No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 5 Florida State: 2023 Orange Bowl Best Bets

No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 5 Florida State: 2023 Orange Bowl Best Bets

The Orange Bowl features two teams that aren't exactly thrilled to be playing in this game. Georgia and FSU both felt like they deserved a spot in the CFP, with the Seminoles extra upset after going 13-0 and still getting left out. As it is with most bowl games, motivation is going to be a huge factor in this game.

The Bulldogs are -14 favorites over the Seminoles with the total sitting at 45.5. The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 4 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

BetQL has you covered for everything college football, so let's dive right into this contest.

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Georgia vs. Florida State: Live Odds

Georgia Bulldogs Outlook

The Bulldogs are coming off a loss to Alabama in the SEC championship game, snapping their 29-game win streak. Because of the fact that Texas beat Alabama earlier this year and Alabama was Georgia's only loss, Kirby Smart's squad dropped to No. 6 in the final CFP rankings. They'll now face an undefeated Florida State team that is feeling even more slighted after winning the ACC championship.

The transfer portal has been busy since it opened on Monday, but so far it has not claimed any of Georgia's top players. My concern for the Bulldogs is if some of those players decide to opt out of this game. So far, their touchdown leader, RB Kendall Milton, has confirmed he'll play in the Orange Bowl, but I wouldn't be shocked to see QB Carson Beck, TE Brock Bowers or WR Ladd McConkey sit.

Defensively, the Bulldogs have the edge in this game. With Tate Rodemaker starting under center for FSU, I don't see how the Seminoles muster up any sort of a passing game. However, on the other side of the ball is where Georgia could struggle.

If it wants to win this game, or at least cover -14, Georgia's offensive line is going to have to play extremely well because FSU has a defensive line that's dominated the trenches and ranks third in the nation with 45 sacks on the year. You could argue that with Georgia's offense being No. 8 in the nation in total yards per game (476.5) and No. 9 in points per game (37.6), that it'll be just fine on that side of the ball. I couldn't exactly disagree with you, but it's also important to note that the Bulldogs haven't faced this good of a defense all season. And, if Beck, Bowers, or any of their other top offensive options opt out, we could see the Bulldogs struggle in a way it hasn't in years.

Florida State Seminoles Outlook

The Seminoles are furious for being left out of the CFP and I don't blame them. FSU went 13-0 on the season, won its conference championship game and beat two Power 5 teams on the road. Its resume is worthy of punching a ticket to the playoffs. However, without QB Jordan Travis, the CFP committee felt like the Seminoles weren't one of the best four teams in the country.

At this point, there isn't anything FSU can do to change their situation. All they can do is try and beat Georgia in hopes of further proving they belong in the playoff. As I mentioned above, motivation is extremely important to take into account when handicapping these games. The only problem is, how do you measure it? I would imagine Mike Norvell's team is going to come into this one fired up and ready to make a statement, but if they get down early and things aren't going their way, will they fold? It's a question that should be asked of both teams.

So far, WR Johnny Wilson is the only notable opt-out for FSU. As its second-leading receiver, he will certainly be missed, especially considering Rodemaker has struggled to move the ball. The Seminoles offense is going to rely heavily on RB Trey Sermon, Lawrence Toafili and the ground game. They just put up 164 yards on the ground against Louisville, which has a better run defense than Georgia. The only concern there is that FSU then becomes one-dimensional and the Bulldogs defense will be able to scheme against that.

Plus, as with Georgia, Benson, WR Keon Coleman, TE Jaheim Bell and DL Jared Verse are all players who could potentially opt out of this game. If that happens, this offense becomes extremely anemic and the defense would take a hit as well without Verse.

Georgia vs. FSU Best Bet

My Pick: Lean FSU +14 (-105, FanDuel)

Betting on this game comes down to which team you think cares more. Does Georgia after suffering its first loss in nearly three years and missing out on an opportunity for a potential three-peat? Or does FSU after doing everything it needed to but still being passed up thanks to one injury? My guess is getting a win and proving the committee wrong means more to the Seminoles.

Florida State has the defense to slow down the Bulldogs on the ground and through the air enough to keep this game close. It doesn't exactly have the offense to match Georgia with Rodemaker at QB, but 14 points is a lot to be laying against the amount of talent FSU has on its roster.

I would wait to bet this game until we get closer to kickoff and have a better idea of which players are opting out. As long as FSU's top position players are in, I would back the Seminoles on the spread.