This Stat Suggests Christian McCaffrey Could Lead NFL In Rushing Yards (Again)

Over his last two seasons with the San Francisco 49ers, running back Christian McCaffrey has solidified his status as the best running back in the NFL.

He's coming off an MVP-caliber season in which he rushed for a career-high 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns. He also added 564 yards through the air with seven receiving touchdowns and finished the year with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns, earning AP Offensive Player of the Year. Those stats are impressive, but his advanced stats tell an even more dominant story.

According to NextGen Stats, McCaffery led all players with an impressive +349 Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) in 2023-24 and has accumulated a total RYOE of +397 since 2022.

That tops marks from Cleveland's Nick Chubb (+342), Miami's Devon Achane (+279), New York Jets' Breece Hall (+253) and Arizona's James Connor (+214) since 2022.

McCaffrey's ability to consistently outperform expectations is what sets him apart from his peers. His versatility is unmatched, combining elite rushing skills with exceptional receiving capabilities, making him a dual-threat weapon and a cornerstone for the San Francisco 49ers' offense. McCaffrey's dominance is not just in numbers but also in his ability to influence games, making him the premier running back in the league.

After such an impressive season, it's no surprise to find McCaffrey at the top of the odds board for several season-long player specials. At DraftKings, the Niners running back has the shortest odds to lead the league in rushing yards (+275), rushing touchdowns (+600) and most rushing + receiving touchdowns (+275).

I couldn't talk anyone off of betting him to win each of those categories, there just isn't a ton of value in those prices relative to other players on the board. Plus, no player has led the league in rushing yards in back-to-back seasons since Barry Sanders did from 1994 to 1997.

Still, the Niners just re-signed McCaffrey to a two-year, $38 million extension and no team is paying a running back that type of money unless they plan to heavily utilize him.

If you're interested in betting on McCaffrey this season, the question you have to ask yourself is how you determine value. Some might say backing the best running back in the league at +275 has value being it carries an implied probability of 26.67%. Plus, assuming he posts similar RYOE numbers this season that probability is likely a little short.

Value to someone else might be taking a flyer on a player further down the board like Atlanta's Bijan Robinson, whom I personally really like. He's sitting at +1200 with an implied probability of 7.69% to lead the NFL in rushing.

Despite believing McCaffrey is the better player, I'd rather take someone with longer odds in hopes of cashing a bigger payout. Either way, determining what value looks like to you is the first step in identifying whether or not to back McCaffrey in the futures market.