New Data Suggests This Could Be The Lions' Year

BetQL Simulations

The 2024 NFL season is almost here, as we are just a week away from the Hall of Fame game between the Texans and Bears. As such, we have been hard at work here working through our model simulations and personal best bets for the upcoming season, and something stuck out to us immediately when we got the data back. The BetQL model simulates the NFL season 10,000 times and then gives us the most likely outcome based on those simulations.

Lions fans have suffered for years and years, being the bottom-feeders of the NFL for decades is a hard burden to put on anyone. However, even the most poorly run franchises are due to have a renaissance every now and then. Detroit made it to the NFC Championship last season before falling short to the San Francisco 49ers. Now, expectations will be higher than maybe ever before in the history of the franchise.

We are giving the Lions an 81% chance to make the playoffs next season, which implies a fair price of -426. You can bet them as low as -245 right now to make the playoffs, as books are giving them about a 71% chance to make the playoffs. That's 10% of value on that line, so we are all over that.

We are also seeing a ton of value in their chances to win the NFC North division next season. We are giving them about a 60% chance to win the division, which would command a fair price of -150 in the market. At most books, you can get +150 right now for them to win the division, which would imply a 40% chance. So we are getting even more value here, a 20% difference from the market and our simulations.

Super Bowl Futures Odds

When it comes to Super Bowl futures, our model is a bit more pessimistic than the market. We are giving the Lions a 4% chance to win the Super Bowl, which would imply a fair price of +2400. They are +1200 in the market right now, which would imply a 8% chance. Maybe wait to bet them to win the Super Bowl, but we still think they are going to have a fantastic season, and this very well could be the year that they win it all, at long last.