ACC Championship preview and predictions

Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Let's be honest, this isn't the ACC Championship game anyone would have been expected when this season kicked off. Duke is 7-5 and unrated, was one of five teams that went 6-2 in the ACC, but through a complicated system of tie-breakers is in the Championship ahead of #12 ranked Miami (10-2) and #22 ranked Georgia Tech (9-3). Somehow, despite losing to Virginia three weeks ago 34-17, Duke opened as just a 2.5 point underdog against the Cavaliers. The Blue Devils have the chance to make CFP history, and not in a good way, as if they win, there is a real chance that no single team from the ACC makes it to the CFP. Miami has a case for getting an at-large bid ahead of Notre Dame, given the CFP ranking criteria, but a Blue Devils win would likely mean that either Tulane or North Texas would get in for winning the American Conference, and James Madison would get the 5th champions spot if they can win against Troy in the Sun Belt Championship.

Virginia would earn a spot in the CFP if they can pick up another win against Duke as their current ranking puts them ahead of any of the Group of 5 champions, and could potentially help bolster the case for Miami grabbing the number 10 spot. The Cavaliers finished 7-1 in the ACC outscoring opponents by over 13 points per game on average. They've proven they have the tools to beat Duke, which makes the spread of 3.5 points all that much more surprising, especially when their win against the Blue Devils came on the road. This is the best season Virgina has had since 2019, when they also made it to the ACC title game, but got destroyed 62-17 by Clemson. In fact, Virginia hasn't played in a Bowl game since 2019 when they lost in the Orange Bowl to Florida.

The BetQL computer is predicting Virginia to win 60% of the time with a projected final score of 31.5-28. Duke has an offense that can put up a decent score, but their defense allows nearly 30 points per game on average. Our tip: check out the over/under 57.5 total points on Fanatics Sportsbook.