NFL Playoffs: 2023 Wild Card Best Bets

Best Bets: Wild Card Playoffs

The NFL Playoffs are here and BetQL has you covered with a full suite of tools including best bets, player prop values, sharp picks, public bets, written analysis and much more. Take a look at the live odds, notable trends and best bets from our model below.

Click on any of the games below or simply scroll down to see the analysis.

Seahawks at 49ers

Chargers at Jaguars

Dolphins at Bills

Giants at Vikings

Ravens at Bengals

Cowboys at Buccaneers

Seahawks at 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers ended the regular season as the hottest team in the NFL. Boasting a 13-4 record, the Niners won 10-straight to close out the year, including the last six with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy under center. Amassing 13 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions, Purdy has been a stellar replacement for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, who threw 16 touchdowns to four interceptions earlier in the year. 

Christian McCaffrey (1,139 rush yards, 8 rushing TD, 741 receiving yards, 5 receiving TD) was a crucial midseason acquisition for a star-studded San Fran offense and the 49ers also have arguably the best defense in the entire NFL. In fact, San Fran’s defense has allowed an NFL-best 16.3 points per game and an NFL-best 300.6 average yards allowed per contest, including just 77.7 rushing yards (2nd-best). The Niners have also successfully forced turnovers while limiting their own, going +13 in turnover differential (best in NFL) in the regular season. Nick Bosa led the league in sacks with 18.5 this year and is the Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner for that, and other, reasons.

Meanwhile, the ascension of Geno Smith (4,282 yards, 30 TD, 11 INT) into a Pro Bowl caliber quarterback has been one of the feel-good storylines in recent memory and the threesome of Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett makes the Seahawks offense pretty dangerous. Seattle might have finished 9-8 and only gotten into the playoffs thanks to the Lions’ win over the Packers on Sunday night, but they had some impressive victories and moments throughout the season.

Our model simulated this game 10,000 times and identified two keys to the game. First, the Seahawks need to get Walker going on the ground. In wins, he averaged a whopping 144 rushing yards and 1.99 rushing touchdowns and in losses, he put up 70 yards and 0.75 touchdowns. (He had 1,050 rush yards and 9 TD in the regular season). Meanwhile, the Niners need to win the turnover battle. In simulations, they won 90% of the time when that happened. 

San Francisco has gone 10-1 SU versus teams with completion percentages of 61% or better this season, so that’s another important trend to note in their favor. The BetQL model has gone a perfect 5-0 SU in Purdy’s starts, 36-22 (62.07%) on 49ers O/U bets for a total return of $1,072 on $100 bets and 13-4 (76.47%) ATS 1H for a profit of $784 on $100 bets in Smith’s starts. Be sure to check out all of our best bets and star ratings above and take advantage of our exclusive BetMGM welcome offer below!

Chargers at Jaguars

This should be a very intriguing quarterback matchup between LA’s Justin Herbert (4,739 yards, 25 TD, 10 INT) and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence (4,113 yards, 25 TD, 8 INT). Recognized as two of the most promising young signal-callers in the game, the Jaguars will be looking to run back their 38-10 Week 3 victory that they earned in Los Angeles. There will also be no shortage of offensive skill players in this one, either. Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (107 rec, 127 targets 722 yards, 5 TD as a receiver) had 17 total touchdowns while Keenan Allen has been dominant when healthy. Both should be relied on even more than usual due to the injury of Mike Williams. Meanwhile, the Jags will rely on Travis Etienne (1,125 rush yards, 5 TD), Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and others. The Chargers had a four-game winning streak snapped by a surprising Week 18 loss to the Broncos while the Jags are riding a five-game winning streak into the playoffs. 

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Keep an eye on Jaguars linebacker Foyesade Oluokun, who led the NFL with 184 tackles, including 128 solo tackles (20 more than anyone else). You might not know his name now, but you will if you tune into this contest.

In our simulations, Etienne’s success was crucial for Jacksonville. If he recorded more than 112 rushing yards with at least one touchdown, the Jags won 68% of the time. Meanwhile, if the Chargers committed less turnovers than the Jaguars, LA won 87% of the time. 

There are also some important trends to note. Doug Peterson has gone 14-4 ATS as a home underdog in his career, so keep that in mind if you’re a spread bettor who enjoys looking at trends. The BetQL model has gone 18-11 (62.07%) ATS in Lawrence’s starts and 23-17 (57.5%) ATS in Herbert’s starts, so be sure to consult our best ATS bet and star rating above! Capitalize on it with our exclusive FanDuel offer below!

Dolphins at Bills

The Dolphins may have finished at 9-8 and needed some help to get into the playoffs, but they’re in and that’s all that matters! Meanwhile, the Bills have been a Super Bowl contender all year long and are poised for a deep run. Buffalo won this exact matchup 32-29 at home back on December 17, but that was with Miami’s starting QB Tua Tagovailoa under center. With Tagovailoa in concussion protocol and Teddy Bridgewater hurt, the Fins may have to turn to rookie Skylar Thompson yet again, this time in a win-or-go-home scenario. That would certainly spell trouble for Miami’s chances to not only win this game, but to keep it remotely close.

This Bills offense has been awesome all year, averaging 28.4 points per game (2nd-best) on 397.6 yards per game (2nd-most) under the leadership of Josh Allen (4,283 yards, 35 pass TD, 14 INT, 762 rushing yards, 7 rush TD). Their defense has also been stellar, allowing just 17.9 points per contest (2nd-best). The Dolphins own a -7 turnover differential (5th-worst in NFL), which is the worst of any playoff team.

There are three big-named receivers that will be taking the field in this one. For Buffalo, Stefon Diggs has caught 108 of 154 targets for 1,429 yards and 11 touchdowns in the regular season. Meanwhile, Miami’s dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle put up crazy numbers during the regular season. Hill racked up 1,710 receiving yards (2nd-best) with seven touchdowns and Waddle put up 1,356 receiving yards (7th-best) with eight touchdowns, but their impact will be dependent on Tagovailoa’s status. Nonetheless, all three of these stars are threats to score anytime they have the ball in their hands.

With Thompson the likely starter, the Dolphins are going to need a big outing from their running backs. Jeff Wilson Jr. in particular popped in our simulations. He averaged 82 rushing yards and 0.87 rushing touchdowns in Dolphins wins and just 32 yards and 0.25 touchdown in losses. The Bills have a 77% chance or focing more turnovers than they commit and if they do, they won 90% of the time in simulations. 

Buffalo is, and should be, a huge home favorite here. Under Sean McDermott, they’ve gone 28-6 SU as a home favorite (42% ROI) and the BetQL model has gone 57.3% across all bets in Josh Allen’s starts. Check out our model’s best bets above and redeem our exclusive DraftKings offer below!

Giants at Vikings

The Vikings may have finished with an elite 13-4 record, but they actually had a negative point differential in the regular season, as did the Giants, who finished 9-7-1. Despite those few ugly losses, the Vikings have gone 12-0 SU as a favorite this year and are the clear favorites against the G-Men, who they beat 27-24 on Christmas Eve. Don’t count this New York team out, though; under first-year head coach Brian Daboll, the Giants have gone 10-2 ATS as an underdog. Therefore, this is expected and projected to be a close contest. 

BetQL has hit 62.82% of Giants bets all-time and has been especially profitable with Daniel Jones (3,205 yards, 15 passing TD, 5 INT, 708 rushing yards, 7 rushing TD) under center: 179-106 (62.81%) for a total return of $2,697. The model has also gone 29-19 (60.42%) on 1H O/U bets when Kirk Cousins has started for a profit of $720 on $100 wagers.

In simulations, Saquon Barkley (1,312 rush, 10 TD, 338 receiving yards, 57 receptions) averaged 126 rushing yards and 1.42 rushing touchdowns in wins and just 62 yards and 0.42 touchdowns in losses. The Vikings had a 61% chance to force more turnovers than they commit and if they had a positive turnover margin, they won 77% of the time.

The Vikings’ offensive line has allowed 86 QB hits (most in the NFL by 14) and 168 pressures (2nd-most allowed) on Kirk Cousins (4,547 yards, 29 TD, 14 INT), who still performed well under the circumstances. Justin Jefferson led the NFL in pretty much every major stat category at the position: 129 receptions, 184 targets and 1,809 receiving yards. Despite an explosive offensive attack that also includes star running back Dalvin Cook (1,173 yards, 8 TD), Minnesota has struggled at times due to their defense, which has been awful. Their 388.7 yards per game allowed ranked 2nd-worst in the NFL and their 25.1 points per game allowed ranked 3rd-worst.  Based on their playoff reputation, it’s going to be tough to put too much trust in the Vikings.

See our model’s best bets above and consider taking advantage of our exclusive Caesars offer below!

Ravens at Bengals

The main storyline heading into this game is the status of Lamar Jackson, who is currently considered questionable. The Ravens won the first meeting between these teams by the score of 19-17 with Jackson and then the Bengals won 27-16 without Jackson in Week 18. Now, this will be a rematch in Cincinnati, but the outcome could be very, very different with the former MVP under center. The Bengals have gone 10-1 ATS against defenses that have allowed their opponents to complete 61% or more of their passes this year, but under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have gone 20-5 SU after a double-digit point loss (73.6% ROI). The BetQL Model has gone 24-12 (66.7%) ATS in Joe Burrow (4,475 yards, 35 TD, 12 INT) starts for a profit of $998 on $100 wagers. 

In simulations, the Bengals won 86% of the time in which they committed fewer turnovers than the Ravens and the key to Baltimore’s success is running back JK Dobbins. He averaged 127 rushing yards per sim. If he rushes for more than that with a touchdown, then Baltimore won 75% of the time. Meanwhile, Burrow averaged 285 passing yards per sim. If he threw for more than that with at least a 2:1 TD:INT ratio, the Bengals won 60% of the time. Therefore, the data suggests that the Ravens lean on Dobbins while the Bengals adopt an aerial attack.

See our model’s best bets above and grab our exclusive BetRivers offer below!

Cowboys at Buccaneers

The Buccaneers opened the regular season with a 19-3 win over the Cowboys in Dallas, but Tom Brady (4,694 yards, 25 TD, 9 INT) and company struggled generating points all year long. This Cowboys offense averaged 27.5 points per game during the regular season while the Buccaneers only put up 18.4.  TB12 suffered his first-ever losing season as an NFL starting quarterback, but since the NFC South was complete trash, they won the division and the right to host a Wild Card game. 

Both coaches have some awesome trends to take note of. Under Mike McCarthy, Dallas has gone 7-1 SU off an upset loss (75% ROI) and Todd Bowles has gone 16-5 ATS 1H as a home underdog. BetQL has gone 39-25 (60.94%) ATS in Buccaneers games for a total return of $1,064 on $100 wagers. 

In addition to an elite running game with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, Dak Prescott (2,860 yards, 23 TD, 15 INT) will need to be efficient in a passing attack that will almost certainly involve CeeDee Lamb (107 catches, 1359 yards, 9 TD). Per our simulation, the Cowboys have a 77% chance of committing more turnovers than they commit and if they do, it helps them win 77% of the time. Getting pressure on Brady might be tough, though. The Bucs have allowed just 22 sacks all year (best in NFL) and his o-line is getting healthier. To that point, Dallas did rank 2nd-best in the NFL in turnover differential (+10) in the regular season and feature All-Pro linebacker Micah Parsons, who will be hunting all game long.

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