Robert Williams III an elite post defender, but Al Horford has picked up on tendencies and has effectively held him in check. Here are Embiid’s point totals against the Celtics this season and last: 26, 19, 25, 41 and 13. (In the 41-point game, Enes Freedom started for Boston and both Williams and Horford were out.) Embiid has averaged 22.9 points in 17 career head-to-head matchups against Horford and I expect Boston to force the ball out of his hands or at least make life very difficult for him in the post and low blocks, where he has traditionally been able to feast.

Kings At Rockets Player Prop Picks Tonight

De’Aaron Fox Over 30.5 Points + Assists -110 at BetMGM

The Rockets have allowed an NBA-high 28.03 points and an NBA-high 9.52 assists per game to opposing point guards this season and while Fox has finished below this number in two of three meetings against Houston this season, he’s in the best-possible spot. In those three matchups, Fox’s teammates have let him down by failing to convert an average of 8.0 potential assists per game (out of 15.3) and the point guard has averaged a team-high 21.3 points per contest despite shooting just 38.9% on drives to the basket, way below his 57.6% mark for the entire season. I expect him to produce in both categories tonight.

Pacers At Heat Player Prop Picks Tonight

Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 Assists -135 at DraftKings

Since returning from a weeks-long injury absence, Haliburton has racked up 12, 9 and 11 assists in his first three games back and still leads the NBA with 10.3 per game. In that three-game set, he averaged 18.7 potential assists per contest and also leads the NBA in that metric at an astronomical 19.8 per game, two more than Chris Paul, who is in second place. This entire Pacers offense runs through Haliburton and any time he’s at this 8.5 number, I’ll back him regardless of the matchup.

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