MLB Best Bets: BetQL Staff Picks For Wednesday, May 4
Find out which bets we're targeting for today's MLB games
Brad Pinkerton - May 4, 2022, 3:44pm EDTToday's MLB Best Bets
Dan Karpuc: Rockies -1.5 vs. Nationals
Patrick Corbin (0-4, 8.69) is pitching at Coors Field. That’s bad news for the Nationals. In five starts, the former elite, front-line starter has allowed 19 earned runs on 28 hits in 19.2 innings and owns a 2.08 WHIP. It’s a small sample size for this season, but a continuation of a disastrous 2021 campaign in which he went 9-16 with a 5.82 ERA and a ridiculous 37 home runs allowed. Per FanGraphs, 36.1% of batted balls have been fly balls against Corbin so far; that’s above his 30.0% career mark. That’s another bad sign in the thin Colorado air. Austin Gomber (1-2, 3.86 ERA) should get enough run support to give his team a chance to win by two or more. Since the start of last season, the Rockies have gone 7-2 SU and 8-1 vs. the run line in Gomber’s home starts. Give me the Rockies -1.5.
Lucy Burdge: Brewers -280 ML vs. Reds
The Brewers are coming off a win over the Reds and they’ve also won five of their last seven games. So they’re not doing too shabby right now. Some trends favoring them to win are that Craig Counsell is 66-31 SU when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 38 percent or worse while managing Milwaukee, and 89-66 when playing on Wednesday while managing Milwaukee. Plus, the Brewers are averaging 4.09 runs scored per game and the Reds are averaging 3.05 runs scored per game, so I really like the Brewers to get the win in this one.
Brad Pinkerton: Twins -140 at Orioles
This is a nice price on a team that's won four straight and 11 of its last 12 going against one of the worst teams in baseball. The Twins are 12-2 SU this season against AL teams allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game, and 12-3 against teams that strike out at least seven times per game. Meanwhile, Brandon Hyde is 8-44 when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 62% or better while coaching Baltimore.
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