Penn State vs. Ohio State: Week 8 Best Bets

Penn State vs. Ohio State: Week 8 Betting Preview

Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State are the only undefeated teams left in the Big Ten. With the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes meeting in Columbus this weekend, one team will be handed its first loss of the season. A win for Penn State would be massive, not only for its hopes of making it to the College Football Playoff, but it would be its first win at The Shoe since 2011. Ohio State has dominated this series, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings overall.

The look-ahead line for this game was Ohio State -10.5 back in August before the season started. It then opened at -6 after Week 7 and was quickly bet down to where it sits now at Buckeyes -4.5. The total is currently at 47.5.

These two teams are very similar in a number of different categories, which makes this a difficult game to handicap. But there are a few reasons that I lean more heavily to one side. Scroll down to see how I expect this game to play out and who I think will cover the spread.

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Nittany Lions Look Legit

Penn State has been dominant this season with a perfect 6-0 record straight up and against the spread. The Nittany Lions have outscored their last three opponents 135-13, including two shutout games. That's an insane stat! Their defense has only given up 48 total points all season and has held teams under two touchdowns in five of their six games.

All that said, there is a big question mark on Penn State heading into this weekend's game because of the caliber of opponents it has faced. Outside of Iowa, it hasn't played a team that is even remotely close to being ranked. The Nittany Lions' 63-0 win last weekend looks wildly impressive until you find out they played UMass who is one of the worst FBS teams in the country. Playing Ohio State is going to be a complete 180 from what Penn State has seen thus far and will really give us a glimpse into just how good James Franklin's team is.

As someone who has been high on the Nittany Lions all season, I think they are fully capable of covering +4.5. Penn State's defensive front is averaging 4.5 sacks per game, which is the best mark in the country, so while Ohio State's offensive line has improved each week, I would still give the edge to the Nittany Lions. Their scoring defense ranks second in the country, one spot behind Michigan and one spot ahead of Ohio State. Their run defense is also No. 2, holding opponents to just 67.4 yards on the ground per game.

Offensively, Penn State's running back duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen make up one of the best backfields in the nation. The Nittany Lions put up 250 yards on the ground last weekend and are averaging 181.8 on the year. Sophomore quarterback Drew Allar has shown quite a bit of upside already with 12 touchdowns to zero interceptions.

Penn State has the talent level to compete with the top teams in the country and hanging with Ohio State will certainly prove that.

Buckeyes Are Banged Up

The success of Ohio State will come down to how healthy it is on Saturday. On Saturday against Purdue, the Buckeyes were without wide receiver Emeka Egbuka and running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams. All three players were ruled out before the start of the game, but they were joined on the sidelines by RB Chip Trayanum and cornerback Denzel Burke. Despite missing some of its top players, the Buckeyes didn't miss a beat in their win over the Boilermakers. However, Penn State is a different animal and Ohio State won't have the same success without them. As of Monday afternoon, it's unclear which players will be able to make it back on the field this weekend, so you should continue to monitor injury reports before placing your bet.

Quarterback Kyle McCord has improved throughout the first half of the season, but he's still a bit unproven. The Buckeyes' matchup with Notre Dame is probably the closest comparison to the level of talent they face with Penn State and McCord was great in that game. Despite only completing 56.8 percent of his passes for 240 yards, he managed the game well and didn't turn the ball over. That said, his job is going to get even more difficult if the Buckeyes' top backs aren't able to play. While backup RB Dallan Hayden ran for 76 yards and a touchdown after coming into the game midway through for the injured Trayanum, it's going to be hard for him to repeat that performance against the top run defense in the conference. That's going to put a lot of pressure on the passing game and make the Buckeyes more one-dimensional than they'd like.

Penn State vs. Ohio State Best Bet

Penn State +4.5 (-110, BetMGM)

It's hard to back the Nittany Lions on the moneyline knowing their history in Columbus and the fact that they're just 1-8 against the Buckeyes under James Franklin. However, I'll take them to cover the spread. The injury concerns for Ohio State are real and if any of the aforementioned players aren't able to go, that's going to give Penn State a massive advantage.

I also recognize that Penn State has played an extremely soft schedule thus far, but this is arguably the most talented team that Franklin has ever had. It has the advantage in the trenches, including a defense that should be able to limit McCord, and the speed and scoring ability to keep up with the Buckeyes on the scoreboard. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the year that the Nittany Lions finally snap their losing streak.