Big 10 rivals face off in the CFP semifinal as Oregon looks to avenge their only loss of the season as they take on Curt Cignetti's undefeated Indiana. These two teams faced each other back in October with Indiana coming away with a 30-20 win at Oregon. We said it in our CFP preview and our Big 10 Championship preview that the loss might have actually helped Oregon's chances as the #5 seed they had one of the easiest paths in the CFP. The Ducks went on to prove us right with an easy 51-34 win in round 1 against JMU and a 23-0 thumping of Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. Indiana on the other hand had a bye in the first round thanks to their undefeated record, and then showed why they've been the best team in the country this season taking down Alabama 38-3 in a Rose Bowl blowout. The Hoosiers are scoring over 41 points per game (3rd best in college football) while only allowing 10.3 points per game (2nd best in college football) behind Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. The Ducks are no slouches either scoring 38.1 points per game (11th best) and allowing just 15.1 points per game (6th best).
Indiana opened as 4 point favorites, but we've seen line movement taking them to a 3.5 point favorite currently. The BetQL computer model has the projected final score as 22.5-18 for the Hoosiers. Our tip, take a look at the over/under where the current line is 47.5. We've got the projected total as 40.5 so we're taking the Under, currently at -112 on FanDuel Sportsbook.