Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Suspension Projected To Have Surprising Impact On Padres
After trading for Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Brandon Drury and Josh Hader, the loss of Tatis won’t be as damaging as expected
Dan Karpuc - Aug 16, 2022, 1:54pm EDTFernando Tatis Jr. Suspended 80 Games
Fernando Tatis Jr. slashed .282/.364/.611, hit 42 home runs, drove in 97 runs, stole 25 bases and scored 99 runs in 130 games last season before signing a 14-year, $340 million extension. He’s been out all year with an injury, but was recently rehabbing and slated to return to a roster that now includes Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Brandon Drury and Josh Hader, all of whom were acquired before the trade deadline.
Instead, he was busted for PED use and will be suspended for 80 games, which will prevent him from taking the field this season.
The obvious reaction to this news was that Tatis was selfish. Padres GM A.J. Preller publicly called out the shortstop, as did a number of his veteran teammates. The coinciding reaction by Padres fans and futures bettors alike was panic. How can this team possibly still compete for a World Series title without Tatis’ contributions? How will they even make noise in the postseason? Will they even get there?
Fernando Tatis Jr. Suspended 80 Games
Fernando Tatis Jr. slashed .282/.364/.611, hit 42 home runs, drove in 97 runs, stole 25 bases and scored 99 runs in 130 games last season before signing a 14-year, $340 million extension. He’s been out all year with an injury, but was recently rehabbing and slated to return to a roster that now includes Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Brandon Drury and Josh Hader, all of whom were acquired before the trade deadline.
Instead, he was busted for PED use and will be suspended for 80 games, which will prevent him from taking the field this season.
The obvious reaction to this news was that Tatis was selfish. Padres GM A.J. Preller publicly called out the shortstop, as did a number of his veteran teammates. The coinciding reaction by Padres fans and futures bettors alike was panic. How can this team possibly still compete for a World Series title without Tatis’ contributions? How will they even make noise in the postseason? Will they even get there?
Simulation Results
After simulating each game of the regular season 10,000 times, BetQL’s Simulation Model is projecting Tatis’ terrible decision-making to have zero impact on the Padres as far as their playoff probability is concerned. They’re projected to finish 91-71 with an 85% chance to make the playoffs, exactly the same as if Tatis returned.
At 65-53 at the time of this writing, San Diego is holding on to the third NL Wild Card spot, just a half-game behind the Phillies for the second spot, 2.0 games ahead of the Brewers and 5.5 games in front of the Giants. Since the Dodgers are 80-34 and miles ahead of the Padres in the NL West standings, Tatis’ return clearly wouldn’t have resulted in a division win.
Jurickson Profar, Soto, Manny Machado, Bell, Drury, Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham, Wil Myers and platooned catchers Jorge Alfaro and Austin Nola make up a solid lineup while starting pitchers Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger are one of the best rotations in the game. While Hader is the team’s option in the ninth inning, other bullpen pieces like Luis Garcia, Nabil Crismatt, Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez have been serviceable. In the postseason, I would expect one or the starting pitchers (most likely Snell) to be used in a relief role, which makes this team appealing.
In all, Tatis’ absence certainly won’t help the Padres, but it also isn’t going to be a barrier for them to make the playoffs and potentially even contend, according to our model.
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