College Football Betting Guide: Odds, Trends & Picks For Dec. 16-17 Bowl Games
BetQL highlights key betting trends for the upcoming college football bowl games
Bryan Zarpentine - Dec 16, 2022, 2:07pm ESTCollege Football Betting Lines, Odds & Picks For Dec. 16-17 Bowl Games
College football bowl season is here, and BetQL is your source for NCAAF best bets, live college football public bets, live NCAAF sharp data, college football line movement and historical betting trends in addition to our NCAAF articles that cover the sport from top to bottom. Scroll down to see all the best bets and key betting trends for the upcoming bowl game matchups.
One trend to note is that the BetQL college football model finished the regular season strong, going 63-35 (65%) on all picks rated ⭐⭐⭐⭐ and higher in the last 30 days for a total return of $1,625 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game.
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Bahamas Bowl: Miami (OH) vs. UAB
ATS Record: Miami 5-8, UAB 4-8
O/U Record: Miami 3-9, UAB 6-6
Both of these teams probably wanted more out of their season, although they hit the jackpot by getting invited to the Bahamas Bowl, which will serve as their first-ever meeting against one another. With UAB coach Bill Clark abruptly retiring over the summer, it’s understandable for the Blazers to have a rough season under an interim coach. However, UAB had a promising start to the season, only to go 2-4 SU and 1-6 ATS down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Redhawks won three of their final four games just to become bowl-eligible. It’s also worth noting that Miami was just 3-9 O/U this season, including a 2-6 O/U record in conference play, as their offense sputtered at times, explaining why they are considerable underdogs in this game.
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Cure Bowl: No. 25 UTSA vs. No. 24 Troy
ATS Record: UTSA 7-6, Troy 10-3
O/U Record: UTSA 8-5, Troy 6-7
Don’t sleep on the Cure Bowl because these are both Top 25 teams and conference champions. The Roadrunners lost to Houston and Texas early in the season but proceeded to rattle off 10 straight wins. They also went 4-1 ATS down the stretch, winning three of their last four games by at least 21 points. Of course, the Trojans were equally impressive. Troy’s Sun Belt title game win over Coastal Carolina was the team’s eighth in a row. The Trojans also boast one of the best defenses in the country, keeping nine of their 13 opponents below 20 points.
On the other side, the Roadrunners ranked 11th nationally with 38.7 points per game with Texas being the only team to keep UTSA under 30 points this year.
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Fenway Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Louisville
ATS Record: Cincinnati 3-8-1, Louisville 7-5
O/U Record: Cincinnati 6-6, Louisville 4-8
Located roughly 100 miles apart, Cincinnati and Louisville are set to meet for the first time since 2013 before Louisville left for the ACC. The battle for the Keg of Nails trophy has long been one of the most overlooked rivalries in college football, especially with the last two games in this rivalry going to overtime. The rivalry’s renewal in the Fenway Bowl has an extra wrinkle with Louisville coach Scott Satterfield leaving the Cards before the bowl game to become the coach at Cincinnati.
The rivalry aside, the Bearcats were unbelievably atrocious ATS this year, going 1-7 ATS over their final eight games. Cincy also had just three wins this year against bowl teams, two of those wins coming by exactly two points. As for the Cardinals, they will surely feel like they have a point to prove to their former coach. Louisville also went 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS in games with a spread of four points or less this season.
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Las Vegas Bowl: Florida vs. No. 14 Oregon State
ATS Record: Florida 7-5, Oregon State 10-2
O/U Record: Florida 7-5, Oregon State 7-5
When Florida opened the season with an upset win over eventual Pac-12 champion Utah, few would have predicted that the Gators would only finish 6-6. But that’s what happened when Florida went 2-4 SU during the second half of the season. It wasn’t a great first impression for Billy Napier during his first year in Gainesville. However, being an underdog in their bowl game might suit the Gators, who were 2-3 SU but 5-0 ATS as underdogs in 2022.
As for the Beavers, they were one of the biggest surprises in the country this season. They were also one of the best ATS teams nationally. The Beavers won six of their final seven games of the season while also winning six in a row ATS to close out the season, including an upset of rival Oregon in their regular-season finale.
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L.A. Bowl: Fresno State vs. Washington State
ATS Record: Fresno State 6-7, Washington State 8-4
O/U Record: Fresno State 7-6, Washington State 3-9
After beating Boise State in the Mountain West Championship Game, Fresno State’s reward is the chance to take down a power-conference opponent. The Bulldogs lost two games against Pac-12 teams early in the season, although they only lost to Oregon State by three, 35-32, albeit as a slim favorite. More importantly, Fresno State heads into bowl season on an eight-game winning streak, allowing 16 points or fewer in six of those eight games and going 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Of course, the Cougars also went 4-1 ATS over their last five games. But it’s also worth mentioning that Wazzou’s only win this season against a team going to a bowl game came in September against Wisconsin.
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LendingTree Bowl: Rice vs. Southern Miss
ATS Record: Rice 7-5, Southern Miss 9-3
O/U Record: Rice 8-4, Southern Miss 7-5
Despite finishing with a 5-7 record, Rice’s strong academic record is putting the Owls in a bowl game for the first time since 2014. They will meet a familiar opponent in Southern Miss, which moved from Conference USA to the Sun Belt in 2022. That will make this the 10th meeting between the Owls and the Golden Eagles since 2011 with Rice beating Southern Miss in each of the last two seasons.
The Owls head to the LendingTree Bowl on the heels of a three-game losing streak while also going 2-4 ATS in their last six games. On the bright side, they were 5-2 ATS as underdogs this season despite going 1-6 SU in those games. As for the Golden Eagles, they went 5-1 ATS during the second half of the season and went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS as a favorite this year.
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New Mexico Bowl: BYU vs. SMU
ATS Record: BYU 4-8, SMU 5-7
O/U Record: BYU 8-4, SMU 5-7
Neither of these teams lived up to expectations this season, although both teams should be recognized among the best outside of the power conferences. Of SMU’s five losses, three came by eight points or fewer, including losses to Maryland, TCU and Cincinnati. The Mustangs also won four of their last five games to finish the season. Of course, the Cougars also finished strong, winning three in a row. They also scored wins over Baylor and Boise State during the season. BYU also hit the over in six of the team’s seven wins.
Frisco Bowl: Boise State vs. North Texas
ATS Record: Boise State 6-6-1, North Texas 7-6
O/U Record: Boise State 6-7, North Texas 8-5
Both of these teams lost in their conference championship game, so they’ll be a little disappointed heading into a bowl game two weeks later. Despite playing in the C-USA title game, the Mean Green fell apart late in the season, losing two of its last three games and going 0-3 ATS in those games. On the bright side, North Texas went 4-4 ATS as an underdog this year, including a pair of wins.
The Broncos, meanwhile, had won six of their last seven games before losing the Mountain West Championship Game against Fresno State. Over their last eight games, they went 4-2 ATS when they were favored by at least 10 points, which is where the line opened in this game. The Broncos also had five wins this year against bowl-eligible teams whereas UNT only beat one team that finished with a winning record.
MORE BOWL GUIDES: DEC. 19-24 | DEC. 26-28 | DEC. 29-31 | CFP GAMES | JAN. 2
BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of this week's best college football bets, plus what the model is projecting for every NFL, NBA, NHL and college basketball game! Start your free trial today!