Are you ready for some football?! With the Hall of Fame game and the start of the NFL season getting closer and closer, it's time to start wagering on NFL Futures. DraftKings Sportsbook released a ton of props for bettors to wager on, so let's dig in.
For this post, let's breakdown the favorites and longshots to lead the league in sacks. First, a look at the odds:
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Myles Garrett comes in as the favorite to lead the league in sacks at +750 on DK. Understandably so, as Cleveland's star racked up 12 sacks last season over just 14 games. Garrett also had 10 sacks in 2019. Garrett had 59 pressures last season, and that number should go up this year. Cleveland boasts one of the most talented teams in all of football, so the opportunities should be there. Not to mention, he looks like he's in great shape from his social media posts. As long as he can stay healthy, he'll be in the mix to lead the league in sacks.
The monster, Aaron Donald, comes in as the co-favorite to lead the league in sacks at +750. Donald finished second in the league in this category last season, compiling 13.5 sacks. He also had 12.5 sacks in 2019 and led the league in sacks in 2018, with 20.5. Per PFF, Donald's 98 pressures during the regular season were 22 more than any other player. You can make the case for Donald to win Defensive Player of the Year every year considering the numbers he puts up while being double and triple-teamed all season long.
Finishing off the upper tier is last season's sack leader, TJ Watt at +800. The Pittsburgh stud had 15 sacks last year and it doesn't look like he is going to slow down anytime soon with the way that defense swarms. He also finished the season third in total pressures with 73.
A bunch of big names come in with double-digit odds in the next group. This tier is headlined by Za'Darius Smith (+1200), Joey Bosa (+1400), Von Miller (+1800), Nick Bosa (+1800), and Khalil Mack (+1800).
If you are looking for great value right now, I'd sprinkle money on Mack at that price. Per PFF, he was one of five edge defenders in the NFL to record a pass-rush win rate of 20.0% or higher last season. The new defensive coordinator has vowed to use Mack the way he was utilized under Vic Fangio. He will also get Eddie Goldman and Akiem Hicks back on the defensive line, which should create more one-on-one matchups. During Mack's first season with the Bears, he recorded 12.5 sacks. Mack has kind of been forgotten about this offseason, which is precisely why he'll be motivated to make a big splash this season.
Aside from Mack, another pass rusher I'd look to wager on at these odds is Joey Bosa. He finished 9th in sacks in 2019 with 11.5, and was on his way to another big season last year before being shutdown. Per PFF, Bosa's 23.8% pass-rush win rate last season led all edge defenders, behind only Donald in the league.
Chase Young (+2000), Leonard Floyd (+3500), and Romeo Okwara (+4000) headline the guys with odds of 20-1 or longer in this section.
Young definitely sticks out, just because he has looked unstoppable at times. He finished last season with 7.5 sacks over 15 games. The Washington Football team's defense as a whole is stacked, which should allow Young to get a ton of winnable matchups every game. I don't see anything besides injury stopping him from getting to double-digit sacks this season.
If you are looking for another darkhorse of the bunch, I like Okwara to have a breakout year. He quietly finished last season 10th in the league in sacks with 10. The Detroit Lions are going to be really bad this season, especially on offense. That means the defense will be on the field a ton, which should translate to more snaps and bigger numbers for Okwara. I can see him easily surpassing his output from last season, which is why at 40-1, he's worth the gamble.