Dan Karpuc: Twins-Orioles Under 7.5
The under has gone 8-1 (89%) in Baltimore so far this season and this matchup features two starting pitchers off to hot starts: Minnesota’s Joe Ryan (3-1, 1.17 ERA) and Baltimore’s Bruce Zimmermann (1-1, 0.93 ERA). The Orioles have been held to two or fewer runs in four of their last six games, while the Twins have been inconsistent at the plate so far. Yes, Minnesota has the ability to go over this number by themselves if they’re on, but I have a firm belief that the decision to raise the height and increase the distance of the left field fence is having a massive effect at Camden Yards so far. I’m going to keep up with that hypothesis and hopefully take advantage of this trend.
Lucy Burdge: Cardinals ML -115 at Royals
The Cardinals are coming off a win and they’ve won three of their last five games so I think they can get it done here tonight against the Royals. A trend favoring the Cardinals here is the team is 36-22 vs. good fielding teams averaging less than or equal to 0.6 errors per game while on the road over the last two years. They’re also 42-25 vs. a starting pitcher with good control, less than 1.75 walks per start over the last two years. With all of this in mind, I love the Cardinals to get a win here over the Royals to kick off this quick two-game series.
Brad Pinkerton: Brewers -1.5 vs. Reds
Not enough value in the moneyline here with Brewers -245, but I'll back Milwaukee on the run line with Brandon Woodruff on the mound at home against the awful Reds. Cincinnati has lost six straight with five of those losses by more than a run, and is just 6-16 ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Brewers have been covering very well lately after a shaky start to the season, going 9-4 against the run line in their last 13 games and covering in five of their last seven at home.
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