Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins Week 1 Preview: Best Bet, Odds, and Prediction

Week 1 Matchup Preview: Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

Date: September 8, 2024, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
BetMGM Odds: Dolphins -185, Dolphins -3.5, O/U 49

The NFL season kicks off with the Jacksonville Jaguars heading to Miami to take on the Dolphins in a Week 1 matchup at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins, coming off a strong offseason, are favored with BetMGM setting the odds at -185 and a spread of -3.5. The Jaguars, led by their young and promising roster, will look to make an early statement on the road. With the over/under set at 49, this game is expected to feature plenty of action and scoring opportunities. In this article, we’ll break down the best bets, odds, and predictions for this intriguing Week 1 contest.

My Best Bet: Dolphins -3.5

Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have gone 9-2 ATS as a favorite and 9-2 ATS in a home game with a total over 45.5. We know how dominant this Fins offense can be under Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and their explosive running backs. The Dolphins have gone 15-6 SU  when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2022 season — 5th-best in NFL. (The Jaguars have allowed 239.1 passing yards per game since the 2022 season — 4th-worst in NFL.) The Dolphins were successful on 57.4% of plays they have run on play action passes last season — 2nd-best in NFL. (The Jaguars allowed their opponents to be successful on 54.3% of plays on play action passes last season — 2nd-worst in NFL.) Additionally, the big play ability will always be there for Miami. They had 19 TDs that were 20+ yards last season — most in NFL and scored eight TDs from their own territory last season — most in NFL.The Jaguars defense allowed successful plays on 76% of rush attempts with a base rush last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 57%. Therefore, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane have great outlooks.

I’m not a Trevor Lawrence guy and believe in new Miami DC Anthony Weaver, who will take over Vic Fangio’s unit that finished 10th in the NFL in total defense last year. Last season, the Jags scored just 56% of the time they crossed the 50 yard line (118 instances), scoring 36 touchdowns and 30 field goals, and had 29 turnovers in that area of the field, which is pretty wild. With Calvin Ridley gone, Lawrence will rely on wideouts Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. as his primary pass-catchers while counting on tight end Evan Engram and running back Travis Etienne to also operate as reliable targets. I’m simply not sold on this group and trust the Fins’ offense to put up some big numbers and light up the scoreboard.

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