Premier League Predictions - Match Day 38
BetQL's EPL Predictions for Match Day 38
The EPL is back and in full swing. Each week you will find our Premier League predictions for our favorite handful of games for that Match Day. We will also have our game of the week where you can find a more in depth analysis and prediction. Keep checking back here for more EPL predictions and if you are looking for Premier League picks don't worry BetQL has you covered for every game and every bet type. Let BetQL help you be profitable during the final part of this season with our EPL predictions.
Manchester United v Leicester City
Our Match of the Week is an enticing fixture. The Premier League drama continues as these two sides battle for a profitable Champions League qualification next season. 5th place Leicester City host 3rd place Manchester United. The host Foxes had an excellent start to the season but their form dropped over the second half of the campaign. Injuries and a lack of scoring threats apart from league leader Jamie Vardy have seen the Foxes become a one-dimensional side, though still formidable on their day. The visitors United have had an inverse performance this season. Hovering mid table for most of the year, the arrival of Portuguese maestro Bruno Fernandes in January has galvanized a talented but raw side. The Red Devils have been on fire in recent weeks and will hope their momentum will help them cement a Champions League place.
In their prior match this season, United took the 3 points courtesy of an early penalty kick from Marcus Rashford, so Leicester will have extra motivation to get the victory. The book currently has the line Leicester City +226, but our model thinks they are a bit underrated and we placed the line at +157. While that makes United the favorites, Accuscore also projects a 27.7% chance of a draw. The Accuscore crew also think Leicester City ought to be favorites, with a 38.8% chance of victory over 10,000 simulations. We think this will be an edgy encounter that should burst open in the second half and it is going to be a must see fixture.
West Ham v Aston Villa
This is a big game to watch given the high stakes, and hundreds of millions of pounds, involved. West Ham are safe from relegation by a mere point but the visitors Aston Villa need points to ensure their great escape. Currently sitting safely in 17th with the advantage on goal difference, a win for the Villans and a loss or draw from Watford would see the Birmingham side stay up. Villa are in good form, coming off a win over Arsenal and a draw vs Everton. West Ham drew United 1-1 to ensure their safety and beat Watford and Norwich emphatically in the past two weeks. Both sides share similar color badges and kits but Villa fans will pray they don’t share points in this one.
There’s not much to choose between these sides and our pals at Accuscore think it is really tight, too. Over their 10,000 simulations, Aston Villa won 33.5%, compared to 34.4% for West Ham United, while there is a 32.2% chance of a draw. It really doesn’t get much tighter than that. Aston Villa will be the more inspired team to win but inspiration doesn't always equal wins. West Ham has been scoring the ball lately and they will look to solidify their standings. A draw is a decent outcome for both sides here, but we expect Villa to throw everything they have into this match against a secure West Ham side with nothing to play for.
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Everton v Bournemouth
Another top clash this weekend is 19th place Bournemouth in their final decisive match at 11th place Everton. The Cherries need 3 points and a fair share of luck to possibly hop over Watford and Villa to safety. Everton have been up and down this season, but with nothing to really play for, they might lack the motivation to spar with a determined opponent. Bournemouth will take pride in the fact that they beat Everton 3-1 back in September with Callum Wilson bagging a brace, but they are coming off consecutive losses and have looked very poor since the restart. Everton dug out a 1-0 victory over Sheffield United last match but have been up and down with losses and draws recently.
Bournemouth don’t have complete control over their fate but 3 points are non-negotiable to even have a prayer at survival. If Bournemouth isn't careful they will drop the points and find them selves reading books on the beach in the offseason training to get reading for their next season in the Championship league. Premier League fans would certainly like to see the Cherries and boss Eddie Howe make a great escape. The Accuscore team is projecting a 28.8% chance of a draw and the odds of a victory for either side are tight. Everton has a 38.1% chance of victory while the strugglers Bournemouth have a 33.1% chance of three points. Bournemouth have shown their resoluteness over the years, but has their luck finally run out? Neutrals and supporters alike should tune in for this nail-biter.
Arsenal v Aston Villa
Tuesday 7/21 3:15 PM ET
Matchday 37 brings a host of high stakes matches and high stakes EPL predictions, this is no exception. 10th place Arsenal hang just outside a European qualification place while the host Aston Villa are currently in 18th place, fighting for their lives with a slight chance of survival. In their previous match back in September, Arsenal overcame Villa 3-2 at the Emirates Stadium in London, so the home side will certainly want to exact revenge on the visitors. Aston Villa’s home record is poor; their 21 points from a potential 54 put them 18th in the league. The visiting Gunners also have an away record in line with their overall form, sitting 10th in the league with 20 from 54 points and -3 goal difference. Lately, Arsenal have been quite solid and are riding high after beating Man City 2-0 in the FA Cup Semi-final and defeating champions Liverpool 2-1 in their previous league fixture.
A draw could be a valuable bet in this match up as both teams will be fighting for points. Arsenal could have some heavy legs after their weekend cup tie and Villa will have had a bit more rest, giving them an advantage. Our friends at Accuscore are also predicting a tight one. They project a 29.3% chance of a draw, 35.4% for an Arsenal victory, and 35.4% for Villa. Can Villa summon the courage and energy for a brave final push? A win would be massive and could put them tied with Watford on 34 points, depending on Watford’s result vs Man City. The Premier League has been tricky to predict during Project Restart, but we can all be sure of a passionate, skillful performance from both sides in this fixture.
Chelsea v Liverpool
Wednesday 7/22 3:15 PM ET
Here is a fixture involving two of the Premier League’s best clubs. The crowned champions Liverpool will host 3rd place Chelsea at Anfield. Although Liverpool don’t have much to play for, they will want to put in a champion worthy performance to show Chelsea they still have a long way to go. Overall, Chelsea have done well since the restart and have crept into 3rd place and are hopeful of clinching a Champions League place, quite an accomplishment for manager Frank Lampard and his squad of promising youngsters. When the two sides met at Stamford Bridge in September, the Reds upset the Blues 2-1 through goals from Trent Alexander-Arnold and Bobby Firmino. A big question for the Blues will be the team selection, as Lampard may rotate a few players after their FA Cup Semi-final on Sunday.
Liverpool have shown vulnerabilities lately but they are still the league’s top team for many reasons. The moneyline likes them at +108, but our model has a different view, placing the odds for Liverpool at -149. Chelsea’s defense has been very suspect at times this season, and although they sit 3rd in the table, they are 5th on goal difference at +15. The Accuscore team projects Liverpool as heavy favorites with a 60% chance of a victory and only a 14.6% chance of victory for the visiting Blues. While American attacker Christian Pulisic has a 14% chance of scoring a goal or more, Mo Salah of Liverpool is a safer bet at 40%. While it is difficult to say in this Premier League prediction who will definitively win we can say the ball in at Liverpool's feet. If they select the first team and come out looking for three points they should be able to get them. Chelsea has had major issues stopping teams from scoring that have much less talent in the final third than Liverpool. Although Accuscore's model points towards a 60% chance the under 2.5 goals hits, our gut says this game will have a few goals. Chelsea will be motivated to score and win, and Liverpool has scored at least one goal in four of their last five games.
West Ham v Manchester United
Wednesday 7/22 1:00 PM ET
Even in the second to last matchday, the Premier League is full of scenarios and drama. This fixture is no different, with a chance to secure Champions League football for the hosts Manchester United and West Ham needing at least a point to secure Premier League football next year. In their previous encounter this season, West Ham put in a great performance at home to win 2-0 at the London Stadium. But Man United are much stronger this time around, and West Ham are coming off back to back wins over relegation battlers Watford and Norwich, so this will be an enticing showdown. United have a dense roster of talented players and excellent team cohesion at the moment. Bruno Fernandes pulls the strings and Rashford, Martial, and Greenwood have been absolutely prolific. If the Hammers want to come away from Old Trafford with points, they will need to defend as a unit and capitalize on their few chances. Check it out here
If you’re feeling lucky, you could go for a West Ham victory, which is +1089 on the moneyline. Our model shows that the line may be a bit inflated as we have this game at Hammers +713, and if Man United has heavy legs after their FA Cup match against Chelsea, this could be an opportune moment for David Moyes’ West Ham side to pull an upset. The Accuscore stats crew projects the Red Devils as big favorites with a 66.5% chance of a victory, but only 12.3% for West Ham. They also predict 2.1 goals for the Red Devils versus just 0.8 for the Hammers. Although West Ham has put together a string of good games and goals, they have not been playing against top tier talent. Man United is much better than Norwich or Watford even on their worst day. Man United will get it done and bag 3 points to jump into 4th place, but David Moyes might have a trick up his sleeve to defeat his old employers
Liverpool v Arsenal
Wednesday 7/15 3:15 PM ET
Our EPL prediction of the week for Match Day 36 is Premier League champions Liverpool traveling to the Emirates Stadium to face 9th place Arsenal in what ought to be a quality match. A win for the Gunners would keep them in the European hunt but three points for Liverpool brings them closer to setting the all time league points record. Back in August, the Reds sent Arsenal packing with a 3-1 victory, with Mo Salah bagging a brace in that match. But this is a very different Arsenal side. Granted, still woefully unpredictable in defense as they showed vs Spurs last match, but with much more grit and unison than in the Unai Emery era. Liverpool have cooled their pace since clinching the title, with a loss against City and a draw vs Burnley in their previous fixture, so the Arsenal have a decent shot of an upset.
The Accuscore boys are putting chances of a draw at 27.2%, while Liverpool win 47.6% of their simulations. The moneyline is a draw at +298, although we’ve got a draw at +103, so this is a bit of a tricky one. We definitely see Liverpool getting a goal or two as Mane and Salah isolate against Arsenal’s three center backs, but Aubameyang and Lacazette are on fire and could put a few away for the Gunners. This match will have a host of attacking talent on display with some burgeoning young prospects as well, such as Liverpool’s Curtis Jones and Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka on the pitch. Arsenal has all the reason in the world to win but they may not have the talent to get it done. A heart breaking loss to a Spurs team that is in bad form could be the nail in the coffin for Gunners. Top clubs and quality footballers make this a can’t-miss fixture this weekend.
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Watford v West Ham
Friday 7/17 3:00 PM ET
Premier League Matchday 36 will witness a tightly contested encounter between two teams hovering just above relegation. The Premier League not only has good competition at the top of the table, but now the relegation battle is heating up. Elton John’s very own Watford will host West Ham at the Hawthorns. Both teams are tied on 34 points, with West Ham in 16th and Watford in 17th, 3 points above Bournemouth who occupy 18th. West Ham beat Watford 3-1 in Matchday 3 behind a double from striker Sebastien Haller. Recently, Watford are in form with 2 consecutive victories and West Ham smoked Norwich with a quadruple from Michail Antonio in their last game.
We’ve got two streaky teams in desperate need of points to clinch safety. The line currently sits at West Ham (+144), but our model is leaning more towards West Ham, placing the line at (-144). A draw doesn't seem too far out of the question when Watford goes up against West Ham on Friday, and our pals at Accuscore have projected a 20.9% chance of a draw. Barring a draw, they predict West Ham to win at 59.1% and estimate 2.6 goals for the Hammers to just 1.6 for the Hornets. West Ham has packed a scoring punch in their recent games and they will look to continue that form against Watford. Although no single player has shouldered the goal scoring load this season, which can be a blessing and a curse. As of late the goals have come from both Michail Antonio and Tomáš Souček, Watford will need a solid game plan to stop those two if they want to leave this match with some points. Watford has not been in great form since Project Restart, but they have won their last two matches against Norwich and Newcastle. They will be fighting for points to attempt to avoid dreaded relegation. In their last two matches Watford was able to score two goals in both, we don't see that happening when they play West Ham. West Ham has been in much better form and played well even against top of the table teams.
All Premier League fans should tune in for this match, the type that really matters with the prospect of safety - or relegation- on the horizon.
Bournemouth v Manchester City
Wednesday 7/15 1:00 PM ET
This match showcases two sides with quite a gap between them. 2nd place Man City will host 18th place Bournemouth at the Etihad for a momentous match. City can be content in their position in 2nd place, with a healthy 12 point lead on the next closest side, but the visiting Cherries need to summon a courageous display to get 3 points in their fight for survival. City are coming off back-to-back 5-0 victories while Bournemouth have beaten Leicester decisively 4-1 and drew Spurs in their last 2 matches, so both teams have been playing well.
City are definitely the better side, as is the case in 99% of their matches, but their comfort in the table could open the door for Eddie Howe’s boys to earn memorable points. Although our friends at Accuscore predict a 76.7% chance of victory for the Citizens and an estimated 2.7 goals scored, you never know what might happen. This match is a tough game to bet because Manchester City is such a force to be reckoned with, and such a big favorite compared to Bournemouth. Although Bournemouth has put up a fight against top table since Project Restart this game comes down to how much with Man City win by.
The main betting angle for this game will be the over under line. Currently the over under sits at 3.5 goals with over (-141) and under (+114) but looking at their recent form these two teams can score goals. Bournemouth has surprisingly scored goals against Manchester United and Leicester City in their recent matches. Man City will be good for at least two goals so if you are betting the over you are betting that Bournemouth will be able to find the back of the net. AccuScore's simulation data points towards betting the under while our gut is trending towards betting the over. Hopefully this match between the top of the table and the bottom of the table team will be exciting and our Premier league predictions will come true.
Chelsea v Sheffield United
Saturday 7/11 12:30 PM ET
Stamford Bridge is the venue for a heated match up between hosts Chelsea and Sheffield United. 3rd place Chelsea are coming off a clutch 3-2 win over Crystal Palace and want to keep momentum going to cement their presence in the Champions League places. Visiting club Sheffield United have had a rocky return since the restart but came up with a huge stoppage time goal to get 3 points vs Wolves last week. Chelsea has been solid at home this season and possess the 6th best home record in the Premier League, gaining 30 points from a potential 51. Although Chelsea have scored nearly twice as many goals as Sheffield this season (63 to 35), the visiting Blades have one of the tightest defenses in the league and are tied for 3rd in the league with only 33 goals against in 34 matches.
When these two sides faced off in August, they bumbled to a 2-2 draw at Sheffield’s Bramall Lane. A draw would not be out of the question for the outcome of this match. The odds for a draw currently sit at +288, while Sheffield is the clear underdog at (+489). Chelsea on the other hand is the overwhelming favorite at (-152). The game is in Chelsea's hands and it simply comes down to their defense and their ability to score. Although Chelsea beat Crystal Palace last match day they allowed two goals to the Eagles who have the second lowest goals for in the EPL. Chelsea's back line has been out of form as of late, and Sheffield has proved they have the ability to get lucky with a few chances.
If we do see goals from Chelsea we believe it could easily come from Abraham. Chelsea's target man at the top, Tammy Abraham has bagged 14 this season, including 2 vs the Blades earlier this season. Both teams are playing for European competition and will exhibit contradictory philosophies that make this fixture one of the matchday’s best!
Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur
Sunday 7/12 11:30 AM ET
One of our “Games of the Week” and our favorite EPL prediction is the fiery North London derby. Arsenal will begrudgingly host their hated rivals Spurs at the Emirates Stadium. Both sides are scrapping for European competition next season, with 8th place Arsenal just one point ahead of Spurs, who are in 9th. They are both breathing down the necks of Wolves and Sheffield, who are only a few points above. Combining traditional rivalry with a contemporary struggle for European qualification makes this a can’t-miss match up. Both sides drew 2-2 earlier this season, but that was prior to the reign of current managers Mikel Arteta and Jose Mourinho, so this match will be a completely different animal.
So, how is this one going to turn out? Arsenal have looked on the upswing lately while Spurs are simply floundering without a sense of team style or personality. Could this be the match that gets them back on track? Our friends at Accuscore have run simulations on this game and there is a 31.2% chance of a draw but otherwise Arsenal have a slight advantage of winning at 38.4% compared to 30.3% for Spurs. We will see two of the league’s, and world’s, best strikers in the form of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Harry Kane, but we think this will be a tight one without too many goals.
Everton v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunday 7/12 7:00 AM ET
Rounding out our Matchday 35 Premier League predictions is another battle between two very above average sides with excellent managerial leadership. The host Wolves sit in 6th place with 52 points, just barely qualifying for a Europa League place. But a strong finish to the season could also place Everton, currently in 11th with 45 points, in a similar position. Wolves lost a late heartbreaker against Sheffield United in their previous match, while Everton drew 1-1 against Southampton. Wolves are a side that like to keep the ball, while Everton play a bit more of a direct counter attacking style. Wolves have an average home record this season, good for 11th in the league, while Everton’s away form has been less than optimal, with only 15 points from a potential 51 and a -13 goal difference.
While Wolves are a stronger side, they have slowed down in the past week. Regardless, the line has them at +109 and our model places the line pretty close to that, with a +102 projection. While our buddies at Accuscore predict a 29.6% chance of a draw, we don’t expect either team to hold back in this one, given all that is on the line in a dwindling season. Mexican striker Raul Jimenez has 15 goals this season and is projected to have a 39% chance of scoring and when he has at least one goal, Wolves have a 72% chance to win. We expect Everton manager Carlo Ancelotti to set his side up to play on the defensive for most of the match but spring forward into the spaces vacated by Wolves’ attacking wing backs. Although Everton have not been prolific this season, they do have two players, Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, who are in double digits, with 13 and 12 goals, respectively. Tune in Sunday for a high stakes match up between two clubs on the rise!
Leicester City v Arsenal
Tuesday 7/7 3:15 PM ET
League play kicks off with a juicy fixture this Friday as two of England’s most exciting clubs face off. With 9 points lifting the Foxes above the Gunners in the standings, both teams pushing for a European qualification place. Both teams are playing well; Arsenal are coming off an invigorating 2-0 win over Wolves, while Leicester got back on track with a 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace. Leicester beat the Gunners 2-0 in their previous game this season, so David Luiz and co will be intent on getting payback.
This game could really go in a few directions. While Arsenal are at +140, our model shows them at more of a favorite at -111, so it might be worth it to go for the underdog Leicester in this one. Our friends Accuscore have announced a 28.2% chance of a draw. We definitely expect a goal or two from each side, especially with two of the Premier League’s best strikers on display. For Leicester City, league leader Jamie Vardy has a 31% chance of scoring, while his nemesis Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang of Arsenal has a 47% chance of scoring 1 or more goals. These two players are fighting one another for the EPL's Golden Boot award so you have to think there is a good shot one of them gets on the board. All Premier League fans should tune in for what is guaranteed to be a juicy affair with brave attacking teams.
Newcastle United v Manchester City
Wednesday 7/8 1:00 PM ET
2nd place Manchester City host 12th place Newcastle United in what is sure to be a quality Premier League match. A win for City keeps them clear in 2nd place, but three points for Newcastle pushes them into a more comfortable position with a slight chance at a Europa league place. City thrashed their arch enemy Liverpool 4-0 last matchday and have excellent form at home, accumulating 38 from a possible 48 points this campaign. Although City got slapped with a bit of reality over the weekend when they dropped a fixture to Southampton. Newcastle have been in unexpectedly good form since the restart and come into the match with 3 wins and 2 draws in their previous 5 matches. During this match up in November, the Magpies fought City to a valuable 2-2 draw.
Unfortunately for City, leading scorer Sergio Aguero will still be out due to injury, but their team strength lies in a broad array of attacking threats such as Raheem Sterling and Phil Foden. Newcastle are at +2,020 which shows how much of an underdog they are in this match up. If you’re feeling lucky, that could be a good play. But let’s be real: City seem to be playing well and they are one of the best teams in the world. In simulations from our friends at Accuscore, Manchester City have a 76.0% chance of victory when the game is not a draw. Premier League viewers can expect a tumultuous first half and staunch, conservative efforts from the visiting Magpies.
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Sheffield United
Wednesday 7/8 1:00 PM ET
The Premier League’s 6th and 8th placed teams will face off in Sheffield. Both teams have a lot to lose and more to gain, so this is sure to be an intense showdown at Bramall Lane. Wolves will be disappointed with their 2-0 loss to Arsenal over the weekend. The Blades have seemed to turn things around after losing 2 matches since the restart, but comfortably beat Spurs and drew Burnley in their last 2 outings.These are 2 of the league’s most cohesive, best coached teams, and both are fighting for Europa League football next season. Back in December, the two sides traded goals for a 1-1 draw at Molineux.
Despite home advantage, Sheffield United are at +258 (we have them at +241), and Accuscore says there is a 32.1% chance of a draw. Both teams are pretty even, and when the game is not a draw Wolverhampton Wanderers are solid favorites at 38.6%. If any individual player is likely to get a goal, it is probably Raúl Jiménez of Wolves, who already has 15 this season. Both teams have a very solid 11 clean sheets this season, so expect it to be low scoring. We are really looking forward to this meeting of two excellent squads with high stakes on the line.
Everton v Tottenham Hotspur
Monday 7/6 3:00 PM ET
This match gathers two talented Premier League teams that are a mere point apart. The 9th place hosts Tottenham Hotspur will be gunning for 3 points as they compete to qualify for European football next season. The visitors Everton, although they are in 11th place, are part of a dense pack of clubs seeking to gain Europa League qualification and they are still in the hunt.
Back in November 2019, the two sides drew 1-1 at Goodison Park, with Everton striker Cenk Tosun rescuing a point in the 97th minute. Fans of both sides will remember it as the match where Spurs striker Son Heung-Min broke Everton midfielder Andre Gomes’ leg with a clumsy but brutal challenger, earning himself a red card in the process. Everton are coming off a big 2-1 win vs Leicester City, while the host Spurs fell 3-1 in a lackluster showing vs Sheffield United.
On paper, Spurs are the better side but Everton have looked strong since the restart. Since Project Restart kicked off Spurs have been nothing but a disappointment, while Everton surprised everyone but coming out and quickly putting down Leicester. If you want to bet purely off form Everton is the easy pick over Spurs.
Watford v Chelsea
Saturday 7/4 at 3:00 PM ET
4th place Chelsea hosts 17th place Watford for a tricky tie at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea looked good in a 2-1 victory of Manchester City but surrendered a late goal to fall 3-2 vs West Ham on Wednesday. Watford fell 3-1 to Southampton in the previous match and are still sitting near the relegation zone. For Chelsea, this a good opportunity for Frank Lampard’s young in-form side to add another 3 points in their quest for Champions League soccer next season. In opposition, an upset victory for Watford would do wonders for their morale as they strive to survive another year in England’s top division. In their previous match up, Chelsea beat Watford 2-1 at Vicarage Road with American Christian Pulisic getting the ultimate game winner in the 55th minute.
Watford have lost 3 of their last 5, although they did beat the Champions Liverpool, showing that on their day they can cause problems for anyone. Chelsea come in as the heavy favorite (-240) and Accuscore’s simulations are showing a 69.8% chance of victory for Chelsea. Obviously games are not played on paper and Chelsea came into their match against West Ham as a heavy favorite as well. Chelsea's back line is an absolute mess right now and will need to perform at a much higher level for Chelsea to win. Allowing 3 goals on 3 shots on goal will not help anyone win their bets. Whether they get 3 points is unknown, but they are likely to find the net, with Accuscore predicting 2.17 goals in this match. With the over under line sitting at 2.5 we strongly recommend betting the under.
Arsenal v Wolves
Saturday 7/4 @ 12:30 PM ET
6th place Wolves will host 8th place Arsenal in a quality match on the 4th of July. Wolves are coming off a 1-0 win over Aston Villa while the Gunners trounced bottom dwellers Norwich City 4-0. This match also features two of the league’s most prolific strikers. Arsenal’s Pierre Emerick Aubameyang is now tied for the league lead with 19 goals and Wolves striker Raul Jimenez has 15 goals this season, good for 6th in the league. In their previous encounter this campaign, Wolves and Arsenal played to a 1-1 draw with both Aubameyang and Jimenez getting on the scoresheet.
Only 6 points apart, both teams are striving for a European qualification place. The moneyline has Arsenal at +233 but our model placed this line at +168, surprisingly Wolves enter this match as the favorite (+126), but we believe Arsenal will put up a better fight than the odds makers believe. Although our data shows this game will be close, Wolves are the more well rounded and cohesive team. Arsenal may have some top talents like Aubameyang on paper, but so far Wolves have outplayed the Gunners all season. Accuscore is showing a 31.5% chance of a draw, 37.3% chance Arsenal wins, and 30.6% chance Wolves win. Obviously this match could go any way and may come down to a gut play. The draw may be the best bet for this game, or waiting until half to place could could be a good call for what is sure to be a rapid match between two clubs with plenty to play for.
Leicester City v Everton
Wednesday 7/1 at 1:00 PM ET
Our Match of the Week is an appealing affair, with 3rd place Leicester City hosting 10th place Everton. The host Foxes have had an excellent season and are hoping to maintain their position to qualify for the Champions League. Everton have had a bumpier campaign in 2019/20, but their roster is full of talented players with great upside, along with legendary manager Carlo Ancelotti at the helm. Jamie Vardy, who has a 52% probability of scoring according to our friends at AccuScore, will lead the line for Leicester but James Maddison and Youri Tielemans are other key players to watch for the home side.
A win from the underdog Everton would not be unthinkable but they will need to generate a fair amount of opportunities to do it. Everton have not exactly been clinical this season, but the likes of Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin are definitely capable of causing problems for Leicester’s stellar defense. At the end of the day, the Leicester City is certainly the better, more cohesive side in every facet of the game.
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Manchester United v Brighton Hove Albion
Tuesday 6/30 at 3:15PM ET
This is a big game to watch given the form United are in, while the visitors Brighton are looking for a cheeky point or three to keep distance away from the relegation pack. United have the 3rd best home record in the league, slightly outperforming their 5th place position in the overall table. At 15th, Brighton are 6 points above relegation and their away form has not been very robust this season, with only 12 points from a possible 38 and a -10 goal difference. The fearsome combination of Bruno Fernandes, Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford and Paul Pogba are starting to click for United and they are almost guaranteed to put a goal or two past Brighton’s Aussie keeper Mat Ryan.
United striker Martial is coming off a hat trick and will be hoping to find the net again while Pogba is, remarkably, looking for his first Premier League goal of the season. On the other hand, Brighton have resumed league play quite well, with a draw vs Leicester and a victory over Arsenal courtesy of goals from center back Lewis Dunk and leading scorer Neal Maupay. United are stronger but Brighton could get a point if they come out with intensity and put United’s back line under pressure.
BetQL's model is leaning towards betting the draw (+261) in this matchup. According to our friends at AccuScore, there is a 31.4% chance of a draw. Our simulations believe that Brighton will continue their most recent stellar form. If you aren't interested in betting a draw we would recommend backing United (-137), although there aren't great odds for the Red Devils. United’s Martial is a good prop bet to score and United have a 74% chance of victory when he does.
Looking at the over / under line BetQL's model is leaning towards Under 2.5 goals (-129), although this is only a 2 star best bet rating for us. Our friends at AccuScore agree with our under bet recommendation. AccuScore's game projection simulation puts a 38% chance the under hits when Manchester United play Brighton. Both AccuScore and BetQL's data sets projects a low scoring affair as this game could easily end in a 0-0 draw or at most a 1-0 finish.
Newcastle v Bournemouth
Wednesday 7/1 at 1:00 PM ET
Another top clash this weekends is 18th place Bournemouth at home vs Newcastle United, who sit in 13th place. Although this might not be the most exciting game of this match day we thought it would be important to cover it in our Premier League predictions. As they have all season, Bournemouth struggled in their previous match vs Wolves, losing 1-0 and failing to generate many opportunities. Newcastle, on the other hand, are coming off a 1-1 versus relegation battlers Aston Villa, thanks to a Dwight Gayle goal. Neither team has been particularly prolific this season, and while the hosts are certainly the more technical attacking side, the visiting Magpies have profited from a hard-nosed, disciplined approach under boss Steve Bruce.
Newcastle are probably safe from relegation this season, but 3 points on the road would certainly be welcomed. Newcastle showed they can hit the back of the net when they played Sheffield and scored 3 goals. They may have played to a draw in their last game, but when Newcastle is on they can score. On the other hand, Bournemouth absolutely need points from this advantageous home fixture, and 4 of 7 wins this season have come at home. Although they have good character in the team, Bournemouth have struggled with consistency. On their day, they can certainly be dangerous going forward, especially on the counter attack. Bournemouth score more goals than Newcastle but they also tend to concede more, so there will most likely be a goal or two courtesy of the likes of Callum Wilson or Josh King for Bournemouth.
BetQL's model is leaning towards Bournemouth in this match up. The line for Bournemouth sits at (+136) but our model placed the line at (-123) which shows there is some good value here for Bournemouth. We have Bournemouth as a 3 star pick so there is some confidence around this play. Although Bournemouth has had some trouble scoring since the EPL returned they haven't played a team as low on the table as Newcastle. This will be Bournemouth's big opportunity to pull them selves up and miss out on relegation. Our friends at AccuScore have run simulations for Bournemouth vs. Newcastle and their data shows there is a 55% chance that Bournemouth wins this game straight up, which makes them a heavy favorite. In their simulations there is a 29% chance for a draw and Newcastle winning the game only occurred in 15% of the simulations.
In terms of this EPL over under BetQL's data shows a 2 star bet on under 2 goals. Neither team here is well known for their scoring and our data points towards a low scoring match. AccuScore's data matches BetQL and they have a 40% chance of this game hitting the under. Callum Wilson has a 33% to score in this match up while Newcastle's Jonjo Shelvey has a 15% to pout on in the back of the net. When Bournemouth's top man Callum Wilson scores at least one goal Bournemouth has an 80% chance to win. AccuScore's final score prediction for the average simulation is AFC Bournemouth 1.4 to Newcastle United 0.6.
Liverpool v Manchester City
Wednesday 7/2 at 3:15 PM ET
The Premier League’s two best teams square off at the Etihad Stadium, the home of Manchester City. Given that Liverpool has already clinched the title, this matchup has lost a bit of significance, but it will still be a display of top class footy, nonetheless. City have only lost twice at home this season and a victory over the Champions will be the closest they come to a silver lining on this campaign for Pep Guardiola’s side. On the other hand, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool squad will want to definitively show the world they are the best English side and will be motivated for an intense clash against the Citizens. City are coming off a 2-1 loss to Chelsea while Liverpool thrashed Crystal Palace 4-0 in their most recent match.
In their previous match this year, Liverpool beat City 3-1 through a Man of the Match performance by Sadio Mane. With nothing to lose, we are counting on both managers to throw caution to the wind and slug it out in this heavyweight clash. Fans and neutrals will be intrigued to see the league’s two top attacking sides put some goals on the board. Although our data is showing a 28.5% chance of a draw, we do like Liverpool. They’re at +280 and we think they will get the win to show the league, and the world, who is the best.
Chelsea v Manchester City
Thursday 6/25 @ 3:15pm ET
Our Match of the Week is a showdown between two of the Premier League’s biggest clubs, Chelsea and Manchester City. The hosts Chelsea are coming off a 2-1 win over Aston Villa while City flattened Arsenal 3-0 on the opening day of the EPL’s “Project Restart”. Chelsea need 3 points in their push for European football and are currently 4th in the league, while City will seek to expand their cushion over 3rd place Leicester City. Decent at home, Chelsea’s record at Stamford Bridge is 8th in the league this season, but they have had trouble keeping clean sheets, collecting a mere 6 from 30 matches. In opposition, City have the league’s most potent and prolific offense, amassing a +16 goal difference away from home. There will definitely be goals in this one, but this young Chelsea side have a point to prove and will be up for the challenge. City have an abundance of attacking threats but have had some bumps in the road this campaign. If Chelsea’s midfield partnership of N'golo Kante and Mateo Kovicacic can contain Kevin DeBruyne and whoever is City’s anchor (either Fernandhinho or Rodri), the Blues will give themselves an optimal chance to gain 3 crucial points.
Manchester United v Sheffield United
Wednesday 6/24 @1pm ET
Old Trafford will play host to an intense duel between 5th place Manchester United and the visiting 7th place Blades of Sheffield United. Separated by only 2 points in the table, this match is a priceless opportunity for each club as they compete for European qualification. Man United have been in good form lately and the return of Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford will bolster a talented but adolescent side. Sheffield’s discipline and savvy have brought them unexpected returns this season, and they have the 2nd most clean sheets in the league. Overall, it is still too early to evaluate each team’s quality since the break. The Red Devils are coming off a 1-1 draw versus Spurs, while the Blades are hoping to recuperate after a harsh 3-0 loss to Newcastle United. We think the Red Devils are on the rise, while Sheffield is still grappling with the highs and lows of their first season in the Premier League. We like the home team in this one and look forward to the prospect of Pogba and Bruno Fernandes teaming up in the United midfield for a full 90 minutes.
Tottenham v West Ham United
Tuesday 6/23 @ 1pm ET
Matchweek 31 serves up another treat in the form of a London derby: Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United. 8th place Spurs beat 17th place West Ham 3-2 in November in boss Jose Mournho’s first match in charge. In their previous matchweeks, Spurs drew Man United 0-0 while West Ham capitulated 2-0 to Wolves. Although Spurs have been strong at home this season, the Hammers are less than stellar on the road, with a -12 goal difference. But it’s a derby and anything can happen. January signing Steven Berwijn has 3 goals in 6 matches for Spurs and showed his class with a solo goal against United on the weekend. To stave off relegation, West Ham will need to do what they have great difficulty doing this season, and that is score goals. While the Hammers have numerous individual talents, they have not seemed to gel into a cohesive unit, something gaffer David Moyes will need to rectify immediately. We like Spurs in this one and it’s likely Harry Kane will score his first goal since returning from injury last week.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United
Friday June 19, 3:15pm ET
Matchweek 30 is jam packed with great games and this is arguably the biggest. It’s got critical points on the line, dramatic narratives, and two top quality sides. 8th place Tottenham will host 5th place Manchester United and both sides need 3 points to fuel their push for European competition next season. United won their previous matchup this year, beating Spurs 2-1 courtesy of a brace from Marcus Rashford.
Spurs have struggled this year and new manager Jose Mourinho is still striving to put his mark on the team. At home this season, they have collected 26 of a possible 42 points, a record that is good for 5th in the league. On their day, Spurs are a stout defensive side with the ability to strike like lightning on the counter. The break has certainly played into Spurs’ hands, as it has allowed time for key players Harry Kane, Moussa Sissoko, and January arrival Steven Bergwijn to rehab.
United started the season poorly but have bounced back in recent months. They currently sit 5th with 45 points and are hoping to sneak into 4th for the final Champions League spot. On the road, United have been pretty poor. They have suffered 6 of their 8 losses away from home and have a -3 GD away from Old Trafford this season. On the bright side for United, Paul Pogba is back from injury and it will be interesting to see how he links with Bruno Fernandes, whose arrival in the United midfield has galvanized the team.
Both teams will want to kick off the restart with a massive win. United have lacked maturity at times this season and have struggled to find the back of the net consistently. But there is no doubt that they have some top class difference makers such as Marcus Rashford, Pogba and Fernandes. For Spurs, a strong home win is critical as they sit on the edge of the Europa League spots. If they can come out of the gates with high intensity and hit United on the counter, they should put one or two past United.
Read our full Tottenham vs. Man U prediction to see all of the data, analysis, and best bets we have for this match up
Everton v Liverpool
Sunday June 21, 2pm ET
Premier League fans couldn’t pick a much better roster of matches to resume league play and the Merseyside derby is certainly one to watch for. It will be eerie to see an empty Goodison Park when 12th place Everton host their eternal rivals Liverpool, the massive frontrunner for the Premier League trophy. In their first encounter this season, Liverpool rolled to a 5-2 victory and Everton will want to strike back and salvage their pride. The Toffees are solid at home, with 25 points from a potential 42 good for 7th in the league. But Liverpool have been unbelievable both home and away, with their sole loss coming away to Watford back in February.
Everton have some talented players in the likes of Richarlison and Dominic Calvert Lewin, whose 13 goals lead the team. But the home side will have to defend for most of the match and do it resolutely if they are going to come away with points in this one. It will be interesting to see how Liverpool resume after a long break. Aside from their talent on the field, their work rate and mental toughness have impressed more than anything else, so we expect them to pick up where they left off and roll towards their first title in decades. A win against their city rivals will just be the icing on the cake.
Read our full Liverpool vs. Everton prediction to see all of the data, analysis, and best bets we have for this match up
Manchester City v Burnley
Monday June 22, 3pm ET
A tale of two philosophies, this match pits the league’s most cerebral, aesthetic side in Manchester City against arguably its most utilitarian and gritty in Burnley. 2nd place City have been quite good at home this season with 29 points from a potential 39 that ranks 3rd in the league. Burnley, 10th in the overall table and away from home, are a resilient side that have 16 points on the road this season while garnering a -7 GD.
City won the precious matchup this season by a solid 4-1 scoreline, with Burnley only scoring in the 89th minute. But over the past few years, the matchup has tended to result either in a big win for City (like the one back in December) or a super tight result, like City’s 1-0 win in April 2019, or the 1-1 draw in February 2018. City’s quality and creativity should lead to many chances and if they can convert them, it should be a handy victory. But if Burnley are up for it and can win the aerial battles and set pieces, which City tend to struggle with, the Clarets could spring a surprise. Fans should tune in for the chance to witness the opposite spectrums of top flight English soccer and a battle of two baldies in City manager Pep Guardiola and Burnley boss Sean Dyche.
Aston Villa v Sheffield United
Wednesday June 17, 1pm ET
Premier League new boys Aston Villa and Sheffield United will tango this Wednesday as the mighty English Premier League returns. The hosts Villa are in dire need of a win as they sit in 19th place with just 25 points. The visitors Sheffield United have defied expectations this season and currently sit in 7th place ahead of Tottenham and Arsenal in the hunt for a Europa League place. Villa’s home record is less than desirable this season; their 17 points from a possible 39 put them 17th in the league. The visiting Blades have been decent on the road this season, collecting 19 points from 39, making them 7th in the league away from home.
The Villans have shown quality this season but have struggled to win crucial points. Villa’s defense has been shaky this season and their -22 goal difference is 2nd worst in the league, but the presence of experienced keeper Pepe Reina should solidify their back line. In Jack Grealish, they have one of the league’s best attacking midfielders and his 7 goals and 6 assists lead the team. They have dearly missed midfielder John McGinn, who has been out with injury since December but will finally return to the field in this match.
With the exception of Leicester City’s success, Sheffield United’s position in 7th may be the season’s biggest surprise. Since the first match of the season, their intensity and courage, combined with efficient counter attacking football, has seen them put out a slew of entertaining performances. The star of the Blades is the team itself, its connections and spirit, that make it greater than the sum of its parts. Their leading scorers are John Fleck and Lys Mousset, while midfielder John Lundstram is a key fulcrum in the middle of the park.
In their previous encounter this season, Sheffield triumphed 2-0 over Villa thanks to two John Fleck goals. Both sides require points for their own purposes and will want to storm out of the gates on Wednesday. Our EPL prediction for this match comes down to this, while Sheffield are the better side, Grealish is always a potential matchwinner for a Villa side fighting to stay up in the Premier League. While a draw is probable, we could see the hosts Aston Villa stealing all 3 points at home.
Manchester City v Arsenal
Wednesday June 17, 3:15pm ET
The clear highlight of the Premier League’s return is this fixture. 2nd place Manchester City will host 9th place Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium. In their earlier encounter this season, City sprung to a 3-0 halftime lead and saw the game out quietly. The visiting Gunners will want to get revenge for that result and they desperately need points if they are to qualify for a European competition this season.
City have the 3rd best home record in the league, with 29 points from a potential 39 and a +21 goal difference. On the other hand, Arsenal are subpar on the road. They have only 14 away points this season from 2 wins and 8 draws in 13 games this campaign. When they are in form, City play scintillating football and can pick defenses apart. For an Arsenal back line that has struggled with consistency and disorganization this season, this could be a recipe for disaster. But the Gunners will have certainly worked to iron out those issues during the long Covid break, and supporters hope to see a new and improved defensive unit. On the bright side, Arsenal have one of the world’s top strikers in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and plenty of pace in the form of Nicolas Pepe and Alexandre Lacazette. Plus, if Mesut Ozil plays well, the Gunners have a chance against any side.
With Liverpool so far ahead already, City don’t have too much to play for in the league this season. Their opponents, however, need to blast out of the gates and build momentum for a climb up the table. Arsenal have more to gain and manager Mikel Arteta knows this City team inside and out. Although Man City is the much better club this Premier League prediction isn't that simple to make, If City are up for it, they should get the home victory, but Arsenal have the quality to cause problems. This is sure to be an enticing, quality match that Premier League fans can’t afford to miss!