MLB Betting Playbook for Wednesday, May 4
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - May 4, 2022, 3:45pm EDTMLB Betting Playbook for Wednesday
Wednesday’s MLB schedule has a little bit of everything. There are day games, night games and two doubleheaders after a pair of rainouts yesterday. In other words, there are betting options galore if you know what you’re looking for. That’s why we’re here to supply some of the best bets and intriguing trends ahead of Wednesday’s action on the diamond.
One trend to note is that the BetQL model remains red-hot at the plate, hitting better than 55% of all its MLB picks this season. In the last three days alone, it's been especially strong on all run line picks (13-9, 59%) and moneyline picks (15-7, 68%), raking in a total return of $952 on $100 bets in those categories combined. BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass and see our best bets across all sports!
Odds in this article are subject to change. Check the latest MLB betting lines here: Latest MLB Odds | Latest Over/Under | Expert MLB picks
MLB BEST BET
Twins-Orioles Over 7.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
After the Twins and Orioles combined for nine runs on Tuesday (BetQL rated over 7 as a ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ pick), the BetQL model is favoring these two teams to combine for more than 7.5 runs again on Wednesday. Our model is projecting 8.5 runs, helping to make this another ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ pick.
On paper, the Orioles are just 7-16-1 O/U on the season. However, it’s important to remember that they failed to hit the over during their first 11 games of the season. Over the last couple of weeks, they’ve been a lot more balanced on the over/under front. Baltimore’s offense has picked up during that time, as the Orioles have scored at least four runs in seven of their last 12 games.
Meanwhile, the Twins have been red-hot, winning 11 of their last 12 games. Over their last 10 games, they have averaged six runs per game. Even if Minnesota Dylan Bundy can keep the Orioles in check after his excellent start to the season, Baltimore youngster Kyle Bradish could have a tough time slowing down the Twins in his second career start. The bottom line is that an inexperienced pitcher against a hot lineup is a recipe for more than 7.5 runs being scored.
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
The D’Backs might be getting their act together, winning six of their last eight games, including a pair of one-run wins over the Marlins the last two days, giving them a chance to earn a sweep on Wednesday. However, the Marlins are 9-1 under Don Mattingly after suffering back-to-back one-run losses.
After a rainout on Tuesday, these teams will attempt to play a doubleheader on Wednesday. While both teams have been bad, the Pirates are in a little worse shape, losing nine of their last 10 games against American League teams that have a losing record.
The Padres have started the season 15-8, including a 12-5 ATS record as a favorite. That gives them the second-best winning percentage ATS as a favorite in the big leagues. San Diego is also 8-3 SU as a road favorite.
The Royals earned a 7-1 win over St. Louis on Tuesday, dropping the Cardinals to 2-2 SU as road favorites this year. Meanwhile, the Royals improved to 4-5 SU as home underdogs, which doesn’t sound that great but is actually the seventh-best record for a home underdog in the majors.
The Mets swept a doubleheader on Tuesday but still need to win on Wednesday to continue their run of winning every series this season. The good news is New York is 9-3 SU as a home favorite this year. But with two losses on Tuesday, Atlanta has lost four of five and the Braves are 64-42 under Brian Snitker after losing four of five games.
The Astros are on the verge of a sweep, outscoring the Mariners 7-0 over the first two games of the series. But keep in mind that Seattle is 14-10 ATS this year, which is one of the best ATS records in the majors. Of course, the Astros are 4-2 SU as home favorites.
With a 10-7 win on Tuesday, the Rays are aiming for a three-game road sweep of Oakland on Wednesday. In a unique twist, the road team has won Oakland’s last six games, which is unfortunate for the A’s because it’s led to a five-game losing streak and has helped drop them to 4-8 at home.
In their first 22 games of the season, the Pirates have been outscored by 41 runs. While the Tigers also have a negative run differential, under A.J. Hinch, Detroit is 41-21 against teams that are being outscored by at least .5 runs per game.
Under Terry Francona, Cleveland is just 13-22 against teams from the NL West. Heading into Wednesday’s doubleheader, the Guardians are also 1-3 ATS as home underdogs, which is bad news since they are set to be underdogs in both games.
While it’s been a rough start to the season for Texas, the Rangers have won three in a row and could get themselves out of last place with another win on Wednesday. After beating the Phillies on Tuesday, Texas has now won seven straight road games as a road underdog against NL East teams.
The Twins are raging hot with 11 wins in their last 12 games, including the first two games of their series against the Orioles. The Twins are also averaging six runs per game over their last 10 games, which should help against one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Yet, the Orioles are 7-4 ATS as a home underdog.
New York’s winning streak is up to 11 games after the Yankees won in Toronto on Tuesday in their first game of the season as an underdog. The Yankees are back to being favorites on Wednesday and are 7-3 SU as road favorites in 2022.
The struggling Red Sox got a much-needed win on Tuesday, beating the Angels 4-0. While the Halos continue to get good pitching, allowing just 3.8 runs per game this season, Boston is 15-2 over the last two years against teams that give up 3.9 runs per game or less.
Cincinnati’s joke of a season continues, the Reds lost their seventh in a row on Tuesday and have now lost 18 of their last 19 games. Of course, there’s no value in picking the Brewers to win SU. However, Milwaukee is 7-5 ATS as a home favorite, covering 58% of the time in those situations.
After losing to their Windy City rivals on Tuesday, the Cubs are in a deep hole, winning just three of their last 13 games. It gets even worse, as the Cubs have scored just six total runs in their last five games, although two of those five games have actually hit the over.
Under Bud Black, the Rockies have been a subpar home favorite, going 61-70 SU with a moneyline between -125 and -175 at Coors Field. However, the Rox are 5-3 SU as a home favorite this year and will be Washington lefty Patrick Corbin, who is 0-4 with an 8.69 ERA over his first five starts of 2022.
The Dodgers beat the Giants 3-1 on Tuesday, giving them a chance to earn a two-game sweep on Wednesday. Los Angeles is now 9-2 at home this season. Meanwhile, the Giants are 8-4 on the road but just 1-4 when they’re an underdog on the road.
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