MLB Betting Playbook for Tuesday, May 3
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - May 3, 2022, 2:39pm EDTMLB Betting Playbook for Tuesday
Tuesday brings us a full MLB schedule plus a bonus game with the Mets-Braves doubleheader. That should give bettors plenty of opportunities to find value. It will be even easier when you get insight from the BetQL model and the latest trends, which is exactly what we’re here to provide.
One trend to note is that the BetQL model continues to rake on moneyline picks, going 53-28 (66%) in the past week for a total return of $518 on $100 bets. It has been even better on 5-inning moneyline picks in that span, going 46-22 (68%) for a total return of $796 on $100 bets! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest MLB betting lines here: Latest MLB Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert MLB picks
MLB BEST BET
Cardinals-Royals Over 7 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
One of the biggest trends during the early part of the season has been the inordinate number of games falling under the run total. Right now, only six teams have hit the over in at least 50% of their games. However, oddsmakers have started to adjust, lowering run totals, which is why it might be time to start looking at the over. As a result, the BetQL is giving five stars to the Royals and Cardinals scoring more than seven runs on Tuesday.
Granted, these teams combined for just one run when they played on Monday. But that was a day game that followed a travel day, so pitchers had an inherent advantage. That won’t be the case on Tuesday, especially with the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Tommy Edman all on fire for the Cardinals over the last week, meaning the St. Louis lineup should be ready to tee off.
It’s also worth noting that the Royals have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors right now. Whether the game is close or not, the Cardinals are a good candidate to do some damage in the late innings, helping to push the total over seven runs. Also, don’t overlook the Kansas City lineup. While some usual suspects like Salvador Perez and Whit Merrifield have struggled lately, Andrew Benintendi and rookie Bobby Witt have heated up lately, giving the Royals enough firepower to push a few runs across the board and get more than seven runs on the board in this game.
TOP PLAYER PROP
Bruce Zimmermann Over 4.5 Strikeouts. I love the under in this game due to the pitching matchup between Bruce Zimmermann (1-1, 0.93 ERA) and Joe Ryan (3-1, 1.17 ERA). The Orioles pushed back and raised their left field fence which might be one of the reasons why the under has gone 8-1 (89%) in Baltimore’s home games, but I also like Zimmermann’s strikeout prop. In his last three outings (against the Yankees at home and then on the road against the Angels and Yankees again), the lefty struck out six, six and five batters, respectively. The Twins have struck out an average of 9.04 times per game this season, 7th-most in the Majors. -- Dan Karpuc
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
The Braves took the series opener on Monday night, although the Mets are a perfect 7-0 coming off a loss this season, which bodes well for them in the first game of the doubleheader.
With Kyle Wright on the mound, Atlanta will be favored in the second game of Tuesday’s doubleheader against the Mets. The Braves are just 2-2 SU as a road favorite this year, although the Mets lost their only other game this year as a home underdog.
In addition to being 15-8 on the season, the Padres are 12-5 ATS as a favorite, making them the second-most reliable favorite in the big leagues. San Diego is also 8-3 SU as a road favorite while Terry Francona is just 13-22 against the NL West during his time in Cleveland.
The Diamondbacks withstood a late rally by the Marlins to win Monday’s series opener 5-4. But Arizona is still averaging just 3.3 runs per game while the Marlins are 29-14 over the last two years against National League teams that score less than four runs per game. During his time in Miami, Don Mattingly is also 102-65 (.610) against NL West opponents.
This game brings together two of the six teams that have hit the over at least 50% of the time this season. Both the Phillies and Rangers are scoring more than four runs per game and giving up more than four runs per game, helping them to combine to go 21-20-4 O/U this year.
With Monday’s win in Baltimore, the Twins have won 11 of their last 12 games SU. However, Monday's game was a one-run game, meaning Baltimore is 13-10 ATS this season, including 7-3 ATS as a home underdog despite being 8-15 SU overall.
Monday’s win over the Blue Jays was the 10th in a row for the Yankees, giving them the best record in baseball. However, Tuesday’s game will be the first time the Yankees have been underdogs this season. They will do so against a Toronto team that’s 12-4 SU as a favorite but only 4-12 ATS as a favorite.
Despite being 9-14 SU this year, the over/under of 8.5 runs is a good omen for the Red Sox. Under Alex Cora, Boston is 41-18 when the run total is between 7 and 8.5 and 10-2 at home when the total is either 8 or 8.5 runs.
If these two teams combined their records, they’d be 11 games under .500. Both have been bad so far, but the Pirates have lost nine of their last 10 games against American League teams that have a losing record.
The battle for the Windy City begins with both teams sitting at 9-13 heading into Tuesday’s game. The White Sox are also 9-13 ATS and just 6-10 ATS when favored. Likewise, the Cubs are 10-6 ATS this year as an underdog.
The Reds have been historically bad this season, winning just one of their last 18 games and losing six in a row. The only silver lining on Tuesday is that Milwaukee is just 9-11 ATS as a favorite this season.
The Cards beat the Royals 1-0 at home on Monday in a rain makeup before the teams move to Kansas City on Tuesday. But with Monday’s loss, the Royals have now lost nine in a row when facing a team with a winning record.
The Astros won the series opener on Monday, giving these teams an identical 12-11 SU record this year. However, the Mariners are 14-9 ATS, which is the fourth-best record in the majors, while the Astros are just 11-12 ATS.
The over/under of 10.5 runs in this game might actually be a little conservative since both starting pitchers have an ERA over 5.00 and the game is at Coors Field. The Rockies are also one of the few teams that have hit the over more than the under this season.
After Tampa won the series opener on Monday, the A’s have lost four in a row. However, Oakland is 51-36 against left-handed starters over the last three seasons. The Rays are also just 6-14 ATS as a favorite this season.
This should be the best game of the night and a battle of power vs power. The Dodgers are 14-7 overall and also 14-7 ATS, which is the best ATS record in the majors. But the Giants are 3-2 ATS when they’ve been an underdog this year.
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