Patriots, Chiefs Headline Marquee Week 14 Afternoon Matchup

Chiefs (8-4) at Patriots (10-2)

NE -3, O/U 49, Sunday December 8th, 4:25pm EST

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• The Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) travel to take on the New England Patriots (10-2) in Week 14. 

• The Chiefs are coming off a dominant 40-9 massacre of the Oakland Raiders and have gone 7-5 ATS this season. Kansas City has impressively gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road and the over has gone 7-5 overall in their games. 

• The Patriots are coming off a 28-22 loss to the Houston Texans in which they were thoroughly outplayed on both sides of the ball. New England has gone 7-5 ATS this year and has gone a perfect 5-0 SU at home (3-2 ATS). 

• The Patriots are in first place in the AFC East (one game ahead of the Buffalo Bills) and hold the second spot in the AFC playoff picture. The Chiefs are in first place in the AFC West (two games ahead of the Raiders) and hold the fourth spot in the AFC playoff picture. 

Chiefs 

If you didn’t watch any of last week’s 40-9 Chiefs victory over the Raiders, you might have assumed that Patrick Mahomes went crazy. However, that wasn’t the case, which made Kansas City’s performance even more impressive. Mahomes went just 15-of-29 for 175 yards and two touchdowns (one rushing) while Kansas City’s defense and special teams took center stage. They’ll need a similar multi-dimensional performance if they expect to upset the Patriots in Foxborough this week. It’s worth mentioning that running backs Damien Williams and Darrel Williams will both miss this week’s game due to their respective injuries.

NFL injury expert Will Carroll explains what their absences might mean to Kansas City’s offense in his weekly column. 

There are some positive factors working in Kansas City’s favor. In their last 13 games after two contests of a turnover margin of +2 or better, the Chiefs have gone 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS. Further, in their last 31 games after a win by 14 or more points, the Chiefs have gone 23-8 SU. However, New England’s defense is arguably the most dominant in the entire NFL and have a clear home field advantage that has been evident over Tom Brady’s entire career. 

Check out BetQL's best bets of Week 14!

Patriots

While Brady and the Patriots offense has uncharacteristically struggled recently, there are a few trends to keep note of before jumping on the Chiefs. 

In their last 40 games following a stretch in which they failed to cover in three out of four games, the Patriots have gone 32-8 SU. Additionally, in their last 77 games against teams that outscore their opponents by six-plus points per game, the Patriots have gone 55-22 SU and in their last 100 games against good offensive teams (that score 24-plus points per game), they’ve gone 71-29 SU. 

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Another fact that some across the industry are losing sight of? New England is 10-2. They’re elite. Their offense is still above-average and their defense is historically great. They’ve outscored their opponents by 14.8 points per game this season (2nd in the NFL) and by 17.7 points (best in the NFL) at home. If Brady and the Patriots passing game doesn’t click, look for some combination of Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead to take advantage of the fact that Kansas City has allowed 5.1 yards per carry (2nd-worst in the NFL) and 141.3 rushing yards per game (3rd-worst). 

Prediction

Overall, it wouldn’t be a shock if either of these teams came through with a statement victory in this contest. The Patriots are listed as three-point favorites. BetQL’s NFL Model lists a best bet against the spread, on the moneyline and on the total in this matchup. Find out what they are!