Michigan vs. Penn State: Best Bets For Week 11 Clash

Michigan vs. Penn State: Best Bets For Week 11 Clash

We're already getting close to the end of the college football season, but don't fret, as there is still plenty of money to be won. It's the money-making season here at BetQL, and we are going to continue to crush it. This week features several marquee matchups, and one of those is Michigan at Penn State. BetQL has you covered for everything college football, so let's dive right into this contest.

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Michigan at Penn State: Live Week 11 Odds

Michigan Wolverines Week 11 Outlook

This will be one of the only games all season where Michigan will face a team that even comes close to their talent level. They are undefeated at 9-0, but just 4-4-1 ATS so far, and have faced teams that really had no shot against them. Oh, and apparently they have been cheating. There is that. It will be interesting to see how they handle facing a team that can challenge them on the road in an environment that they have not experienced this season. Still, they have the numbers that you would expect out of an undefeated top 5 ranked squad in the country.

On offense, they have been totally dominant against every defense they have faced so far. The Wolverines are led by QB J.J. McCarthy, who led his team to the penultimate game last season before losing to TCU. Perhaps their biggest strength of all on this side of the ball has been their ability to keep drives going on third down. Michigan ranks second in the nation in third down conversion percentage on offense, converting 55.6% of attempts. That is one of the most important stats you can have as an offense, and they have excelled at it. Again, their competition level has been very low, so we'll see how this holds up against another ranked team.

Defensively, they have been even better. The Wolverines rank first in the FBS in several categories, including red zone efficiency, first downs allowed per game, and passing yards against per game. When opponents get in the red zone against them, which hasn't been often, they are allowing an insanely low 45.5% of those drives to result in points. They also are allowing just 11.3 first downs per game to their opponents, which is basically one full drive per game if you can believe that. Lastly, they have allowed the least amount of passing yards per game at just 141.3, a true no-fly zone.

Penn State Nittany Lions Week 11 Outlook

For some unfortunate reason, the Nittany Lions cannot win the big games. This has been the case for a long time, even before James Franklin, so the blame can't fall squarely on his shoulders. However, he also hasn't been able to reverse that trend either, so he needs to start winning these games if he wants to keep his job. He failed to defeat an Ohio State team that is significantly worse this season than in previous years, and now they will get their chance at redemption by defeating a highly-ranked Michigan team that will be playing their first real competition.

Offensively, they have been pretty good, as you would expect from an 8-1 team. Of course, they didn't look like it when they played a ranked Buckeyes team, but against everyone else, they have been unstoppable. They beat Maryland 52-15 last week and looked amazing doing so. Penn State has been particularly effective this season in the red zone, where they rank sixth in the country in red zone efficiency. They are scoring on 93.8% of all of their red zone drives, and now have to face the best red zone defense in the country in the Wolverines. Something's gotta give.

On defense, this is where the Nittany Lions have their best chance at pulling off an upset. They have one of the very best units in the nation, ranked No. 1 in the FBS in yards allowed per play at just 3.7. That's an unreal number that they will have to lean on to defeat this Michigan team.

Michigan at Penn State Best Bet

My Pick: Penn State +4.5

It's tough to back James Franklin in a big game, but Michigan hasn't been tested this season at all. This will be the first game that they do get tested, and it will be on the road in one of the most difficult places to play in the country. I'll take the points.