CFP 2025 First Round Preview and Predictions

The First Round of the CFP is here, and it's not without its share of controversy. Duke winning the ACC as an unranked team threw the whole bracket into chaos, Oklahoma losing in the SEC title game and it not impacting their ranking left many people scratching their heads, and the biggest "shock" was Notre Dame being demoted in favor of Miami for the final at-large spot.

This year's round one now features a regular season rematch between two SEC powerhouses, a rematch between the Sun Belt Champion and Ole Miss along with the American Conference Champion for the first time ever. It also has some of the biggest opening line spreads in recent memory. Let's get into it.

If you're Oregon, are you even mad that you missed out on the Big 10 Championship? I mean I understand bragging rights and wanting to prove you're the best, but by not playing, you're a 21 point favorite. And you get an extra home game and you'll still most likely be playing on New Year's Day in Miami. That's not to say that the Ducks should look past James Madison and put all their focus on Texas Tech, but with the exception of the Tulane vs. Ole Miss game, this is the biggest miss-match we've seen since last year's Penn State vs. SMU first round game.

James Madison didn't play a single game against a ranked team this season, which could be a reason why they finished the season with a "top-10" PPG and PAG average, along with the 6th best rushing yards per game average in college football. Oregon on the other hand played 4 top 25 ranked teams, only losing to Indiana and they still finished the season in the top 10 in PPG and PAG, playing against Big 10 opponents. Oregon had a bye in the first round last season before being knocked out in the Rose Bowl by eventual National Champions Ohio State.

We have the Ducks at 17 point favorites, with a projected final score of 32-15. The moneyline isn't really appealing for this game, but both the spread and the over/under are currently offering good lines for a high potential payout. Our tip, consider taking the under 50.5 currently at -110 on DraftKings Sportsbook

Let's get into the other elephant in the room, Tulane vs. Ole Miss. These teams already faced off in week four of this season with Ole Miss winning 45-10 at home. Despite this earlier result, Tulane opened at just a 17.5 point underdog. I'm not discounting what the Green Wave can do on the field, they beat the ACC champion Duke, they took down Army and Northwestern, but the fact still remains that they've already lost to Ole Miss this season. Yes, I realise Georgia beat Alabama in the SEC title game after losing to them in the regular season, but those are top-10 teams in the same conference, not the American Conference Champion and an SEC Cornerstone.

Let's just break it down by the numbers. Tulane is scoring just under 30 points per game while allowing 22.6 points per game on average. Ole Miss is scoring 37.3 PPG while allowing just 20.1 in the power 4. Tulane's biggest win of the season was against #24 ranked North Texas. Ole Miss beat #4 ranked LSU, #13 Ranked Oklahoma and it's only loss of the season came on the road at Georgia. The Rebels have nearly 500 yards of total offense per game. Tulane averages just over 400 total yards per game. Last but not least, OLE MISS ALREADY BEAT TULANE THIS SEASON 45-10!!!

We've got Ole Miss as 15 point favorites with a projected final score of 34.5-19.5. While the moneyline odds still aren't great they're better than the JMU vs. Oregon game. We say Tulane improve throughout the season so we like them +17.5 currently on FanDuel Sportsbook at -110. The over/under at 56.5 is also interesting, and is something we'll watch to see if the line moves in the coming days.

If you're the Aggies are you happy or sad that you're playing Miami instead of Notre Dame in the first round? I mean you've been sitting on the sidelines since the loss to Texas knowing that you weren't going to improve in the bracket, so you were pretty much guaranteed to play the last at-large bid, which until this last change was Notre Dame. Now you've got the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes coming to town instead of the team you beat on the road in week three. As for Miami, they can thank Duke for winning the ACC Championship, because without that, the selection committee probably wouldn't have bumped them up over Notre Dame, despite having beat them earlier this season. A CFP without a single team from one of the Power 4 conferences was too much for the committee and no we have Notre Dame saying they wont play in any Bowl Games this year.

Enough about that, let's crunch the numbers. Miami went 10-2 this season, with 4 wins over top-25 teams, but notable losses to Louisville and SMU. The Hurricanes averaged 34.1 PPG while allowing just 13.8 PPG, 6th best in all of college football. As for the Aggies, three wins over top-25 teams propelled them to an 11-1 season, with their only loss coming in the last week of the regular season against Texas 27-17. The Aggies are averaging 36.3 PPG while allowing 21.9 PPG to finish tied for 1st in the SEC. Both teams picked up wins this season over Notre Dame, and the Hurricanes opened as 4 point underdogs when the game was announced.

We've got this one as a coin flip. The Hurricanes are motivated to prove that their inclusion isn't a mistake, and a win over A&M on the road could help silence many of the critics. Right now, we've got the projected final score as 24.5-24.5. Miami +4 looks appealing as does the over/under at 51.5. Fanatics Sportsbook has some of the best lines we've seen for these two bets.

At 10-2, finishing 5th in the SEC, Oklahoma beat Alabama just a few weeks ago 23-21. Despite the win against the then #4 ranked team in the nation, it wasn't enough for them to make the SEC title game and they now have a rematch against a very tough opponent. Alabama is coming off a loss in the SEC title game, getting trounced 28-7. It shouldn't be a surprise that the Sooners are a 1.5 point favorite, but that wasn't how they opened. When the game was officially announced, Alabama was a 1.5 point favorite, but the line quickly flipped to put them as a 1.5 point underdog, with the over/under line also falling to 40.5.

The Crimson Tide are 10-3 on the season with losses to Florida State, Oklahoma and Georgia. They have four wins over top-25 ranked teams while scoring 31.2 PPG on average while allowing just 17.4 PPG on average. As for the Sooners, as I mentioned they went 10-2 with five wins over top 25 teams, losing to Texas and Ole Miss. Oklahoma averaged 26.4 PPG while allowing 13.9 PPG, 7th best in college football. Both teams' defenses are some of the best in college football, which is a clear sign why the total points line for this game is 10 points less than any other game in the first round.

We have the Sooners as 3.5 point favorites with a projected final score of 21.5-18. A projected low-scoring game like this one makes us like the Sooners even more. The moneyline and the spread are both favorable for bettors looking for a big payday with Oklahoma. BetMGM has great odds for both these bets.