Target Early Totals for These Two NBA Teams

Is anyone out there feeling a little confused when it comes to betting on NBA sides this season? I sure am! One night I think I have a great angle and the opposite thing happens. The next night I'm not overly confident in a bet and it wins with ease. I suppose that's just sports betting for you.

When this happens, I often turn to derivatives. First-quarter player props, team totals, early-game overs and others are all viable options when you're not finding value on a full-game side or total.

The Phoenix Suns and Washington Wizards are two teams in particular that I think are worth betting on early in games.

Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns have one of the better scorers in the league in Devin Booker, who poured in 58 points Saturday against the Pelicans, marking his second 50-point performance of the season. He's scored in the 40s three different times and has 30-plus points on 10 different occasions this year. When you hear numbers like that, it would be understandable to jump to the conclusion that the Suns are scoring a ton of points every night. While they rank in the top 10 in points per game, they're actually just 14-15-1 O/U coming into Monday.

That's especially true in the first half, where Phoenix has hit the under in 20 of 30 games this season. That equates to +9.1 units and an ROI of 27.6%, making the Suns the most profitable first-half under team in the league.

What's interesting is that if you look at their full-game totals, they are 14-15-1 for a loss of -0.40 units. So why is this the case? Well, the Suns start out games playing really good defense, and end games playing really good offense. In the first half of games, Phoenix has an offensive rating of 112.5, which ranks 18th in the league. They also have a defensive rating of 109.6, which ranks fifth. In the second half of games, those two categories flip. The Suns are the best offensive team in the second half with a rating of 120.1. Defensively, they have a rating of 113.2, dropping them to 22nd in the league.

The moral of the story is that the Suns rely on their defense early in games while their offense shows up late. Therefore, the best way to bet Suns' totals is by taking the under in the first half.

Washington Wizards

I hate the term "lock" in sports betting because nothing in this industry is a lock. But, taking the over in the first quarter of Washington Wizards games might be the closest thing to it in the NBA this season. For whatever reason, the Wizards start games fast, which has resulted in a 23-8 record to the over in the first quarter of their games. That number gets even better at home, where they are 12-3 for an ROI of 49.9% in the first quarter of all games at Capital One Arena.

There are a few reasons for this being the case. For starters, Washington's pace is much faster in the first quarter than in any other quarter. They rank 11th in pace over the game's first 12 minutes before dropping to 26th in the second, 17th in the third, and 22nd in the fourth. Their defense early in games has also been an issue. The Wizards go from 21st in defensive rating in the first quarter to even worse in the second quarter before turning into a top-10 defensive team in the second half of games.

Bettors can take advantage here by targeting the 1Q over in Wizards games until their style of play changes.