Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 Preview: Best Bet, Odds, and Prediction
Buccaneers Look to Utilize Home Field Against Commanders in Week 1 Showdown
Dan Karpuc - Aug 28, 2024, 4:19pm EDT
Week 1 Matchup Preview: Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Date: September 8, 2024, 4:05 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
BetMGM Odds: Buccaneers -165, Buccaneers -3, O/U 41.5
The NFL season continues with a matchup between the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The Buccaneers, coming into the game as favorites with BetMGM setting the odds at -165 and a spread of -3, will look to capitalize on their home advantage. The Commanders, aiming to start the season strong, face a significant challenge on the road. With the over/under set at 41.5, this game is projected to be a closely contested, moderate-scoring affair. In this article, we’ll delve into the best bets, odds, and predictions for this intriguing Week 1 contest.
My Best Bet: Buccaneers -3
Coming off a surprising 10-9 SU (12-7 ATS) season which featured a 32-9 playoff win over the Eagles, the Buccaneers have a lot of reasons to feel excited about this year. Most notably, they extended QB Baker Mayfield and retained Mike Evans and Chris Godwin as his main targets. Looking towards this matchup against the Commanders (4-13 SU, 6-10-1 ATS in 2023), I absolutely love Tampa Bay for a few reasons.
First, this Commanders defense will likely struggle against the run again. They allowed 2,155 rushing yards last season, sixth-most in the NFL, and the Buccaneers have gone 9-1 (.900) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2022 season (best in NFL; League Avg: .607).
Secondly, under new HC Dan Quinn and DC Joe Whitt Jr., Washington is going to try to put pressure on the quarterback and be very aggressive. If they stack the box, Tampa Bay should thrive. The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 73% of pass attempts against a stacked front last season (best in NFL; League Avg: 50%).
Finally, I expect Tampa Bay’s defense to put pressure on Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels and continue their run game prevention mentality that’s been obvious under HC Todd Bowles. The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0. I think the Buccaneers are going to be a playoff team and would consider teasing this up to -6.5.
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