NBA Betting Guide: Lines, Trends & Picks For Friday, Dec. 23

Today's NBA Betting Lines, Odds & Picks

Scroll down to check out my favorite play in each game as well as today's top picks from our BetQL model. Take advantage of BetQL's free trial and see all of today's best NBA bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL, NHL, and NCAA football and basketball games! Start your free trial today!

Clippers at 76ers Prediction

The Los Angeles Clippers (19-14 SU, 17-16 ATS, 12-21 O/U) travel to take on the Philadelphia 76ers (18-12 SU, 18-12 ATS, 15-15 O/U) on Friday night. Philadelphia opened as the home favorite which was no surprise; the Sixers have gone 13-5 SU (13-5 ATS) at home this year and have also gone 9-1 ATS at home against teams that have entered the game shooting 46% or better from the field. Under Doc Rivers, the 76ers have also gone 35-10 SU after a blowout win by 15+ points, so there are some solid trends working in the home team’s favor, on top of the fact that they’re riding a six-game winning streak into this one. 

The Clippers have gone 9-2 SU after allowing 105 points or less this season and are also hot at the moment, having won five of the last six contests. Both of these defenses are elite, so if you like betting high-scoring affairs, stay away from this one. Philadelphia owns the 2nd-best Defensive Rating in the NBA (107.9) while Los Angeles ranks 4th (108.4). Meanwhile, the Sixers rank 17th in Offensive Rating (112.0) while the Clippers rank second-worst in the entire Association (108.3). 

Paul George (23.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.0 assists) has been a steady source of production for the Clippers, but LA is still searching for Kawhi Leonard (15.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.3 assists in 26.9 minutes) to return to a superstar level. So far, he hasn’t looked spry and seemingly has no explosiveness as he continues to deal with the effects of a nagging knee ailment. Joel Embiid (32.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists) leads the NBA in scoring and with James Harden (21.4 points, 6.3 rebounds, 10.3 assists) back, this should be a star-studded affair.

MY LEAN: Under 215. These are two elite defensive teams and both don’t allow any easy points. Philly has allowed their opponents to shoot 32.6% from three (best in NBA) while the Clippers rank third in that regard (33.7%). Further, the offenses don’t tend to take advantage of high-percentage opportunities. The Clippers have scored an average of 42.5 points in the paint (2nd-worst) while the Sixers only average 9.8 second-chance points per contest (worst). Give me the under.

Bucks at Nets Preview

Riding an impressive seven-game winning streak, the Brooklyn Nets (20-12 SU, 15-16-1 ATS, 15-17 O/U) will host the Milwaukee Bucks (22-9 SU, 17-12-2 ATS, 16-15 O/U) at Barclays Center on Friday night. Despite Brooklyn’s recent hot streak, there are a few trends to note in Milwaukee’s favor. Under Mike Budenholzer, the Bucks have gone 70-50 ATS after a loss, 24-9 ATS against teams that get called for two or more fouls per game than their opponents on average and 33-13 SU versus teams that make 48% or more of their shots from the field coming into the game.

Winners of seven of their last 10 games, the Bucks are a formidable opponent, though. Milwaukee owns the 3rd-best Defensive Rating in the NBA (108.1) and has cleaned up on the glass with a 74.5% defensive rebounding rate (3rd-best). Why does this matter? The Nets have the league’s worst offensive rebounding rate (22.9%). Therefore, it’s reasonable to assume that the Bucks will control the boards in this matchup. It’s worth noting, though, that Brooklyn owns the 6th-best Offensive Rating (115.0) in the Association and also has the best Effective Field Goal Percentage (58.0) and True Shooting Percentage (61.3%) in the entire league. Therefore, they’ve been more efficient shooters than any other team.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.6 points, 11.2 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 33.0 minutes) has been performing at a ridiculous level yet again while Jrue Holiday (18.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 7.6 assists) has been a solid secondary source of offensive production. The Bucks have eased Khris Middleton (11.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists in 24.4 minutes) back into action coming off of his injury and when they get his production back, their team will benefit greatly. Kevin Durant (30.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists) and Kyrie Irving (26.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists) have both been stellar for Brooklyn, who will need them both to keep producing as usual in this Eastern Conference battle.

MY LEAN: Nets +120 ML. Brooklyn has turned the corner lately and as they showed in their 91-point first half in their last game against the Warriors (the third most points in a half in NBA history), they can explode offensively at any point. I don’t expect anything remotely close to that output to happen against Milwaukee’s solid defense, but I’m still giving the edge to Brooklyn at home.

Grizzlies at Suns Preview

In our third and final highlighted game of the day, the Phoenix Suns (19-13 SU, 17-15 ATS, 15-16-1 O/U) will host the Memphis Grizzlies (19-11 SU, 15-13-2 ATS, 14-15-1 O/U). There are a number of important trends in favor of both teams that should be noted. Under Monty Williams, the Suns have gone 63-39 ATS having won two of their last three games, 86-61 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record, 37-21 ATS coming off an upset loss as a favorite, 46-27 SU when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 60-70% and 38-19 ATS in the first half coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Meanwhile, under Taylor Jenkins, the Grizzlies have gone 50-27 ATS in the first half after allowing 105 points or less, 31-20 SU after two or more consecutive losses, 25-13 SU coming off a double-digit road loss and 29-13 SU when playing with two days of rest. 

Per usual, the Suns boast a dominant and efficient offense. They own the NBA’s best Offensive Rating (116.6) and best assist-to-turnover ratio (2.04). While the Grizzlies are less efficient offensively, they do crash the offensive glass at an elite rate (32.5% offensive rebounding percentage - 2nd-best in NBA) and also score the most points in the paint per game (57.9) on average. This will be a strength vs. strength matchup, as the Grizzlies come into this matchup with the 5th-best Defensive Rating. 

Ja Morant (27.0 points, 6.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists) has been sensational all year, but this Grizzlies team is missing Desmond Bane (24.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists), who has been out due to injury. Devin Booker (28.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists) is questionable to play in this game, but luckily both Chris Paul (12.1 points, 4.8 rebounds, 9.1 assists) and Deandre Ayton (17.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.0 assists) are back in Phoenix’s lineup.

MY LEAN: Suns +110 ML. After winning seven consecutive games, the Grizz have dropped two in a row while the Suns have won three of their last four. It’s very difficult for me to trust Memphis, so I’m going to roll with the home team to grab the victory.

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