Simulations Show Value On This Wide Receiver In 2024

YAC Machine

One of the biggest stories of the 2023 NFL season was rookie Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, who was simply incredible. Not only does he have a legendary and unique name, but his stats were some of the best we have ever seen from a rookie.

He racked up 1,486 yards on 105 receptions, including six touchdowns for the Rams. One of the biggest strengths of his game is his ability to run after he catches the ball, called "Yards After Catch". Last year, he had 632 YAC, which was nearly half of his total. His elusiveness and speed are huge assets, and we think that will translate into a brilliant 2024 season.

BetQL Simulations

Our model simulates the entire 2024 NFL season 10,000 times and then gives us the most likely outcome for every team and player on average. This gives us some outstanding information since we can compare it to what sportsbooks are offering right now.

One bet that immediately caught our eye was Nacua's receiving yards. At most sportsbooks right now, his receiving yards line is set at 1,150.5 yards, so they are projecting him to have quite the sophomore slump. However, we think differently. Our model projects him to finish with 1,403 yards on average, well over this line of 1,150. While it is a bit less than last year, the value here is pretty insane, and I would advise betting it quickly.

Futures Odds

I already mentioned how his receiving yards are much too low, so I also wanted to take a look at some of the other futures bets that he is up for. "Most receiving yards" was interesting, as books have him eighth here at 14/1, behind Tyreek Hill (6/1), CeeDee Lamb (6.5/1), Ja'Marr Chase (9/1), Justin Jefferson (10/1), A.J. Brown (10/1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (12/1), and tied with Garrett Wilson (14/1). If you want to bet him for most receiving touchdowns, he's 20/1 at most places.

Taking a look at some of the award races, he's 300/1 to win NFL MVP. Seeing as how it is nearly impossible for a WR to win that award, I would stay away from that. However, Offensive Player of the Year is much more obtainable, and he is 30/1 in that market as we speak. That certainly is worth a bit of a sprinkle.