MLB Playbook: Betting Lines, Odds & Picks for Wednesday, Oct. 5
Today's MLB betting odds, trends and picks you need to know
Bryan Zarpentine - Oct 5, 2022, 10:19am EDT
MLB Betting Playbook for Wednesday
We’ve made it to the final day of the MLB season. All 15 games on Wednesday’s schedule will get started this afternoon, meaning there are 15 simultaneous games to monitor. Before the action gets started, let’s take a closer look at the best bets available and the key trends for each game.
One trend to note is that the BetQL MLB model is finishing the season strong, going 66-27 (71%) on all moneyline picks rated three stars and higher in the past 14 days for a total return of $1,427! BetQL subscribers can see more betting trends and all of our best bets with star ratings for every game throughout the postseason.
Take advantage of BetQL's free 3-day trial and see all of today's best MLB bets, plus what the model is projecting for this week's NFL and college football games! Start your free trial today!
MLB BEST BET
Brewers -170 vs. D-backs ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
While the Milwaukee Brewers have already been eliminated from the playoffs, they have had their way with the Diamondbacks during the first two games of this series. They look poised to keep that up in the season finale on Wednesday. Oddsmakers list the Brewers as -170 favorites, but the BetQL model lists Milwaukee’s moneyline at -250 and gives the Brewers a 71% chance of winning. That makes this a five-star pick in Milwaukee’s favor.
The Diamondbacks may not be mailing it in, but they’ve won just three of their last 11 games. They are also coming off a shutout loss on Tuesday and have to face Corbin Burnes, who tossed eight scoreless innings against the Marlins in his last start. That could make it difficult for Arizona’s lineup to get going while Burnes goes for his 13th win of the season. On the other side, Merrill Kelly has hit a late-season slump of his own. Kelly had a 2.97 ERA heading into September. But that number has risen to 3.43 with Kelly posting a 5.40 ERA in September. On top of that, the Diamondbacks have lost four of his last five starts, a trend that points toward another Milwaukee win on Wednesday.
TODAY'S MLB GAMES & BETTING TRENDS
After a rainout yesterday, these teams have to play two games on the final day. Of the 17 previous games between these two teams this season, 13 have ended with at least eight total runs while 10 of the 17 have finished with at least 10 total runs.
The Angels are giving Shohei Ohtani one more start on the mound to close out 2022. The Angels would also like to avoid ending their season by getting swept by the A’s, who have won three in a row. The good news for the Halos is Ohtani posted a 1.09 ERA in September, helping the Angels win his last six starts with Ohtani getting the win in five of those games.
These teams split a doubleheader on Tuesday, giving the Yankees one last chance to get to 100 wins on the season. Despite losing the second game of the doubleheader, the Yankees have won 10 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. Yet, they are just 6-8 with Domingo German on the mound this season.
With a St. Louis win on Tuesday, the Pirates suffered their 100th loss of the season. They have also fallen a game behind the Reds into last place in the NL Central. That means the Pirates need a win and some help to avoid finishing alone at the bottom of the division. The good news is Pittsburgh is 26-16 ATS during the second half of the last two seasons when hosting a team with a winning record.
No matter what happens in Wednesday’s doubleheader, the Blue Jays are locked into the top AL wild-card spot and will host a series starting on Friday. But they do have a four-game winning streak heading into Wednesday, so they may want to maintain that momentum heading into the postseason and play their regulars.
The Guardians have won 91 games this year, but they’d like to win one more to maintain their late-season momentum heading into Friday’s wild-card opener against the Rays. While Aaron Civale has had an up-and-down year, Cleveland has won six of the last seven games he’s started.
The Rays have fallen to the bottom of the wild-card standings, although they are in the postseason. But a loss on Wednesday would send them to the playoffs on a five-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the home team has won Boston’s last eight games, which bodes well for the Red Sox in the season finale.
Cincinnati’s offensive slump late in the year has been something else, as the Reds have scored three runs or less in 21 of their last 25 games. However, they’ve managed to beat the Cubs in back-to-back games and can finish the season with a sweep at home. The Cubs haven’t had much luck offensively lately either, as seven of their last eight games have hit the under.
The Braves managed to wrap up the NL East title and a first-round bye on Tuesday, so they might be inclined to take it easy on Wednesday. If not, it's worth mentioning that they are 34-9 (.791) when facing a team with a winning percentage between .380 and .460, which is a good sign against the Marlins, who have a .422 winning percentage.
The Padres have a chance to sweep the Giants heading into the postseason whereas San Francisco needs to win to finish this year with a .500 record. San Francisco’s problem is they are just 5-13 against the Padres this season.
The Mariners swept a doubleheader from the Tigers on Tuesday, giving them a chance to win three in a row before starting their wild-card series in Toronto on Friday. They have the added benefit of Detroit losing 13 straight day games against American League opponents with a winning record. However, Marco Gonzales hasn’t won a game since August with Seattle going 2-3 during his five starts in September.
The Phillies are in the playoffs and locked into the final wild-card spot, so Wednesday’s rubber match in Houston doesn’t mean anything to them outside of preparation. Meanwhile, the Astros will want to stay sharp with five days of rest coming their way. Houston is also 8-2 when Framber Valdez starts since the beginning of August.
The Mets got to 100 wins on Tuesday after sweeping a doubleheader from the Nats, although they still have to play in the wild-card round. That means they may not put their best foot forward on Wednesday. Of course, Washington is just 2-5 in Erick Fedde’s starts since he returned from the IL in August.
The Twins are in danger of losing five in a row to finish the season whereas the White Sox need a win to finish with a winning record in 2022. While the White Sox have underperformed offensively this year, the Twins are just 7-21 (.250) during the second half of the season when playing an American League team on the road that’s batting .260 or worse.
The Brewers can’t make the playoffs, but they can finish the season with a sweep of the Diamondbacks and improve upon their .534 winning percentage. However, Arizona has been 18-4 ATS and 14-8 (.636) SU this year when facing a team with a winning percentage between .510 and .540.
The Dodgers have been kings of the National League all season, although they run the risk of heading into the postseason on the heels of a four-game losing streak if they don’t win on Wednesday. But they do have Clayton Kershaw lined up to pitch on Wednesday and the Dodgers have won his last five starts with Kershaw posting a 1.50 ERA in September.
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