BetQL Staff NFL Picks For Raiders-Chiefs MNF

MNF Best Bets

Dan Karpuc: Davante Adams Over 76.5 Receiving Yards
I love a number of player props in this game, but none of them compares to this one. Not only does BetQL list this as one of the most mispriced player props of the week, but the model simulated this game 10,000 times and Adams’ average outcome was 120 receiving yards. That’s a massive difference. So far, Adams has caught just 26 of a whopping 47 targets for 290 yards and three touchdowns. His receptions per game (10, 2, 5, 9) and corresponding yardage outputs (141, 12, 36, 101) have been all over the place, but his targets per contest (17, 7, 10, 13) have been pretty consistent; Carr is going to either get his guy the ball or fail trying. Kansas City has allowed averages of 15.5 receptions (third-most heading into Week 5) on 21.25 targets (10th-most) for 168.75 yards (12th-most) to wide receivers and since the Raiders will almost assuredly be playing with a negative game-script as clear road underdogs, Carr will likely be throwing the ball more than usual. Adams has attracted 34% of his team’s targets and 40% of his team’s air yards, both of which suggest that we should see some positive regression (up to his elite standard) against a K.C. defense that ranks 21st in Pass DVOA. Expect big things from Adams in primetime and I’m going to certainly be getting plus-money on him to get past the century mark as well.

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Brad Pinkerton: Davante Adams Over 0.5 TDs (+127 at Caesars)

This looks like great value for Adams to get into the end zone Monday night (he's as low as -106 on BetRivers). Adams leads the NFL with 13 red-zone targets (three RZ scores) and he hasn't even played his fifth game yet. Plus, the Chiefs have already allowed five receiving TDs to WRs through their first four games. With a total of O/U 52 set for tonight's game, I'm expecting plenty of scoring with Adams contributing a touchdown. To take this one step further, Adams also looks like incredible value at +900 to score tonight's first TD at BetMGM, which runs an awesome weekly "First TD Insurance" promotion where you get your stake back up to $25 if your pick doesn't score the first TD. So, you could make a risk-free bet with great odds at Caesars using the offer below, plus sprinkle a little more risk-free on Adams to score the first TD with BetMGM's insurance promo!

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Lucy Burdge: Chiefs -7 vs. Raiders
The Chiefs are coming off of a win and a covered two-point spread as the underdog against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and I think they can handle covering as favorites against the Raiders on MNF. A trend working in their favor is that Andy Reid is 12-3 ATS coming off a win as a road underdog while coaching Kansas City. And Kansas City is averaging more points scored per game than the Raiders, at 32.3 to the Raiders’ 24.0 points per game, so I think the Chiefs can get a huge win over the Raiders here and cover this spread.

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