Raiders at Chiefs: Week 5 Player Prop Values

The Week 5 edition of Monday Night Football is here, as the Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) welcome the Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) to Arrowhead Stadium. In addition to BetQL’s best bets, sharp picks, public data and up-to-the-minute, dynamic projections, our model identifies the player prop values that you need to take advantage of for every game. 

We simulated this game 10,000 times to identify these player prop projections and then compared our own lines with those at our sportsbook partners (the bigger the discrepancy, the bigger the value). Scroll down to see two of the top options for Monday night’s contest.

Davante Adams Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110, BetMGM)

BetQL Projection: 7 Receptions, 120 Yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A new era of Raiders football began when they traded for Davante Adams in the offseason. Reuniting arguably the best wideout in football with his college teammate Derek Carr, the Las Vegas offense was expected to take a step forward, especially with former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels taking over as the head coach. Not only was Adams going to be Carr’s top target, but Darren Waller and Hunter Renfroe were both productive pass-catchers last year. Fast forward to now and it’s been a very confusing start for both Adams and Vegas, losers of three of their first four games.

So far, Adams has caught just 26 of a whopping 47 targets for 290 yards and three touchdowns. His receptions per game (10, 2, 5, 9) and corresponding yardage outputs (141, 12, 36, 101) have pretty much been all over the place, but his targets per contest (17, 7, 10, 13) have been pretty consistent; Carr is going to either get his guy the ball or fail trying. Coming off of a solid performance in which he caught nine passes on 13 targets for 101 yards in a 32-23 win over the Broncos, BetQL is projecting Adams to soar over his 76.5-yard total and finish with 120 yards on seven catches against the Chiefs on Monday night. 

Kansas City has allowed averages of 15.5 receptions (3rd-most heading into Week 5) on 21.25 targets (10th-most) for 168.75 yards (12th-most) to wide receivers and since the Raiders will almost assuredly be playing with a negative game-script as clear road underdogs, Carr will likely be throwing the ball more than usual. Adams has attracted 34% of his team’s targets and 40% of his team’s air yards, both of which suggest that we should see some positive regression (up to his elite standard) against a KC defense that ranks 21st in Pass DVOA. Expect big things from Adams in primetime.

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Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 10.5 Rushes (-144, FanDuel)

BetQL Projection: 15 Rushes, 55 Yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Who is Kansas City’s RB1: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jerick McKinnon or rookie Isiah Pacheco? Heading into the season, we didn’t have a clear answer to that question, as there were reasons to support all three. In Week 1, CEH and McKinnon both got 39% of the snaps while Pacheco got 23%. McKinnon led with 47% and then 52% in Weeks 2 and three, beating out CEH’s 44% and 40% while Pacheco essentially faded into the distance. However, last week, it seemed like Andy Reid and his staff finally made a decision, giving Edwards-Helaire 56% of the snaps at the position, compared to 23% for McKinnon and 21% to Pacheco. (By the way, fullback Michael Burton has mixed in, which is why all of those weeks didn’t equal 100%.)

Against Tampa Bay’s stout run defense, Edwards-Helaire took 19 carries for 92 yards with a touchdown and helped preserve a Kansas City lead from start to finish in Week 4. Assuming that Kansas City gets out to an early lead in this one as the odds suggest, a similar game script and approach could be in play this week. McKinnon is more of a pass-catching back (had two carries for -1 yard last week) and Pacheco is Edwards-Helaire’s main competition to get carries at the moment. As a rookie, he also undoubtedly has a short leash. 

Keep in mind that this 10.5-carry prop is all the way up to 12.5 at DraftKings, which is quite a difference to be aware of. After Kansas City scored 41 points against an elite defense last week by riding his hot hand, the model projects the Chiefs to lean on CEH again in this contest, giving him 15 carries en route to a win.

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