Fading The Public
Betting with the majority doesn't work on a long-term basis
What Public Data Is
Public data tells you which side the general public is betting on. It measures the number of bet slips on both sides of a wager.In the example above (from BetQL's web platform), 68% of total bet slips (at any dollar amount) were wagered on the Mavericks (-6.5) and 32% were wagered on the Bulls. Get a full breakdown of what public betting data is and how to use it on BetQL.
Betting With The Public
Betting with the public is not a viable long-term strategy.
There’s no doubt that betting with the public can lead to short-term success. However, it’s not a winning strategy over weeks, months or years. Remember, sportsbooks are profitable for a reason and understand that the public leans towards favorites, leans towards overs and reacts to breaking news in today’s social media age. You know those lines that look too good to be true? They probably are. If it was as simple as betting with the majority, we’d see a lot of millionaires cashing all over the sports betting world.
Betting Against The Public
Since most sports gamblers lose, betting against the masses seems like it may be a profitable strategy, but it shouldn’t be employed on every single wager, but rather in pick-and-choose situations. After all, oddsmakers are pretty impressively accurate across the industry.
While fans of a particular team tend to bet on their squad with built-in bias, in today’s day and age, there are so many resources available (including our tools here at BetQL). Bettors have never been smarter or more informed. So, fading the public in every opportunity isn’t logical, at least anymore. Further, casual bettors usually bet on the favorite since they have the best chance of winning the game. But, oddsmakers give underdogs more appealing odds to make them more attractive. But, betting underdogs the majority of the time isn’t a proven long-term moneymaker, which is what we’re after. With so many ways that bettors can educate themselves nowadays, it’s important to give the public the respect it deserves without establishing a universal fade strategy.
When To Fade The Public
Betting against the public is a commonly deployed strategy because novice bettors tend to overreact to news like injuries or suspensions. When do you fade the public? When 70% of public bets are wagered on one side of an outcome, betting on the other side is a proven long-term winning strategy. For example:
The Lakers are playing host to the Clippers and are listed as 5-point favorites. Kawhi Leonard gets ruled out and public bettors react. Heavy action results and 75% of public tickets back the Lakers, who are now 10-point favorites since the line got driven up. The overreaction by the public as a result of the lineup change inflated the line, thus making the Clippers a more valuable bet.
Sport-Specific Public Betting Tutorials
For sport-by-sport public betting advice, click on the links below:
Want to learn more about BetQL? Check out the resources below:
- Best Bets: Find out how our model’s star ratings can help you make the most informed spread, moneyline and O/U bets.
- Public Data: Find out why it’s always important to know what bets are popular.
- Sharp Data: Find out why knowing who pro bettors are backing is important.
- Web Tutorial: Find out how to use our platform on a web browser.
- Mobile App Tutorial: Find out how to use our mobile app.