No. 17 Iowa vs. No. 21 Tennessee: 2023 Citrus Bowl Best Bets

No. 17 Iowa vs. No. 21 Tennessee: 2023 Citrus Bowl Best Bets

It's bowl season in college football, and we are primed and ready for a great assortment of New Year's 6 games, including the Citrus Bowl. This season, we will have Iowa taking on Tennessee in what should be an interesting matchup.

The Tennessee Volunteers are -7.5 favorites over the Iowa Hawkeyes in the 2023 Citrus Bowl, which will be broadcast on ABC at 1 p.m. ET at Camping World Stadium in Orlando.

BetQL has you covered for everything college football, so let's dive right into this contest!

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Iowa vs. Tennessee: Live Odds

Iowa Hawkeyes Outlook

What a performance by the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten championship game, putting up an insane total of zero points in 60 minutes of football. It was a new low for an offense that was the worst in the FBS in 2023 and has been one of the worst in the country for years now. Michigan completely shut them down, allowing Iowa just seven first downs the entire game in a 26-0 blowout victory.

As mentioned, this is going to be hard to describe how terrible the offense is for this team. However, I'm going to do my best. Iowa ranks 133rd in the nation in yards per play, making them the least explosive offense in the country. They are also dead-last in first downs gained per game, averaging just 13 of them, which makes the seven they got against Michigan even worse. They are 130th in passing, averaging 123.2 yards through the air per game. Do I have to keep going to make this point? They are just awful and painful to watch on offense.

What makes this sad is that they are one of the best defenses in the country. The only reason this team is 10-3 is because their defense has carried the carcass of the offense all season long. Iowa ranks second in the nation in yards per play on defense, allowing very few explosive plays to their opponents. Michigan is the No. 1 team in the country, and the Hawkeye defense held them to just 12 first downs, below the average of even Iowa's offense.

Tennessee Volunteers Outlook

The Vols ended their regular season with a 48-24 victory over lowly Vanderbilt but failed to cover the spread of -27 in that game. Tennessee has had a problem covering spreads this season, with just a 5-6 ATS record on the year. They have beaten up the inferior competition they have faced but struggled against their ranked opponents. Against their last ranked opponent, Georgia, they got whipped 38-10 at home as nine-point dogs.

Offensively, Tennessee has been one of the more explosive offenses in the nation, ranking 16th in yards per play on offense. QB Joe Milton has struggled at times in his first year at the helm of this squad, but he hasn't needed to be amazing with the rushing attack that they own. The Vols rank 13th in the country in rushing yards per game, averaging a huge 202.6 yards on the ground. Star RB Jaylen Wright ran for 1,013 yards on 137 carries, which is an insane 7.4 yards per carry.

The defense has been the weaker unit of this team, but since they are taking on the Iowa offense, they might look like the '85 Bears in this game. Tennessee is ranked 28th in yards per play allowed on defense, which isn't the worst number, but not elite either. Where the defense has excelled in 2023 is its ability to generate pressure on opposing QBs, ranking 11th in the country in sacks per game (3.0).

Iowa vs. Tennessee Best Bet

My Pick: Lean Under 36.5 (-112, DraftKings)

If Iowa is playing in a game, I'm not sure how low you would have to make the total for me to bet the over. Their offense is disgusting to watch, and their defense will be the best unit on the field in this game.