Are The Kings Better Or Worse When Marvin Bagley Suits Up?

• The Sacramento Kings selected 6’11" power forward Marvin Bagley III from Duke University with the second pick of the 2018 NBA draft. While he made the 2019 All-Rookie First Team, Luka Doncic and Trae Young, two players selected after Bagley lll in the draft, had much stronger rookie seasons and careers to date.

• Bagley lll's sophomore season has been a nightmare. He missed 51 of the Kings 64 games this season due to a foot injury. He also missed 20 games in his rookie season because of injuries. Bagley lll is reportedly ready to return to the Kings for the remainder of their season in Orlando.

• The challenge with Bagley lll is that he’s a big man with an offensive game that no longer works in the modern NBA. He has attempted 68.2 percent of his career field goals within 10 feet. He has no ability to stretch the court for Sacramento.

• The Kings currently have the 11th-best record in the Western Conference. Sacramento is +1100 to clinch a playoff berth, per DraftKings.

A Sophomore Campaign Gone Wrong

While Sacramento Kings General Manager Vlade Divac deservedly received a lot of criticism for selecting Marvin Bagley III ahead of Luka Doncic and Trae Young, Bagley III still had an impressive rookie season. The former Duke Blue Devil made the 2019 All-Rookie First Team. Bagley lll posted an above-average player efficiency rating and shot over 50 percent from the field for a Kings team that finished with a 39-43 record in Bagley lll's rookie campaign.

Unfortunately for the big man, his sophomore season has been a nightmare. While Doncic and Young made all-star teams this season and are on the brink of superstardom, Bagley lll has only played in 13 of Sacramento's 64 games this season due to a foot injury. He has been injury-prone his entire career thus far, as he also missed 20 games in his rookie season. Bagley lll is averaging fewer points, rebounds, and blocks per game this season than what he averaged in his rookie campaign, despite playing more more minutes per game this season. His field goal percentage and free throw attempts have also declined from his rookie season. On top of that, he had a negative value over replacement player rating in 2019-2020.

Back In Action

Bagley lll is reportedly ready to rejoin the Kings in Orlando. However, Sacramento may be better off if he just sits out the rest of the season. The Kings were 2-11 with Bagley lll in the lineup and 26-25 without him. The Kings point differential in the 13 games that Bagley lll played was -6. The Kings point differential in the 51 games that 21-year-old did not play in sits at -.88. The Kings certainly played like a worse team with the power forward on the court.

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A Player From A Different Era

Bagley lll is a throw-back big man to an era of basketball that no longer exists. A massive 68.2 percent of his shots over his first 75 career games have come from within 10 feet of the basket. Bagley lll is not a big man who can competently stretch the floor at this stage of his career, as he has only connected successfully on 34 of his 118 career three-point field goal attempts.

Bagley lll is an entirely different player from power forward and teammate Nemanja Bjelica. Bjelica is a 6’10" power forward who has shot 42.4 percent from the three-point line on almost five three-point field goal attempts per game this season. Since the Kings offense is centered around penetration from point guard DeAaron Fox, Bjelica provides the floor spacing that Bagley lll cannot offer.

Bagley lll doesn't do much for the Kings defensively. He has averaged under a block per game in his first 75 career games. Bagley lll only averaged a block a game during his one season at Duke University. Unfortunately, his defensive box plus/minus has been negative his entire career.

Looking Ahead

The Kings are one of seven teams that will be fighting for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Sacramento will resume their quest to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2005-2006 season and will face the San Antonio Spurs on July 31st. The Kings are currently three-point favorites against the Spurs, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Assuming that Buddy Hield will have recovered from the COVID-19 virus by game time, bettors should lay the points with the Kings. Even though Sacramento may struggle to incorporate Bagley lll into their rotation, the Kings should be considered solid favorites against the Spurs given LaMarcus Aldridge’s absence for the remainder of the season.

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